Intro To NBA Betting

[O-State]

Hey fellas. NBA is my second favorite sport behind CFB but I have never bet it before. In general, I've always viewed NBA and MLB as a lot more difficult than say college football but I've heard ppl say they've made profits so I'm ready to give it a try.

College fooball every game is vital and the parity isn't their as much so you can find great spots. NBA/MLB it's a different team every night as everything is about the long haul percentages, so I see this more as gambling.

---What are the differences, the most vital things necessary to properly cap NBA games to give you an edge. Is trends more relevant? Is emotion and situations more important, say why Clippers can beat Lakers on a given night even though they wouldn't if it was a game 7? Do matchups have less of an impact?

---Also, I've heard someone say preseason NBA is a great spot. How is this? Preseason? The games mean even less then they currently are and NBA games already mean less with the number of them and this is what I deem difficult.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

From my POV, the NBA is all about situational spots. Favs win SU at home to a heavy degree in this sport. This is most certainly not an any-team-can-win-at-any-venue-on-even-given-night sport (unless the refs decide to take matters into their own hands, in which case almost any result can be "engineered', but frankly that doesn't really happen to often).

Trends and situational aspects are simply the same thing (unless you're looking at trends as related to purely gambling lines, like how a team has done when a fav between 3.5 & 7.5 points). Gambling line trends I don't personally put a lot of stock in, but that's my personal bias. I look for trends/situations grounded in physical reality, like teams coming off lengthy road trips and playing a 2nd game off that road trip against a tough opponent (bet against them ATS), or a team off a very high scoring game that went in overtime, that then has to travel to play B2B the next night (a classic Under spot).

I have a number of stickied threads in this forum that spell out various notable situational spots for result trends, they ought to give you some idea about things.

 

[CharlieBX]

Hello O-State, and good luck with your NBA betting. Hehe, I've found that football is probably me worst sport overall LOL (well besides hockey but I don't know shit about it). My main thing is college basketball, then I'd say MLB and then NBA.

In regards to some of your questions, I have to agree that the NBA preseason can be a very good spot...mainly because of the matchups that can be created. Some teams straight up rest some starters, meaning their bench comes into play a lot quicker. If one team has a shitty bench with not much young players in camp, then their 2nd halves of games can go bad (check out the New Jersey Nets once they start using their 3rd and 4th stringers...meanwhile take a look at the Indiana Pacers deep bench). So if you research it enough, you can find out a bit of the rotations the coaches are planning to use and whatnot.

Emotion can play a factor, but imo emotion/homecourt is even bigger in college basketball than it is in the NBA. Situations are important, especially when looking at how long a team has been on the road, or maybe even how many days they're been off.

Just a few random thoughts. Good luck bro!

 

[CharlieBX]

From my POV, the NBA is all about situational spots. Favs win SU at home to a heavy degree in this sport. This is most certainly not an any-team-can-win-at-any-venue-on-even-given-night sport (unless the refs decide to take matters into their own hands, in which case almost any result can be "engineered', but frankly that doesn't really happen to often).

trends and situational aspects are simply the same thing (unless you're looking at trends as related to purely gambling lines (like how a team has done when a fav between 3.5 & 7.5 points). gambling trends i don't personally put a lot of stock in, but that's my personal bias. I look for trends/situations grounded in physical reality, like teams coming off lengthy road trips and playing a 2nd game off that road trip against a tough opponent (bet against them ATS), or a team off a very high scoring game that went in overtime, that then has to travel to play B2B the next night (a classic Under spot).

I have a number of stickied threads in this forum that spell out various notable situational spots for result trends, they ought to give you some idea about things.

Nice! Dude...you should seriously write like a manual for handicapping. Hehe, instead of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, call it the Handicapper's Guide to the Galaxy.

oh oh...also, you NEVER want Lamar Odom on the floor at the end of a game in which you are giving points cause that fucker will flat out fuck you.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Thanks, Charlie, but we're pretty much in line with what we've said. All about situations.

If a game doesnt have some kind of notable situation relating to it's side or total, I'm not interested in placing a bet on it.

 

[O-State]

Ok it sounds more like technical analysis than fundamental analysis. I'm more of a Buffet value investor.

--Doesn't vegas adjust the lines accordinly say when a team comes off a big road trip and plays a tough team. Books know how the trends have gone.

---I guess this is more of a feel thing based on situations.

From a matchup standpoint between two teams, it sounds like you could deduct a little but this is not a one game scenario----you have to gauge each team's relative state of emotion and other situational factors.

-----Talk to me about your guys relative success on NBA----you find it a winning proposition compared to other sports?

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Doesn't vegas adjust the lines accordinly say when a team comes off a big road trip and plays a tough team. Books know how the trends have gone.

Tough team doesn't have to mean a star team in the public domain - the lines will get adjusted only so far considering the teams involved. Name teams lines will never faithfully represent any given spot because they're name teams who'll get bet on anyway.

The emotions predominating in these athletes is who gets to fuck the sexiest hanger on after the game (or, who gets to fuck her first and avoids sloppy seconds).

 

[O-State]

The emotions predominating in these athletes is who gets to fuck the sexiest hanger on after the game (or, who gets to fuck her first, and avoids sloppy seconds).

:36_11_6:

So the lesson is find NBA teams that are bonded with character guys and consistently put the effort in right. Bet on the team that "wants" it more, as these opportunities exist in an 82 game season.

-Spurs come to mind as a team that probably wouldn't lose to a big dog.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

These guys have games off, sometimes even big name match-ups (the Spurs wallop the Suns by 30 points and after the game you go, aren't the Suns meant to get up for the hated Spurs? answer: Suns took the game off). Successfully figuring out when teams are taking the night off can lead to some of the easiest gambling wins of your life.

 

[Inspekdah]

Fade small road chalk.. either by taking a home dog in need of a win badly or just talking the small dog on a short line.

Really read into the lines... what are they trying to make you bet? I think the NBA is very predictable to insiders... which Vegas I'm sure has their hands in... whose taking the night off? Whose battling an undisclosed injury? Etc.

Look ahead at the schedule a week or so rather than night by night. You will say, man this team needs this tonight... but then realize... wait... this Friday they get revenge on the road against a crap team, which just upset them a few weeks back and celebrated on their home court.

Example: Hawks celebrating in Denver a few years back after a lucky win. Den at ATL was easy $$

 

[brewers7]

From my POV, the NBA is all about situational spots.

BetCrimes1984 nailed it with his first sentence...

NBA is the most situational sport, by far, based on the schedule...And this creates a plethora of situational opportunities to recognize and sometimes, feast on...Some situational trends will conflict with each other during certain match-ups, so you use the stronger trend, or the stronger motivational factor, or pass...

The NBA is the easiest sport to handicap...There are several things to look for, but if I would have to pick one thing to look for and put it at the top of the list, the answer is simple:

You look for the team that has the most motivation to win on any given night...

And a big thing that any seasoned handicapper will notice in the NBA is patterns or streaks...They pop up all over the place during the season...And after long ones finish, they generally immediately reverse themselves...

Some trends are very strong one season, and only somewhat strong the next...If a perennially strong trend (like the 4 of 5 trend) starts out slow the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season, be ready for it to get smoking hot for the next 6 to 8 weeks...

There are so many things to look for, I don't have time to list them all, but doing your homework is pretty much always my #1 recommendation...If you are experienced enough, your gut is often all you need on most nights, but I have a database in MS-Excel that I glance at, and I also have paper charts that I update daily, and these daily charts are my Bible...Checking the boxscores daily is important, too, to determine the pace of games for totals (how many shots and FTs were taken) and also to look for extremes in one teams' FG% as those will reverse to the mean or more the next time out...

I have been handicapping the NBA since 1983 (not counting 2 years I took off capping sports my last 2 years of college)...

I have 2 samples from my NBA database, which contains 17 years worth of data going back to 1991-92...

Database_Team_sample

Database_RegSeason_sample

The database comes in handy for daily match-ups and trends...There are some automatic plays that have been established for certain matchups over the past couple of years and one off the top of my head is the Detroit/Cleveland under...As personnel changes year-to-year, so will the results of these match-ups...

As far as the database goes, I really haven't even realized all the power of that info yet...I look at the trends as a guide, but there is some stuff there that I will sit down and really delve into one day...But what works for me still are my paper charts and here is a sample of half of the 2006-07 season in paper chart form:

Paper charts sample

I like it in this form because you have an 8-week snap-shot of the NBA season on one piece of paper for sides, and then one for totals...And you see unmistakable patterns develop when you have charts like this...And I have been doing these charts since the 1991-92 season...

Anyway, the NBA is very beatable...Trends are strictly a guide and never an end-all for a selection...Looking at and more importantly, understanding the motivational and situational spots is one of the biggest keys, which BetCrimes1984 pretty much already said...

Hopefully everyone will have a profitable 2008-09 NBA season...<!-- / message -->
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[O-State]

Good shit brewer

Saw your post in talking shop concerning NBA betting strategy.

Now I need to reread it and get organzined. Looks like some capping time will be involved in this endeavor.:shake:

 

[handy]

Life is dandy when you follow an NBA capper named Handy!!!

 

[tuck321]

I look for situations where specific results are convenient for both sides.
Will have a posted play for Tuesday.

 

[army.of.1]

O-State...
There is a position that could really help put another mark in the W column in the NBA that hasn't been metioned in the thread (not that I seen) that I like to use.

1.) Not necessarily thee key player of a team, but any key player of a team being injured can really stir up a mess and cause a team to get killed a few times while the person is out. I like using this method.
Some examples from last year...
-Cleveland without Lebron, failed to cover like 6 straight spreads if I remember correctly.
-San Antonio, when they were missing either Ginobili or Parker, they missed a few beats.
-and that goes for most teams and all depending on the situation.


agree with Betcrimes and brewers7 too