Iowa vs. Ohio State College Football Week 6 Betting Picks
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus
The Angle
If we look at each team's results thus far, it is easy enough to like Ohio State.
While the Buckeyes have overwhelmed all of their opponents by scoring a lot of points, Iowa's offense has lacked the same prolific quality while its defense has not been as effective as we're used to seeing from Iowa and as it will need to be against Ohio State.
Iowa's defensive performances thus far will give Ohio State backers a sense of comfort, but my argument is that it is absurd to expect Iowa's defense to continue underperforming, that Ohio
State's offense will receive a uniquely difficult test that will challenge it, and that Iowa's offense is significantly improved and worth respecting here.
Iowa's Defense
Let's explain what was expected of Iowa's defense this season and show that its performance thus far should not create concern about its ability on Saturday to reach its potential.
Heading into this season, the Hawkeyes were supposed to have an elite defense.
Last year, they ranked fifth in total defense. They were one of eight teams to allow fewer than 300 yards per game.
Heading into this season, they retained largely the same personnel. Eight starters returned. Seven of last season's top eight tacklers came back.
Throughout every position group — defensive line, linebacker, and secondary — we see this is a veteran cohort.
Every starter is a junior or older. They are well-proven guys who are used to playing with each other.
Iowa's Run Defense
Because Ohio State has been able to lean on its rush attack to dominate games, it is especially relevant to see how stout Iowa's run defense is.
In this respect, Iowa's defense has not been underachieving.
Whereas the Hawkeyes ranked 14th last year in run defense, they currently rank fifth in the category.
One key returning defensive lineman is Yahya Black, who has evolved into a 317-pound menace since he weighed about 50 pounds less in his first season in Iowa.
He is a valuable run-stuffer, as is the linebacker duo that could be in the NFL right now.
Jay Higgins is an All-American linebacker who, along with fellow tackling machine and preseason second-team All-Big Ten selection Nick Jackson, decided to play one more season at Iowa.
You might be reading this and feel unimpressed if you are thinking that Ohio State's defense is talented, too. But my point here is that Iowa is a three-touchdown underdog and that oddsmakers are off here largely because of the talent and ability on Iowa's defense.
Iowa's Underperforming Secondary
The problem for Iowa's defense so far — and I should really put "problem" in quotation marks because Iowa's defense has still been solid: it ranks 22nd in total defense this year — is its secondary.
While its front seven, as I described it, was expected to be solid and is indeed stout, its secondary was supposed to be even stronger.
Iowa's secondary returned four starters, including All-American Sebastian Castro.
To show how deep this group is, Jermari Harris was, based on PFF grades, Iowa's third-best corner last season, but he still received a good grade.
Harris has the physical tools to be a good cornerback, which is what he's developed into under Iowa's coaching staff, with his fluid motions, instincts, and general athletic qualities.
While Iowa did lose a key defensive back in the offseason, this group is deep enough to have played very close to its season average when that defensive back was absent last year, as apparent in its games against Illinois, Nebraska, and eventual national champion Michigan.
With all the returning talent, one could easily have expected this year's Hawkeyes secondary to be stronger than last year's.
The key point here is that Iowa's secondary is not underperforming because it turns out that it is not so physically able or because it has somehow declined in a physical, more permanent sense.
Instead, the Hawkeyes have merely lacked discipline and are committing mental errors.
Examples include multiple big receptions that Troy was able to accomplish against Iowa because the latter's defensive backs were slow to react, flat-footed, and insufficiently communicative.
These are all fixable errors. I really like that Iowa is entering this game off a bye week because a bye week offers the perfect opportunity for an underperforming but extremely capable group to recharge, refocus, settle down, and concentrate on putting together the type of performance for four quarters — we've seen Iowa dominate merely in stretches so far — that we know it can accomplish and that it will need to accomplish against the mighty Buckeyes.
Looking at Ohio State's Quarterback
The key argument for an Ohio State backer will have to be that Iowa's offense is so bad that it won't be able to sustain drives and that, consequently, its defense will get tired, worn down, and eventually unable to slow down the Buckeyes.
The best argument will point to the flaws of Iowa's quarterback, but before I address this argument, let's talk about Ohio State's quarterback.
Part of my point here is that criticizing Iowa's quarterback would be an ironic move on the part of Buckeyes backers.
This is because Will Howard, currently Ohio State's quarterback, represents a significant downgrade relative to last year's quarterback, Kyle McCord.
Howard's numbers this season might look attractive, especially since Ohio State's offense has solely faced soft tests — MAC schools, defensively vulnerable Marshall, and defensively low-ranking Power Four competition — but they do not change what he is.
As evident in his career-long stats and in the consensus of different scouting reports, he lacks the arm strength to throw an effective deep ball, but his short throws are also often inaccurate.
Since his Kansas State days, he has always relied on his running ability, although he isn't particularly efficient as a runner and Iowa's top-level linebackers will contain him.
