Input please. Smartest way to hedge?

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wadegarrett

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ok guys, I have a future bet from sportsinteraction.com
Here is the story, last february I came home after a few beers and winning a few bucks on hoops, i am not a big bettor. I had a odd number in my account so i took a flyer on a future wager and it was a parlay of two futures(Sportsinteraction allows this) Risked $16.60 on the phillies to win the world series with the eagles to win the superbowl- payout is over $6400.
Since the Birds are in the NFC Championship, what would you guys suggest I do? I just want some input. I am sure its a personal opinion, some might say let it ride, others may see other ways to guarantee a good payout. Thanks. I am still unsure what hedge I should make and for how much!
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
I'd put 1400-1900 on AZ plus the points. That means you can win the bet while the Eagles still advance.
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yup i would put roughly 1500 on zona plus the points as well. hope to win and not cover and then hope you get the ravens in the super bowl instead of the steelers/chargers
 
Also, I am sure that sportsinteraction is reputable right?
I wont be run around trying to get a payout will i?
 
vegaskyle said:
yup i would put roughly 1500 on zona plus the points as well. hope to win and not cover and then hope you get the ravens in the super bowl instead of the steelers/chargers
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whats really tha chances a dog of 4 points or lower covers but doesnt win? 80% maybe? i cant see it happenin like that, id put some on zona ML
 
tru said:
whats really tha chances a dog of 4 points or lower covers but doesnt win? 80% maybe? i cant see it happenin like that, id put some on zona ML
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well not that good obviously but it gives the chance of winning both bets is all. or siding it even if it lands 4.

personally i am not a big fan of hedging anyway since you can only hedge your valuable bets.

But if i were to hedge i would prefer the chance to win the bet and still have the ticket be live.
 
im jus goin off tha top of my head im sure that 80% is even higher. theres jus too much a of a windo to not go after more money. and at a line like 3 or 4 why not be on tha ml to maximuze profits and have no vig?
 
i am hoping that the arizona line goes up and they end up getting 4.5-5 points.
 
Spread play on AZ, you're getting even money on the +3 as it is.

Enjoy your winnings, this is a really nice bet for you right now, even if the Eagles cover the point spread this weekend.
 
Wait until the Philly/Zona game is played and then bet the AFC for half the amount. They will likely be favored, but you want to bet to guarantee a profit of half what you could win. Remember, you have a money line bet on Philly if they get past Zona. If the AFC is favored bet the ML on them as well for 3 dimes. Covering the spread means nothing here.
IF THE AFC IS THE DOG, THEN BET THEM WITH THE POINTS. YOU COULD WIN 9,000.

There is no reason to bet the Zona Game. You have 16.00 at risk. If Philly wins you have just won 3,000 regardless, as long as you bet it on the AFC.

To suggest ANY other play on this Zona/Philly game is stupid.

THERE IS NO HEDGE BET TO MAKE ON PHILLY/ZONA.

IT'S SHOCKING HOW MANY BAD SUGGESTIONS ARE POSTED???? (SHAKING MY HEAD)
 
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betcrimes1984 said:
i'd put 1400-1900 on az plus the points. That means you can win the bet while the eagles still advance.
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if philly wins by 4, he loses the 1400-1900 and cant bet it on the afc. He then is down to a potential profit of 4300.00? IF he wants to make half whats there, then he has to bet another 2150.00 to guarantee a split.


No reason to bet zona big. Lay a 100.

Also since the philly game is played first, he doesnt even have a clue who philly will be playing if they win.
 
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Is there something we need to be aware of about Wade's eyesight that he needed it bigger and in blue to get your opinion?
 
and if Arizona wins the game he is down money Gman. $16 but still down money. If he bets on Arizona and then bets on the AFC team, he's guaranteeing himself a few grand regardless of what happens.
 
There is no reason to bet the Zona Game. You have 16.00 at risk. If Philly wins you have just won 3,000 regardless, as long as you bet it on the AFC.
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If he didnt care to make money at this stage, then he'd not have made the thread. He'd have let the NFC Championship game play out and if the Eagles won, then he'd have made the thread.

Because he wants to guarantee making some sort of money, then there is every reason in the world to lay some kind of bet on AZ.
 
vegaskyle said:
yup i would put roughly 1500 on zona plus the points as well. hope to win and not cover and then hope you get the ravens in the super bowl instead of the steelers/chargers
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VK - Could you really walk up to the betting window and lay that 1500 on a team that means nothing? C'mon. Youre reducing the 3000-9000 payout of the next game to 1500? If Philly loses or wins by 3, then he made a good bet. If Philly wins by 4 or more, which they probably will, then the bet was a waste of 1500 +juice. These games usully dont end close. Especillay this season where there was no true dominate team. He cant bet on Philly in the SB. The only money he can bet is on the AFC regardless of the line.
 
