Is there value in the Colts spread?

[Wikeman]

Mathematically there is. According to the Sagarin ratings the spread should be 3-4 tops, maybe even down to pk...

Just like there was plenty of value in the Bengals spread, Cowboys spread and the Redskins spread:hang:

Defenses look strong on paper... until they meet the Pats. Will that repeat itself this week, so we hit the over AGAIN?

 

[allsmiley]

home dog
manning a better qb than the colts
manning got the pats number of late
colts can win this game +the pts is a plus.

 

[Throwback420]

Asked whether he believes the Colts should be an underdog, Peyton Manning says he thinks it should be a "pick-'em" game.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I thought the original caption to that pic was

When asked for what kind of performance he had faced from Brady in the AFC title game, Manning dug deep for just the right answer

 

[Wikeman]

I guess the key point here is whether you play with your gut or by the numbers.

"Pats will kill the Colts" is the obvious gut play. Backing the Colts is like shooting yourself in both legs and jumping into shark water. You know what sharks are capable of.

"Colts will eek out a victory" is the play by the numbers. The dry numbers say that Colts +6 is a steal.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl07.htm

I am an educated man, how can I not play the numbers, so my play is:
Colts +6, -105 .....6 units
Colts ML, +215 .....2 units

Looking for more opinions/angles on this game. I'm not too proud to space walk out of my play :36_1_23:

Marvin Harrison might play, but will that really help if he hasn't practiced? I'd say "no". The Colts don't need invalids out there for sure.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d803d0d3f&template=with-video&confirm=true

 

[Wikeman]

Anyone got sportsinsight % on this?

I don't much like that the line on the Colts still seems to rise.

Contrary to what everyone says, I don't think there's much overweight of action on the Pats, if at all. Many media NFL experts have been calling non-stop for betting Colts as the smart play.

So if the line keeps rising it is slightly shady.

 

[Blue_Chip]

The value is the Patriots not laying double digits... I'm serious

 

[Skinnysmallzz]

49661 bets 66% on the pats

 

[Wikeman]

49661 bets 66% on the pats

Is that Sportsinsights, the money ratio?

How about this one for what the public is on?
http://games.espn.go.com/pigskin/whopickedwhomSpread?entryIDFrom=null&change=no

 

[Skinnysmallzz]

66% on the pats for the spread
69% on the colts ml

 

[Wikeman]

Thanks Skinny, if those the real money ratios, then that looks sound enough.:tiphat:

 

[Skinnysmallzz]

i bet the colt backers are waiting for more points so this should change by gametime

 

[ATLHawksBandwagon]

This spread has gotta be skewed by the Patriots running up the score, if the Colts won by as much as they could every week, this spread would be different, you have to assume. So, I think there is value in Indy.