Is it time to start fading the Blue Jays? Give me your input on this..

[Gyno]

This team is looking really pathetic and I'm not sure there is an end to it..

Look at their upcoming stretch of games..

4 @ TB
3 @ BOS
2 vs SF
3 @ NYY
3 vs TB
3 vs Bal
4 @ ATL

Thats a tough 22 game stretch..


What do you think about a 22 game Blue Jays fade?

Thoughts..

 

[Toronto_Mike]

fade as long as John Gibbons is manager, the dude doesnt give a fuck.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

At least a couple underachieving veteran starting pitchers, bad stretch, I'd probably bet the other way at the first sign of life. Won't suck forever.

 

[CASH]

I have been looking at overs for their games

 

[guaranteeed]

hitting

they are last in the league in BABIP

also middle of the road in ground balls so effectively they have been unlucky

if that turns around they will win some games but who knows when it does, like Tip says when they start stringing a few together I might ride them but otherwise you can't argue with fading for now especially since they aren't getting much out of 4/5 starters

 

[RetroVK]

If you bet them every game for their next 20 at close, you will make money... if you fade them you will lose money ( unless you are staggering ). They are already under valued almost daily now....the losing just keeps them that way for the forseeable.

 

[Gyno]

Encarcion .221 avg
Bautista .205 avg


Top hitter is batting .255

The team is a bunch of .230ish hitters.. No starter has a WHIP under 1.42

 

[guaranteeed]

Encarnation hits .190 of the time he hits the ball in play, league average is closer to 100 points higher

he's hitting more line drives than last year as well

Bautista

is even lower at 185. BABIP

regression to the mean will occur

 

[RetroVK]

Ya I agree with Teeed ... it depends on whether you believe Encarnacion sucks and he happens to be good at hard outs or whether you think he is getting unlucky ... and the same could be said for the team in general. Granted Dickey results are a regression to the mean in their own right but this isn't a team that one would expect to finish under .500 by years end based on the roster and they are dd games under .500 right now .. tough to want to fade that... ship has already sailed for the value at going against imo....but I have also lost some moulah backing the bums (wrongly it appears) as it is.

 

[Gyno]

How about the pitching?

Who do you feel comfortable with?

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Morrow, Buehrle, and Dickey all have better days ahead. They really never did fix the bullpen though. Almost .250 BAA isn't going to cut it. I wouldn't sweat the manager. Almost a 0% impact either way in my opinion.

 

[Gyno]

I think you guys are asking for a lot of players to turn it around all at once.. Its not like its a one or two guy problem, its pretty much the entire team.
I agree BJ's have talent, but they aren't there mentally. I'm still thinking about this and appreciate the input thus far.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

gyno, it's a contagious sport. They string a few hits together, get one gem, you blink, and they've won a few in a row. All the warts won't disappear, but they're not a .323 team. Soon enough they're going to start to get sexy .323 team lines.

 

[STEED]

Not so fast my friend.

 

[Gyno]

same gentleman..

How about fading the Phillies?

@ SF
@ AZ
vs CLE
vs CIN
@ MIA
@ WAS
@ BOS
vs BOS

Other than MIA thats a pretty tough stretch.. Thoughts?

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Why haven't you already been fading the Phillies?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

They're 4-12 SU vs fellow AL East opponents, 7-9 SU vs everyone else. With the ALE so competitive at the top this season there was always bound to be a divisional bunny, and Tampa has more backbone to my mind than the BJs (starting with the relative quality of managers, I'd say). So IMO, if you must fade them then fade 'em divisionally, ignore the rest.

 

[orangemonk]

Value with fading this team is gone. You should really re-evaluate your theories on long term trends IMO

 

[Gyno]

What do you mean?

 

[orangemonk]

Everyone went into the season thinking the Astros were going to be one of the worst teams in recent memory, so you did a month long fade. More times than not if you bet 30 times In a row on a team the public thinks is terrible you're gonna lose -- the lines are so heavy and adjusted for that. Everyone thought the jays were WS faves and then they had one of the worst starts in baseball and now 6 weeks later you want to start the fade. Lines have been adjusted, they aren't big faves every game anymore . Value of a long stretch fade is gone. Sure there are spots with both teams, but to look at their schedule and say "that's tough I'm gonna fade them" is way too simple minded for a gambling strategy

 

[Gyno]

Do you have 6 seasons of documented success fading teams for a predetermined amount of time?

I do, how about you?

 

[Gyno]

I haven't done the Blue Jays fade, was simply asking if it was a good idea considering the rough stretch ahead and their hitting and pitching woes..
Hindsight is always 20/20 and I realize these forums always have haters no matter how good or bad you do. I'm sure if I do bad on one of these fades you will be the first one there to remind me.

But nonetheless I really don't need to defend myself here, so I won't..