Interesting Trend with Some teeth behind it

[smh212]

I started to edit my power ratings last night, and when I got to Phx they really took some extra time, because they have a decent record, but they are a hard to team to put your finger on. Going through the game notes of Phx games I have watched, one not stuck out over and over: The Suns tend to play to the pace of their competition, especially when playing bad teams. So I tested the theory out, and the results were interesting:

First my parameters: A "good" team has a winning % of .550 or better. A "bad" has a win % of.380 or less.

Pace plays a role in my total plays, and my theory was pretty simple: Bad teams play bad defense. Bad defense leads to points.

All games: 61-41-5 to the UNDER
In fact all aspects point towards the UNDER. Good teams as a favorite vs bad are 40-57-5 UNDER. Every which way you look at, the league as a whole is producing unders when we have a good vs bad match ups, which makes he Suns numbers a nice outlier to consider when capping:

Suns when playing "bad teams:

All games: 11-3-1 over
At home: 5-1-1 over
Away: 6-2 Over
as favorite 8-0-1 over
as dog 3-3 over
as home fav 5-0-1 over

Obviously, not the largest sample in the world, but it serves as a balance sheet of sorts as it gives you a picture at a certain point in time.

:searching:

 

[Schrute]

Great work

 

[smo1a]

Nice find. I'll be tracking this.

 

[smo1a]

Betcrimes Jr.... You shall be

 

[B.A.R.]

Very nice work.

 

[KowboyKarl]

I will be following this system closely... :shake:

 

[tuck321]

Suns at home tend to go over as a fav in the first half a very high percentage of the time

 

[smh212]

Suns at home tend to go over as a fav in the first half a very high percentage of the time

Maybe a shot to "double dip" when the Suns are at home vs bad teams.

smo1a - There is only one BC, and I'm not on that dude's planet :cheers:

 

[divol]

17 out of 22 first halves in Phoenix resulted in an Over.