Saturday Week 12 College Football: Best Bets for November 13
Best Bets for Iowa Hawkeyes vs. USC Trojans
Given today’s playoff format, one could easily argue that Iowa vs. USC is the most exciting game of the week. The winner of this game will have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs while the loser will likely have no shot at making the playoffs.
This is also an interesting game because the teams have contrasting styles. Iowa is your prototypical hard-nosed defense-oriented team from the frigid midwest that is characterized by toughness. Conversely, USC is a flashy California team that is known above all for its high-powered offense.
A lot of folks, especially those of the old-school variety, love to bet on the defensive-minded team in this situation. But remember that betting isn’t formulaic – the defensive-minded team is not always going to cover the spread against the softer, offensive-first one. In this game, you can expect USC to exhibit the firepower that Iowa lacks. Whereas the Trojans will have no problem scoring, Iowa’s offense will prove too limited to keep pace. I will predicate my best bets for Saturday on this expectation.
The Hawkeyes are popular because they almost beat Oregon, but let’s avoid transitive property silliness. After all, they lost by one more point against unranked Iowa State. Matchup analysis invalidates transitive property logic. USC is different from Oregon in that USC’s scoring average in home games is over 14 points higher than Oregon’s scoring average in road games. The Trojans thus bring a much more prolific offense into this matchup while they retain Oregon’s ability to lock down Iowa’s offense.
USC just blew out a Northwestern team that, like Iowa, has a poor passer at quarterback and relies heavily on its ground game. Expect USC to sell out to stop Iowa’s rush attack because, with their leading receiver having all of 216 yards, the Hawkeyes are only dangerous on the ground. USC enters this game having held Northwestern to 17 points in a blowout loss and a more balanced Nebraska offense to 17 points.
Iowa this year has conceded 28 points to Rutgers because of Rutgers’ pass attack and 24 points to Penn State because of Penn State’s rush attack. USC is the only FBS team averaging over 500 yards per game because it is dangerous both through the air and on the ground. The Trojans will have no problem exceeding 30 points against an Iowa team whose offense will stall repeatedly, causing its defense to be fatigued.
Under its head coach, Iowa is winless out west in regular season play. Most recently, despite being a 6.5-point favorite, the Hawkeyes lost at UCLA last year. The Hawkeyes also suffer a twelve-game losing streak against ranked opponents.
For the above reasons, I love USC -6.5 at -120 with BetOnline.
Iowa’s Mark Gronowski Interceptions Thrown Over ½ (+100) at Bovada
Gronowski’s arm is the weak link of Iowa’s offense. Ideally, the Hawkeyes will want to be able to run the ball. But USC’s abilities to sell out to stop their ground game and to score so many points on offense will force Iowa’s offense to be more aggressive. Gronowski will therefore have to throw more passes. More pass attempts from him entails more interceptions. Hence, he’s thrown an interception in both of Iowa’s losses in which he attempted 20 or more passes. Three of his four interceptions this year came in a game in which he attempted at least 20 passes. Because Iowa won’t be able to hide his weakness as a passer, you can count on him to throw an interception.
Best Bets for Iowa Hawkeyes vs. USC Trojans
Given today’s playoff format, one could easily argue that Iowa vs. USC is the most exciting game of the week. The winner of this game will have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs while the loser will likely have no shot at making the playoffs.
This is also an interesting game because the teams have contrasting styles. Iowa is your prototypical hard-nosed defense-oriented team from the frigid midwest that is characterized by toughness. Conversely, USC is a flashy California team that is known above all for its high-powered offense.
A lot of folks, especially those of the old-school variety, love to bet on the defensive-minded team in this situation. But remember that betting isn’t formulaic – the defensive-minded team is not always going to cover the spread against the softer, offensive-first one. In this game, you can expect USC to exhibit the firepower that Iowa lacks. Whereas the Trojans will have no problem scoring, Iowa’s offense will prove too limited to keep pace. I will predicate my best bets for Saturday on this expectation.
The Hawkeyes are popular because they almost beat Oregon, but let’s avoid transitive property silliness. After all, they lost by one more point against unranked Iowa State. Matchup analysis invalidates transitive property logic. USC is different from Oregon in that USC’s scoring average in home games is over 14 points higher than Oregon’s scoring average in road games. The Trojans thus bring a much more prolific offense into this matchup while they retain Oregon’s ability to lock down Iowa’s offense.
USC just blew out a Northwestern team that, like Iowa, has a poor passer at quarterback and relies heavily on its ground game. Expect USC to sell out to stop Iowa’s rush attack because, with their leading receiver having all of 216 yards, the Hawkeyes are only dangerous on the ground. USC enters this game having held Northwestern to 17 points in a blowout loss and a more balanced Nebraska offense to 17 points.
Iowa this year has conceded 28 points to Rutgers because of Rutgers’ pass attack and 24 points to Penn State because of Penn State’s rush attack. USC is the only FBS team averaging over 500 yards per game because it is dangerous both through the air and on the ground. The Trojans will have no problem exceeding 30 points against an Iowa team whose offense will stall repeatedly, causing its defense to be fatigued.
Under its head coach, Iowa is winless out west in regular season play. Most recently, despite being a 6.5-point favorite, the Hawkeyes lost at UCLA last year. The Hawkeyes also suffer a twelve-game losing streak against ranked opponents.
For the above reasons, I love USC -6.5 at -120 with BetOnline.
Iowa’s Mark Gronowski Interceptions Thrown Over ½ (+100) at Bovada
Gronowski’s arm is the weak link of Iowa’s offense. Ideally, the Hawkeyes will want to be able to run the ball. But USC’s abilities to sell out to stop their ground game and to score so many points on offense will force Iowa’s offense to be more aggressive. Gronowski will therefore have to throw more passes. More pass attempts from him entails more interceptions. Hence, he’s thrown an interception in both of Iowa’s losses in which he attempted 20 or more passes. Three of his four interceptions this year came in a game in which he attempted at least 20 passes. Because Iowa won’t be able to hide his weakness as a passer, you can count on him to throw an interception.
