Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
This is my 2nd year participating in the CTG NBA forum. I spent roughly 4 years over at the other site before this. This is by far the best NBA forum/discussion on the web. And I'm not just saying that to plug CTG because I don't get paid by them, and I am in no way affiliated with the site. I won't name names, but there's so many, good informative users on here, each providing different categories of analysis/info. Last season was my most profitable season betting NBA to date. Some of that stems from being smarter with my money management, and part of that is definitely from information on this site. I encourage lurkers to join and post, even if you just want to post plays to track your record on a database. All information is appreciated, and the more plays posted, the better it is for us to give us a larger consensus of who the "public" likes.
A little bit about me. I used run a very small-time book a few years ago, which allowed me to experience many aspects of the gambling world. The most knowledge I got from that was probably the ability to name second half lines before they get released. This gives me the ability to sniff out traps and spot value. Last year I finished monitoring my second half bets with a rate of around 65-70%. I'll likely post more 2nd half lines than full-game bets come mid-season when we have a better feel for the teams and the lines. My quick philosophy to betting NBA full games is divided into three parts: Early in the season it's important to spot value in the lines before the books catch on. When the books finally catch on, the middle of the season becomes tedious. The majority of us will hang around .500 or below in this stage, but it's important to not give up and tire out. This middle of the season is when I like to play 2H lines. The end of the season gets easier especially close to playoffs. All of the sudden, the young, rich NBA egos cool down and teams get serious as they look to establish their place in the playoffs. More of those conspicuous public plays start cashing at a higher rate. While I likely won't spend as much time in here as last season, I hope to contribute as much as I can to the forum. Good luck to all, and hopefully everyone has a profitable year!
Opening night is pretty much what I expected. The champs open up as a DD favorite at home, Houston opens as a low road fav and gets bet up. I definitely didn't expect GSW to be the fav especially that high, but it's a game I'll stay away from considering all the madness that occurred last year in their playoff series. I lean on Utah and the Lakers.
My Play: Spurs 1H -7.5 (1 Unit)
My book won't offer lines til tomorrow, and I'll post the number then. It should be -7 or -8. Portland is just too young as a whole to compete this season. They'll probably be a scrappy team and challenge large spreads throughout the season, but that's about it. The center duo of Pryzbilla & Lafrentz is just no match for Duncan. I look at this roster, and I see two HUGE weaknesses for Portland: defense and rebounding. The Spurs run the prototypical style to exploit both of those weaknesses. Adding a little motivation to the Spurs is the fact that they lost their opening home game last season against James and the Cavs. James ran off 35 points in the win. I don't expect this game to be close at all...Spurs lead the first half by 15+, and roll to a 20+ point win.
A little bit about me. I used run a very small-time book a few years ago, which allowed me to experience many aspects of the gambling world. The most knowledge I got from that was probably the ability to name second half lines before they get released. This gives me the ability to sniff out traps and spot value. Last year I finished monitoring my second half bets with a rate of around 65-70%. I'll likely post more 2nd half lines than full-game bets come mid-season when we have a better feel for the teams and the lines. My quick philosophy to betting NBA full games is divided into three parts: Early in the season it's important to spot value in the lines before the books catch on. When the books finally catch on, the middle of the season becomes tedious. The majority of us will hang around .500 or below in this stage, but it's important to not give up and tire out. This middle of the season is when I like to play 2H lines. The end of the season gets easier especially close to playoffs. All of the sudden, the young, rich NBA egos cool down and teams get serious as they look to establish their place in the playoffs. More of those conspicuous public plays start cashing at a higher rate. While I likely won't spend as much time in here as last season, I hope to contribute as much as I can to the forum. Good luck to all, and hopefully everyone has a profitable year!
Opening night is pretty much what I expected. The champs open up as a DD favorite at home, Houston opens as a low road fav and gets bet up. I definitely didn't expect GSW to be the fav especially that high, but it's a game I'll stay away from considering all the madness that occurred last year in their playoff series. I lean on Utah and the Lakers.
My Play: Spurs 1H -7.5 (1 Unit)
My book won't offer lines til tomorrow, and I'll post the number then. It should be -7 or -8. Portland is just too young as a whole to compete this season. They'll probably be a scrappy team and challenge large spreads throughout the season, but that's about it. The center duo of Pryzbilla & Lafrentz is just no match for Duncan. I look at this roster, and I see two HUGE weaknesses for Portland: defense and rebounding. The Spurs run the prototypical style to exploit both of those weaknesses. Adding a little motivation to the Spurs is the fact that they lost their opening home game last season against James and the Cavs. James ran off 35 points in the win. I don't expect this game to be close at all...Spurs lead the first half by 15+, and roll to a 20+ point win.
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