quick thoughts on the games
I've said before Croatia arguably has the best midfield in the tournament with Modric/Rakitic, I don't think they are going to get overwhelmed here, they can keep possession and slow the pace down. My guess is 1-1 or 1-2
Spain start these tournaments slowly and the Dutch 5-3-2 will I think really hinder their lack of a real striking option up front, they have no real width outside the fullbacks and if they push those forward that plays right in to the hands of the dutch wingbacks on the counter. I have a sneaky feeling the Dutch may win this, but think these adds are too good with the draw a win as well
I like the Ivory Coast a lot this year, they have been Africa's hope forever and finally got a good group draw when people think it's too late, but Yaya is coming off a season where he was the best midfielder in the world, Zokora and Tiote are very strong sitting in front of the back 4. Drogba isn't the powerful force he used to be but he has focused on his link up play more and with Gervinho/Kalou (plus Bony off the bench) bombing up the field he can draw the defense in and put them through. They have a huge advantage on set plays against Japan as well, if they can force a lot of corners the skill in the box should force a goal.
England is a bad matchup for Italy, especially in Manhaus, the field is going to be a joke, which hurts Italy who rely more on slow build up possession, and with the humidity England have the advantage with the subs they can bring on. By the 60th/70th minute they could throw on any of Sterling/Barkley/Wilshere and just tell them to run at what will be a very tired Italian back 4, also tough to ignore Italy's poor starts at these tournaments time after time.
Swiss is a play against Ecuador, barring seeing a dramatic change I will likely be against Ecuador at some point in all 3 games. This is a team that only qualified because they play at a ridiculous elevation. In qualifying they had 7 wins and 1 draw at home, and only managed. In their 8 away matches they lost 5 times, drew 3.
I like Argentina to score in bunches, and this Bosnian squad doesn't worry me, the Argies will be susceptable to attacks on the counter, their back 4 isn't strong and it isn't quick outside Zabaleta. But the Bosnian's are going to stack the midfield and I think Dzeko is going to be up on an island on his own. Which goes away from what they did in qualifying when they played an attacking 4-1-3-2 in favor of the 4-2-3-1
They are playing their 2nd best player in Pjanic out of position, he's not a 10, he's a deep lying play maker who likes to see the field in front of him and I think he will struggle more with CDM's shadowing him now, Mascherano should have him in his pocket all game.
Portugal/Germany is going to be a tight game, I think neither side will want to lose, and because of Ronaldo the Germans will have to mitigate how much Lahm gets forward, and he is the source of so much of their wing play since the other midfield attackers like to mostly cut inside
USA/Ghana is the opposite, I think it's tight but I think both these teams go in knowing they have to win to have a chance of qualifying, and I like the US to get a win. If this was 5 years ago a midfield of Essien/Muntari/KPB would strike fear in to a US team, but this isn't 5 years ago and I think the Americans will control the game in midfield. They might lack some of the technical skill Ghana have but their athleticism in the pressing game will be a huge advantage. The one potential issue is that Ghana's real only attacking strength is on the counter, they have no one who can play the killer ball to open up a deep lying back 4, the US moving to basically a midfield diamond could leave them open on the wide areas if they press too high. But I think JK will keep at least 2 of the CMs back at all times to keep it safe and I think they can score 1st, and sit back and hopefully pick Ghana off on their own counter
