Input requested, esp from B12 folks...

[horses]

Oklahoma over 10 wins (-105); here's the schedule:

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Chattanooga</TD><TD align=middle><SCRIPT>document.write(formatTime('%I:%M%p', 1220137200))</SCRIPT>7:00pm</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Sep 6</TD><TD align=middle>Cincinnati</TD><TD align=middle><SCRIPT>document.write(formatTime('%I:%M%p', 1220729400))</SCRIPT>3:30pm</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Sep 13</TD><TD align=middle>@Washington</TD><TD align=middle><SCRIPT>document.write(formatTime('%I:%M%p', 1221349500))</SCRIPT>7:45pm</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Sep 27</TD><TD align=middle>TCU</TD><TD align=middle>TBA</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Oct 4</TD><TD align=middle>@Baylor</TD><TD align=middle>TBA</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Oct 11</TD><TD align=middle>Texas</TD><TD align=middle><SCRIPT>document.write(formatTime('%I:%M%p', 1223740800))</SCRIPT>12:00pm</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Oct 18</TD><TD align=middle>Kansas</TD><TD align=middle>TBA</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Oct 25</TD><TD align=middle>@Kansas St.</TD><TD align=middle>TBA</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Nov 1</TD><TD align=middle>Nebraska</TD><TD align=middle>TBA</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Nov 8</TD><TD align=middle>@Texas A&M</TD><TD align=middle>TBA</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Nov 22</TD><TD align=middle>Texas Tech</TD><TD align=middle>TBA</TD></TR><TR class=bg2 vAlign=center align=right height=17><TD align=middle>Nov 29</TD><TD align=middle>@Oklahoma St.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Texas, KU, Tech and Okie Lite are the losable games in my opinion; Aggie is in a transition year and KSU has too many JC transfers to beat OU, even at home. Going into the year, I have the Sooners favored in every game.

Thoughts on why this may not be a good bet?

 

[ynnhoj316]

they should be able to handle everyone, but that's why the games are played.

OU owns UT until shown otherwise.
KU won't be solid like last year.
Tech can't win @ Norman until shown otherwise.
OSU seems to have the magic in Stillwater vs. OU

I expect a scare from an OOC game possibly at Wash or home against TCU.

Seems like there are better values out there for a total wins bet. :cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

They should get to atleast 10 wins , but you really have to sweat injuries when you try to go over a total wins number this high.

 

[Dmoney416]

Over or nothing seems like the best way to go here.

Their away games are fantastic for the over. All the conf. roadies are against teams projected to be in the middle or bottom of the conference.

You can also afford a fluke home loss to Texas/TTU/Kansas/etc.

I do like this over, but I agree with VK about the injury bug on high totals.

I would wait until late August to lock this in if you believe that the juice will stay low. Obviously, pull the trigger now if you expect the juice to rise.

I'm not a big 12 guy, but I think I have a solid feel for Oklahoma since I like to look at all of Cincy's opponents.

 

[bull]

horses- with a possible 10-2 a push, i don't see 3 losers here.
the more difficult games are in norman or dallas.
Gl with whatever you decide.

 

[horses]

Seems like there are better values out there for a total wins bet. :cheers:

Ynnhoj316, Would love to hear what they are.

but you really have to sweat injuries when you try to go over a total wins number this high.

Yes, it's my chief concern, esp Bradford. Thanks for those comments VK and Money.

Agree with Bull and DMoney about the way the schedule sets up; like Baylor on the road and Tech at home for this bet especially. I just can't imagine them losing 3 games, but it's clearly possible, esp if Bradford goes down for any significant time.


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[SHSUHorn]

This is a definite over play. OU is probably going to play in the MNC game.

 

[sirwinzalot]

On the over at Bookmaker. Definitely is a good play. I was a true degenerate and bet every Over/Under season win total futures on every team. I have a lot more unders than overs. OU is one I bet the over and I feel very good about it. Their OL is so solid and so experienced, think they are one of a handful of teams that can win it all this year.

 

[RJ Esq]

You're either going to push or win.

 

[ynnhoj316]

Well, 10-1 would probably put OU in the Big 12 title game (you would push your total wins bet).

11-0 would definitely put them in the Big 12 title game (you would win your total wins bet, but you're still laying -105).

If you are wanting to back OU, why not take OU +180 to win the Big 12?

Just a thought..:tiphat:

 

[horses]

Appreciate the feedback 'Horn and RJ, great getting some validation from two of the most knowledgeable B12 guys I know. :shake:

Sirwin, good luck with all those futures; that would wear me out but I'm glad to see you on the OU over.

YNN, your permutations only allow for 11 games; you realize it IS a 12-game schedule? I thought about taking the Sooners at +odds to win the B12, but one never knows what type of shape they'll be in when the B12 championship rolls around and Missouri is looking for some payback and they are likely the 2nd best team in the B12 (Texas, TTech). Like I said, thought about, but am going with the Over 10 (-105).

Hit this at the greek for their limit as well as tOSU (+100) to win the B10 (actually to get the B10 BCS bid).

That will likely be the extent of my college futures; taking two blue-chip stocks/teams to perform to expectations. :shake:

 

[dmr76]

Oklahoma over 10 wins (-105); here's the schedule:

<table width="100%" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Chattanooga</td><td align="middle"><script>document.write(formatTime('%I:%M%p', 1220137200))</script>7:00pm</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Sep 6</td><td align="middle">Cincinnati</td><td align="middle"><script>document.write(formatTime('%I:%M%p', 1220729400))</script>3:30pm</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Sep 13</td><td align="middle">@Washington</td><td align="middle"><script>document.write(formatTime('%I:%M%p', 1221349500))</script>7:45pm</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Sep 27</td><td align="middle">TCU</td><td align="middle">TBA</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Oct 4</td><td align="middle">@Baylor</td><td align="middle">TBA</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Oct 11</td><td align="middle">Texas</td><td align="middle"><script>document.write(formatTime('%I:%M%p', 1223740800))</script>12:00pm</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Oct 18</td><td align="middle">Kansas</td><td align="middle">TBA</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Oct 25</td><td align="middle">@Kansas St.</td><td align="middle">TBA</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Nov 1</td><td align="middle">Nebraska</td><td align="middle">TBA</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Nov 8</td><td align="middle">@Texas A&M</td><td align="middle">TBA</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Nov 22</td><td align="middle">Texas Tech</td><td align="middle">TBA</td></tr><tr class="bg2" valign="center" align="right" height="17"><td align="middle">Nov 29</td><td align="middle">@Oklahoma St.</td></tr></tbody></table>


Texas, KU, Tech and Okie Lite are the losable games in my opinion; Aggie is in a transition year and KSU has too many JC transfers to beat OU, even at home. Going into the year, I have the Sooners favored in every game.

Thoughts on why this may not be a good bet?

I am already on this one. I just don't see OU finishing w/ less than 11 wins. Even if they lose to Texas (a huge if), they will have revenge on their mind against TT and nobody else has the horses to run with them. It would have to be a perfect storm of them screwing up against Texas, losing to Mizzou and then somehow managing to blow the game against TT. I just don't see it.