Is it worth juicing out to middle the BC game tonight?

[Spartaneers]

I got the Noles at -3 105 and now see 6.5. Is it worth losing a few bucks on vig to hope for a FSU win between 4, 5 and 6?

Rudimentary, but I would appreciate any advice.

 

[RetroVK]

Yup. I would weight it to the value number though.

So you have fsu -3, I would only take part of my bet and take back at the 6.5. The 6.5 is presumably fair market, the -3 is presumably a great bet. So weight it so that you win if the -3 comes in with fsu by 7 or more. Small amount on bc 6.5.

my two cents.

To be honest, I keep almost all of my great bets like yours with FSU but it should be worth it to play some of it back and go for the middle.

Hope that makes sense

 

[bull]

Yup. I would weight it to the value number though.

So you have fsu -3, I would only take part of my bet and take back at the 6.5. The 6.5 is presumably fair market, the -3 is presumably a great bet. So weight it so that you win if the -3 comes in with fsu by 7 or more. Small amount on bc 6.5.

my two cents.

To be honest, I keep almost all of my great bets like yours with FSU but it should be worth it to play some of it back and go for the middle.

Hope that makes sense

vk - How about Florida State -4 1/2 @ -101
6 for a result is the only number realistically, so I think I will pass, even tho 6 would look good if it went OT. Wish I had bet it at 3. Had I done so, I would have LET IT RIDE
GL with whatever

 

[RetroVK]

Has less value obviously. The middle at the 3 also allows for siding the game when it lands 3. I would just hold my bet at 4.5 .. but to be fair, I am stupid and would usually just keep all of minus 3 too.

 

[Spartaneers]

Yup. I would weight it to the value number though.

So you have fsu -3, I would only take part of my bet and take back at the 6.5. The 6.5 is presumably fair market, the -3 is presumably a great bet. So weight it so that you win if the -3 comes in with fsu by 7 or more. Small amount on bc 6.5.

my two cents.

To be honest, I keep almost all of my great bets like yours with FSU but it should be worth it to play some of it back and go for the middle.

Hope that makes sense

This is what I did, thanks

 

[booksbestfriend]

If we do not win this game, do you think BC blows the doors off? I feel we win, but approached it small with winning margin prop bets.

BC to win

1-6 (+375)
7-12 (+700)
13-18 (+1500)
19-24 (+2800)

Then it gets ridiculous. Putting .1* on the first 4 is a good way of hedging if you aren’t comfortable with your original wager.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I don't think BC will cover. Ville game was just a strange second half, UVA has no D, BC sucks at home, FSU playing well on road. They have lost games but generally play well. They are much better than BC and I think crush. GL

 

[rambler882]

I've been in this spot and for me it ties to how big is your wager? I tend to bet 1u 75% of the time so beating a line is just gravy. If you are talking about a GIANT bet at -3...then I'd say there is value in hedging.

 

[B.A.R.]

If we do not win this game, do you think BC blows the doors off? I feel we win, but approached it small with winning margin prop bets.

BC to win

1-6 (+375)
7-12 (+700)
13-18 (+1500)
19-24 (+2800)

Then it gets ridiculous. Putting .1* on the first 4 is a good way of hedging if you aren’t comfortable with your original wager.

Dayum, did it go higher than that?

 

[RetroVK]

Went
25 to 31
33 to 38

Hey...

Sorry outcome wasnt better original poster. All we can do is get the best of it and pray

 

[s--k]

A game like this is an example of how hard it is to pick games when you get deeper in the season. I mean not to talk for anyone else but just me every year when we get to this point. Several of us said that FSU can't be trusted after the WF game. I've speculated about CU maybe throwing the towel in. I've read others speculate that maybe Vandy has. But have they? The trouble is my mind can start playing tricks on me...do I trust a team like BC that is playing well and hot right now against a team that has been struggling and just going through the motions?

Like USC at Arizona St. I think I like Arizona St, I like how they've been playing ,but are they really that good? Not much to like about USC right now, can they be that bad again this week? There are other games, we get more games like that every week. Do we trust the team that should be better and can play up to their potential at any given moment, or do we trust the seemingly "inferior" team that is playing well but maybe aren't as good as we think? It's tough. I'm in a pick'em league with about 20 other people, everyone picked FSU tonight. I guess alot of people have a hard time with that question.