Is Closing Line Value (CLV) way overrated?

[BigTymePlayer25]

Good evening fellas,

Just a random question for the vets on the board. Is closing value really all that important?

I have lost a ton of games this year where I’ve had the best of the number... last week in 18 games I beat the Pinny close in 14 of them. Final record for the week was 6-12 though, good grief!

I’ve read for years the importance of getting the best of the number, beating the close etc but I’m starting to think that’s all a bunch of nonsense! Any thoughts?

 

[B.A.R.]

I feel like I've seen many people this year that are killing the number and just not seeing results. That's just an observation. Obviously over the long haul, it's in your best interest when betting old style (sides n totals). I'll let the champs chime in...that's just what I've noticed this ncaaf season.

 

[s--k]

Seems if you like the dog then wait; lines for favorites go up more often than they go down. Not every game naturally. I bet lots of dogs with lines that climb higher through the week.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

thanks BAR, appreciate the thoughts bud

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

thanks s--k, yes sir that's my general rule as well

 

[M.O.T]

Seems like this year may be some kind of anomaly. Outside of the bets I post here I also play in a pick league where every FBS game is offered and lines are set on Tuesday mornings. You have to select 10 games per week and I’ve generally used line movement as a primary indicator since the contest lines do not move after Tuesday, and in doing so have finished 1st, 12th, 2nd, and 2nd the last four years out of about 225 people. This year I’m around 35th.

It also seems like there’s a lot more movement on Saturday mornings this year, even going beyond the typical weather or injury related moves you would expect on gameday. Maybe there’s just an increase in attention linked to so many states approving sports betting laws leading to more pure volume? There’s always been people who wake up on Saturday morning, take their first look at the card, and place their bets. Are there just enough of those people to move lines now?

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

good point MOT, i know VARIANCE definitely swings week to week and even season to season... this one has been a weird one.... i was +11 units at one point, then lost it all in a couple weeks...then got back to +8 units, lost it all last week LOL it's craziness....makes me less motivated to put so much time into this "hobby"

 

[RetroVK]

I think the success of CLV has bore out over the years and you have certainly seen it with virtually all the successful people who have come through CTG. If you aren't getting line value, then you are probably betting 50-50 shots and laying juice to do it. CLV is king.

What is even worse ... if CLV at any point is not indicative or correlated to your EV, how will you ever know if you have an edge? The only reason I have kept on playing CFB over the years is that the results have been correlated with the lines moving toward my number by kickoff a vast majority of the time. That tells me I am doing it right FAR more than wins or losses. But if at any point that is no longer the case, I am not sure how I could continue to bet this shit.

My two cents.

BTW something else that is odd is that in prior years the opening line movement tended to continue with momentum or stop .. a lot of the time now a missed number from missing open reappears a lot more often. My friend and a fellow CTG member pointed it out to me a few weeks back.

Anyway, I gotta run but making your lines, seeing if the market moves towards those lines, is almost the only way, from a traditional point of view, that I can determine with confidence whether I have value or whether I don't.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

VK I greatly appreciate the response brother! Also, I appreciate all your threads over the years that have made me a better capper! Keep on keeping on

 

[TahoeLegend]

I've never seen the value in it. If it works for some people that's great and they should stick with it. I like to see it move my way and I feel better psychologically if I beat it, but I've watched my results every year and I just don't see the correlation with winning money.

You may have seen the study--I think it's on Pregame.com--where they took every college and pro game for a year and pretended a mythical bettor had beat the close in every game. I think the number he came in was slightly over 51%.

For one thing, the final line itself is a capricious movement of a number that was arbitrary to begin with because it's an attempt to place values on teams, but with the process corrupted by the desire to get the bettors to risk the most money possible, spread equally between two sides. That's not the most sound basis for rational analysis.

I've always viewed it as more of a rationalization. Probably because I see the exact same guys who say, "oh, I only lost because of a back door cover" say, "well I may have lost, but I beat the number."

If I see it working I'll change my tune in an instant.

 

[BigTymePlayer25]

great thoughts Tahoe thanks bud.... I tend to agree....I've been betting for 20 years and in all that time I've never been able to cash a losing ticket just because I had "3 points of closing line value" LOL appreciate your response sir

 

[lvmike32]

I remember reading Crimson K a few weeks ago saying he was 0 fer on games where he beat the CLV by over 10 points. Sounds like one of those years.