G, I have to say I totally disagree with your opinion that it is stupid to bet Zona. If he bets 500 on Zona at +3 and loses and then bets the same on the afc and loses he wins 5200.

If Zona covers next week he wins 4 something. How is that stupid for a guy who bets 25-50 a game? He is guaranteeing himself 8+ units with the possibility of 100.

That's stupid?
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
If he didnt care to make money at this stage, then he'd not have made the thread. He'd have let the NFC Championship game play out and if the Eagles won, then he'd have made the thread.

Because he wants to guarantee making some sort of money, then there is every reason in the world to lay some kind of bet on AZ.
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Granted OK let say he should bet 100.00. Thats all.
Why bring down the potential of 3000-9000 by laying 1500-1900? The Eagles are the better team and DO have a predictable defense. Zona played one decent game on defense all year yesterday, but it was full of gifts from Carolina. Otherwise they would have lost.
 
And if Arizona wins, then hes left at least 1000 on the table. Taking my suggested minimum means he can come out 4 digits up at the end of the SB no matter what sequence of results occur.

I like the Eagles as well, but he clearly wants this bet to pay some sort of decent return at the end of the day. 100 on a winning AZ team wouldn't deliver his desire.
 
ljc_267 said:
G, I have to say I totally disagree with your opinion that it is stupid to bet Zona. If he bets 500 on Zona at +3 and loses and then bets the same on the afc and loses he wins 5200.

If Zona covers next week he wins 4 something. How is that stupid for a guy who bets 25-50 a game? He is guaranteeing himself 8+ units with the possibility of 100.

That's stupid?
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Its stupid because he can guarantee himself 3-9 thousand on a 16.00 bet if Philly wins over Zona. Otherwise the guy is laying money he needs to bet the other side on the AFC. You made the point that he's a 25-50 dollar bettor. Odds are realistic thet he may not be "financially comfortable" wiring in 1500 this week and another 2500 next week. I say save all the money for the big payout. Throw a 100 on the game for Zona.

In Bold above you said" If he bets 500 on Zona at +3 and loses and then bets the same on the afc and loses he wins 5200." Thats my point, he has to bet 2600 on the AFC of the remaining 5200 potential. betting only small portion on the AFC is wrong and he gets a poor payout betting 500 on the AFC?
 
G-man not sure why he wouldnt bet AZ if hes gonna win money regardless.

Bet AZ for 1500

Eagles win, bet AFC for 3000. You cant lose on that.
 
You might be right he doesnt feel comfortable betting that kind of money so he doesnt have to bet 1500. Make it 100 for all I care, but there is no way he comes out a loser doing it that way
 
And if hes a typical gamble and the Eagles lose he will feel like he just lost 6400, not 16 dollars. That is, if he's the typical gambler
 
Fondybadger said:
and if Arizona wins the game he is down money Gman. $16 but still down money. If he bets on Arizona and then bets on the AFC team, he's guaranteeing himself a few grand regardless of what happens.
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True, but, Im not for laying 1400 plus down at all. Regardless of the way Philly wins, he still needs to bet 3000 on the AFC ML or the spread if the AFC is the dog.

I just believe that Philly could have a great game. Betting on Zona who won the divison by default of bad teams in it, is a bet that doesnt warrant much action. 1400 to 1900 is like throwing money away. He's risking 16.00. Lay small money down on Z.
 
G-Man said:
True, but, Im not for laying 1400 plus down at all. Regardless of the way Philly wins, he still needs to bet 3000 on the AFC ML or the spread if the AFC is the dog.

I just believe that Philly could have a great game. Betting on Zona who won the divison by default of bad teams in it, is a bet that doesnt warrant much action. 1400 to 1900 is like throwing money away. He's risking 16.00. Lay small money down on Z.
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This is a tough call to say that zona got lucky to get in because of bad teams when Philly was pretty luck to get in.
 
The Steelers game was like a Sci-Fi movie. SD had the craziest things happen. Punt off the helmet? Blown TD on a turnover from a tipped pass? Ive never seen so many games get ruined by so many turnovers and freak things.
 
tru said:
im jus goin off tha top of my head im sure that 80% is even higher. theres jus too much a of a windo to not go after more money. and at a line like 3 or 4 why not be on tha ml to maximuze profits and have no vig?
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there have been 20 ccg over the last 10 years and 17 times the team that won su also covered the spread.
 
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