Criticize Iowa's quarterback all you want, but Ohio State's turnover-prone one will be eaten alive by Iowa's secondary.
Iowa's Improved Offense
In Tim Lester, the Hawkeyes finally have a competent offensive coordinator, and he is improving the offense to a significant extent.
My point here will be that the Hawkeyes' offense will not struggle to sustain drives and will keep their defense from developing fatigue by spending too much time on the field.
From last season to this season, Iowa has jumped 62 spots in total offense.
Consider their last game, against Minnesota, in which they only came alive in the second half.
Whereas they scored ten points at home against the Golden Gophers last season, they scored 31 in Minnesota this season.
The unique degree of returning talent on their offensive line allows this unit to have excellent chemistry, which is fostering prosperity under the offense's more competent tutelage.
With an excellent running back room led by Kaleb Johnson, the Hawkeyes amassed 272 rushing yards against the Golden Gophers — Johnson accounted for 206 of them.
Retaining the key virtue of the Iowa offense of old, they bullied a Minnesota group that had limited North Carolina's starting running back to 1.5 YPC below his season average and that just held Michigan's excellent rush attack to a respectable 3.6 YPC.
Last year, the Hawkeyes mustered 0.4 YPC against Minnesota. So, clearly, the improvement is outstanding.
They also benefit from having a competent quarterback in Michigan transfer Cade McNamara.
He has been fairly efficient and seems to have solved his turnover issue, as he didn't throw an interception in either of his last two games.
Marshall scored 14 first-half points against Ohio State's defense and Michigan State could have exceeded that total if it had not kept turning the ball over deep in Buckeyes' territory. So, Ohio State's defense is certainly far from invincible.
Takeaway
Iowa's outstanding defense, well-rounded as it is, will pose a unique challenge to Ohio State's offense, which will prove handicapped by insufficient quarterback play, which is ironically what folks annually expect from Iowa.
The Hawkeyes, this year, have a significantly improved offense that can supersede the performances of Marshall and Michigan State against Ohio State's pregnable defense.
Expect a grind-fest in which Iowa's top-level run defense and high-caliber secondary prove their worth, while they use their rush-oriented but still balanced offensive attack to sustain drives, drain clock, and keep Iowa's defense well-rested to perform as well as it is capable of doing for four quarters.
With an extra week to prepare under the leadership of its competent coordinator, Iowa's new offense will be at its best, with its players mirroring the developmental advancement of its already uniquely effective defense.
Best Bet: Iowa +24 at -110 with Bovada
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus
The Angle
If we look at each team's results thus far, it is easy enough to like Ohio State.
While the Buckeyes have overwhelmed all of their opponents by scoring a lot of points, Iowa's offense has lacked the same prolific quality while its defense has not been as effective as we're used to seeing from Iowa and as it will need to be against Ohio State.
Iowa's defensive performances thus far will give Ohio State backers a sense of comfort, but my argument is that it is absurd to expect Iowa's defense to continue underperforming, that Ohio
State's offense will receive a uniquely difficult test that will challenge it, and that Iowa's offense is significantly improved and worth respecting here.
Iowa's Defense
Let's explain what was expected of Iowa's defense this season and show that its performance thus far should not create concern about its ability on Saturday to reach its potential.
Heading into this season, the Hawkeyes were supposed to have an elite defense.
Last year, they ranked fifth in total defense. They were one of eight teams to allow fewer than 300 yards per game.
Heading into this season, they retained largely the same personnel. Eight starters returned. Seven of last season's top eight tacklers came back.
Throughout every position group — defensive line, linebacker, and secondary — we see this is a veteran cohort.
Every starter is a junior or older. They are well-proven guys who are used to playing with each other.
Iowa's Run Defense
Because Ohio State has been able to lean on its rush attack to dominate games, it is especially relevant to see how stout Iowa's run defense is.
In this respect, Iowa's defense has not been underachieving.
Whereas the Hawkeyes ranked 14th last year in run defense, they currently rank fifth in the category.
One key returning defensive lineman is Yahya Black, who has evolved into a 317-pound menace since he weighed about 50 pounds less in his first season in Iowa.
He is a valuable run-stuffer, as is the linebacker duo that could be in the NFL right now.
Jay Higgins is an All-American linebacker who, along with fellow tackling machine and preseason second-team All-Big Ten selection Nick Jackson, decided to play one more season at Iowa.
You might be reading this and feel unimpressed if you are thinking that Ohio State's defense is talented, too. But my point here is that Iowa is a three-touchdown underdog and that oddsmakers are off here largely because of the talent and ability on Iowa's defense.
Iowa's Underperforming Secondary
The problem for Iowa's defense so far — and I should really put "problem" in quotation marks because Iowa's defense has still been solid: it ranks 22nd in total defense this year — is its secondary.
While its front seven, as I described it, was expected to be solid and is indeed stout, its secondary was supposed to be even stronger.
