Initial Thoughts On Next Weekend's Action

[sirwinzalot]

Baltimore/Indy

Liking Indy here, as I thought the line should have been 3.5 Thinking about putting 1.5 units on the points and the ML. I think Indy finds a way to win this game.

I think the total is about right, and I like the side too much to fool around with the total

Seattle/Chicago

I lean Seattle, but not sure I really want to put money on a crap Hawks team.

The play in this game is the over. I can't believe it is at 37 right now. A horrible Seattle defense, which I think Chicago will expose with Sexy Rexy making some deep throws and big plays. I also think Sexy Rexy throws a pick or two.

I also think this total is based on the Bears defense of last year. Bears defense is not as good, especially now with Tommie Harris out. This game should go over. Don't have a score projection yet, but total seems too low

New England/San Diego

Thought this line should have been Chargers -6, initially was liking the Chargers but the more I thought about it, liking the Pats +5.

You have a young San Diego team vs. a veteran playoff team in New England with the master game planner in Belichick. I also don't like the fact the Chargers haven't been in many close games, which I think this game will be close. Further, I think this game comes down to Rivers being able to beat the Patriots.

So in the end think taking the points with the coaching edge, playoff experience, and about even teams is the way to go.........gotta take the Pats and the points.

I think the Under is worth a look here as I expect a close and lower scoring game than people think. I think both teams will try and get the run game going and rely on strong defenses that they have.

Philadelphia/New Orleans

I like the Eagles getting points here. I will take the points with the better defense facing a young team that relies on offense, that had a week off. There could be a little rust there, and think the Eagles will be able to get pressure on Brees and limit the big plays. The Saints torched the Cowboys, but the Cowboys couldn't get any pressure. Jim Johnson will find a way to get in Brees' face.

 

[Austintx_05]

Can't argue on any of your points....

I am sure NO will be a popular play, but I see them as a 1 and done team. A very young team with not a lot of playoff experience. Tough to lay 5 with that. Plus I think NO left it all in Texas Stadium

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I'm liking AFC totals first

Over in Balty - Ravens will get theirs, Colts wont be whumped.
Under in SD - Martyball in the playoffs, against the Pats? lol

 

[BigRaktor]

4gm ML parlay

Colts
Bears
Saints
Chargers

I hoping for a Colts/Chargers AFC Championship. Good points on all the games.

Colts/Ravens
Don't like that Total at all. I think this game could very well wind up being 20-10 either way. Saturday, LJ was supposed to just destroy the softest run D in the league. However, once again, Herm Edwards proved why he was the WORST coach in the NFL (IMO). 13 carries for LJ...8 in the first half of a 9-0 (should have been 9-3) game. Without the ability to establish any kind of game at all, the chiefs were done in this one. The Colts on the other hand did put it in the hands of their Field General Manning (yes I'm a homer). 38 pass plays, and 38 RB carries. In order to beat the Ravens, the Colts are going to have to duplicate this game.

What I like about this matchup is that the Colts have faced McNair before. They know what he does and how to handle him. Since the new Divisions were outlined, the Colts are 6-2 vs the Titans (not counting this year w/ VY - future is cloudy there), and 3-1 vs Baltimore (loss was in 2001). This shows me that the Colts can handle McNair and the great Baltimore D. The Colts also know their key to winning this game is to take their time and manage this game. I know I'm against the grain, but I think the Colts win this game just like they did over KC. 20-10 ish so Colts and Under are my leans.

Seahawks/Bears
Da Bears...no real insight...just IMO.

Eagles/Saints
Still on the fence...might throw eagles into the mix so that I take this game out of the equation.

Patriots/Chargers
Initial gut read was the Chargers, but I'll have to put some time into this one. My pops is a Charger fan, and they are my 2nd fav team so its tough.

 

[abcs]

Can't argue on any of your points....

I am sure NO will be a popular play, but I see them as a 1 and done team. A very young team with not a lot of playoff experience. Tough to lay 5 with that. Plus I think NO left it all in Texas Stadium

What do you mean left it all on in Texas Stadium? The saints were 3 - 0 against that division. First you dont like garcia now you are picking him to lead the team to a win..

 

[Austintx_05]

I don't have to like him to bet on him. Garcia's not the QB you want to lay 7 points in a division game. And like I expected he didn't cover the 7 points.

Garcia getting more than a fg is the role I would like him in. He has the ability to keep his team in the game.

My Texas Stadium comment is that was such an emotional game for that team, they might have put everything they had in the season into that 1 game. