Expect Low-Scoring Thriller Between Oklahoma State and Iowa State
No. 11 Oklahoma State (7-2) travels to No. 15 Iowa State (6-3) with dashed playoff dreams and frustration after losing to rival Oklahoma. They play Saturday at noon ET. The Pokes are favored by 7. The game total is 62.
The main source of Oklahoma State's offensive production is its passing attack. However, quarterback Mason Rudolph has been struggling: in the past three weeks his Pokes scored a season-low 13 points against Texas, he threw a season-low 216 yards against an inexperienced West Virginia secondary and completed barely half of his passes against the softest of Oklahoma secondaries.
The key for opposing defenses has been to drop more defenders into coverage in order to challenge Rudolph's accuracy. Rudolph's issues with accuracy had been masked by the talent of his wide receivers. But Iowa State can continue to foreground his issues with their transition to a 3-3-5 or 3-2-6 defense. Lockdown cornerback Brian Peavy leads the Cyclones' secondary with 6 passes defensed.
Like TCU, against whom the Pokes were behind 34-17 after 3 quarters before TCU's coverage softened, and against Texas, coverage schemes that feature a lot of defensive backs are often vulnerable to the deep pass. Rudolph's weakness as a passer is his accuracy with deep passes. Iowa State won't put Rudolph under much pressure, which Rudolph responds well to, but, like TCU and Texas, they will make Rudolph struggle to establish the short and intermediate passing game.
Oklahoma State's increased reliance on its rushing game has made it less of a big-play team. In their past 3 games, they average 5.7 yards per play, despite their shootout with the soft Sooners, which would place them outside the top 40.
The Cowboys' defense looks horrible if you only look at the scoreboard and if you account for their struggles last week against perhaps the most prolific offense. But before last week they held West Virginia to two offensive touchdowns, one coming in garbage time, they held Texas to 10 points, and Texas Tech to 3 offensive touchdowns.
As a rush defense, their problems have come against the speedy backs who are able to find isolation in open space and use their athleticism to break away from the defense. So the Pokes' least favorite back has been TCU's Darius Anderson. But they have contained the more physical runners, such as Texas Tech's Justin Stockton and West Virginia's Justin Crawford. Iowa State's David Montgomery falls into the latter category.
Iowa State's offense has become much more conservative under quarterback Kyle Kempt. In the past three games, the Cyclones average 9.2 yards per pass, which would rank them dead last. This conservatism plays into the hands of an Oklahoma State defense who has proven most vulnerable against a big-play aerial attack that is supported by a balanced offense, such as that of Oklahoma.
The Cyclones' conservative offense will allow Oklahoma State's defense to keep the game in front of them, where they can utilize their physicality to contain a Cyclones team that has hit 4 straight 'unders.'
Free safety Tre Flowers is the Pokes' leader in both tackles and passes defensed.
The Verdict
Oklahoma State's offense has struggled to retain character against a defensive scheme that is laden with defensive backs and plays tighter coverage. The Pokes' defense is underrated and matches up optimally against a more conservative and physical Iowa State offense. The Cyclones' defense will lead a low-scoring upset bid against a Cowboys squad that is likely demoralized after an emotional rivalry loss that dashed its playoff hopes. This game presents a nice opportunity for a correlated 'under' and underdog parlay.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +7 And 'Under' 62
No. 11 Oklahoma State (7-2) travels to No. 15 Iowa State (6-3) with dashed playoff dreams and frustration after losing to rival Oklahoma. They play Saturday at noon ET. The Pokes are favored by 7. The game total is 62.
The main source of Oklahoma State's offensive production is its passing attack. However, quarterback Mason Rudolph has been struggling: in the past three weeks his Pokes scored a season-low 13 points against Texas, he threw a season-low 216 yards against an inexperienced West Virginia secondary and completed barely half of his passes against the softest of Oklahoma secondaries.
The key for opposing defenses has been to drop more defenders into coverage in order to challenge Rudolph's accuracy. Rudolph's issues with accuracy had been masked by the talent of his wide receivers. But Iowa State can continue to foreground his issues with their transition to a 3-3-5 or 3-2-6 defense. Lockdown cornerback Brian Peavy leads the Cyclones' secondary with 6 passes defensed.
Like TCU, against whom the Pokes were behind 34-17 after 3 quarters before TCU's coverage softened, and against Texas, coverage schemes that feature a lot of defensive backs are often vulnerable to the deep pass. Rudolph's weakness as a passer is his accuracy with deep passes. Iowa State won't put Rudolph under much pressure, which Rudolph responds well to, but, like TCU and Texas, they will make Rudolph struggle to establish the short and intermediate passing game.
Oklahoma State's increased reliance on its rushing game has made it less of a big-play team. In their past 3 games, they average 5.7 yards per play, despite their shootout with the soft Sooners, which would place them outside the top 40.
The Cowboys' defense looks horrible if you only look at the scoreboard and if you account for their struggles last week against perhaps the most prolific offense. But before last week they held West Virginia to two offensive touchdowns, one coming in garbage time, they held Texas to 10 points, and Texas Tech to 3 offensive touchdowns.
As a rush defense, their problems have come against the speedy backs who are able to find isolation in open space and use their athleticism to break away from the defense. So the Pokes' least favorite back has been TCU's Darius Anderson. But they have contained the more physical runners, such as Texas Tech's Justin Stockton and West Virginia's Justin Crawford. Iowa State's David Montgomery falls into the latter category.
Iowa State's offense has become much more conservative under quarterback Kyle Kempt. In the past three games, the Cyclones average 9.2 yards per pass, which would rank them dead last. This conservatism plays into the hands of an Oklahoma State defense who has proven most vulnerable against a big-play aerial attack that is supported by a balanced offense, such as that of Oklahoma.
The Cyclones' conservative offense will allow Oklahoma State's defense to keep the game in front of them, where they can utilize their physicality to contain a Cyclones team that has hit 4 straight 'unders.'
Free safety Tre Flowers is the Pokes' leader in both tackles and passes defensed.
The Verdict
Oklahoma State's offense has struggled to retain character against a defensive scheme that is laden with defensive backs and plays tighter coverage. The Pokes' defense is underrated and matches up optimally against a more conservative and physical Iowa State offense. The Cyclones' defense will lead a low-scoring upset bid against a Cowboys squad that is likely demoralized after an emotional rivalry loss that dashed its playoff hopes. This game presents a nice opportunity for a correlated 'under' and underdog parlay.
NCAAF Pick: Iowa State +7 And 'Under' 62
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