Iowa's secondary returned four starters, including All-American Sebastian Castro.
To show how deep this group is, Jermari Harris was, based on PFF grades, Iowa's third-best corner last season, but he still received a good grade.
Harris has the physical tools to be a good cornerback, which is what he's developed into under Iowa's coaching staff, with his fluid motions, instincts, and general athletic qualities.
While Iowa did lose a key defensive back in the offseason, this group is deep enough to have played very close to its season average when that defensive back was absent last year, as apparent in its games against Illinois, Nebraska, and eventual national champion Michigan.
With all the returning talent, one could easily have expected this year's Hawkeyes secondary to be stronger than last year's.
The key point here is that Iowa's secondary is not underperforming because it turns out that it is not so physically able or because it has somehow declined in a physical, more permanent sense.
Instead, the Hawkeyes have merely lacked discipline and are committing mental errors.
Examples include multiple big receptions that Troy was able to accomplish against Iowa because the latter's defensive backs were slow to react, flat-footed, and insufficiently communicative.
These are all fixable errors. I really like that Iowa is entering this game off a bye week because a bye week offers the perfect opportunity for an underperforming but extremely capable group to recharge, refocus, settle down, and concentrate on putting together the type of performance for four quarters — we've seen Iowa dominate merely in stretches so far — that we know it can accomplish and that it will need to accomplish against the mighty Buckeyes.
Looking at Ohio State's Quarterback
The key argument for an Ohio State backer will have to be that Iowa's offense is so bad that it won't be able to sustain drives and that, consequently, its defense will get tired, worn down, and eventually unable to slow down the Buckeyes.
The best argument will point to the flaws of Iowa's quarterback, but before I address this argument, let's talk about Ohio State's quarterback.
Part of my point here is that criticizing Iowa's quarterback would be an ironic move on the part of Buckeyes backers.
This is because Will Howard, currently Ohio State's quarterback, represents a significant downgrade relative to last year's quarterback, Kyle McCord.
Howard's numbers this season might look attractive, especially since Ohio State's offense has solely faced soft tests — MAC schools, defensively vulnerable Marshall, and defensively low-ranking Power Four competition — but they do not change what he is.
As evident in his career-long stats and in the consensus of different scouting reports, he lacks the arm strength to throw an effective deep ball, but his short throws are also often inaccurate.
Since his Kansas State days, he has always relied on his running ability, although he isn't particularly efficient as a runner and Iowa's top-level linebackers will contain him.
Criticize Iowa's quarterback all you want, but Ohio State's turnover-prone one will be eaten alive by Iowa's secondary.
Iowa's Improved Offense
In Tim Lester, the Hawkeyes finally have a competent offensive coordinator, and he is improving the offense to a significant extent.
My point here will be that the Hawkeyes' offense will not struggle to sustain drives and will keep their defense from developing fatigue by spending too much time on the field.
From last season to this season, Iowa has jumped 62 spots in total offense.
Consider their last game, against Minnesota, in which they only came alive in the second half.
Whereas they scored ten points at home against the Golden Gophers last season, they scored 31 in Minnesota this season.
The unique degree of returning talent on their offensive line allows this unit to have excellent chemistry, which is fostering prosperity under the offense's more competent tutelage.
With an excellent running back room led by Kaleb Johnson, the Hawkeyes amassed 272 rushing yards against the Golden Gophers — Johnson accounted for 206 of them.
Retaining the key virtue of the Iowa offense of old, they bullied a Minnesota group that had limited North Carolina's starting running back to 1.5 YPC below his season average and that just held Michigan's excellent rush attack to a respectable 3.6 YPC.
Last year, the Hawkeyes mustered 0.4 YPC against Minnesota. So, clearly, the improvement is outstanding.
They also benefit from having a competent quarterback in Michigan transfer Cade McNamara.
He has been fairly efficient and seems to have solved his turnover issue, as he didn't throw an interception in either of his last two games.
Marshall scored 14 first-half points against Ohio State's defense and Michigan State could have exceeded that total if it had not kept turning the ball over deep in Buckeyes' territory. So, Ohio State's defense is certainly far from invincible.
Takeaway
Iowa's outstanding defense, well-rounded as it is, will pose a unique challenge to Ohio State's offense, which will prove handicapped by insufficient quarterback play, which is ironically what folks annually expect from Iowa.
The Hawkeyes, this year, have a significantly improved offense that can supersede the performances of Marshall and Michigan State against Ohio State's pregnable defense.
Expect a grind-fest in which Iowa's top-level run defense and high-caliber secondary prove their worth, while they use their rush-oriented but still balanced offensive attack to sustain drives, drain clock, and keep Iowa's defense well-rested to perform as well as it is capable of doing for four quarters.
With an extra week to prepare under the leadership of its competent coordinator, Iowa's new offense will be at its best, with its players mirroring the developmental advancement of its already uniquely effective defense.
Best Bet: Iowa +24 at -110 with Bovada
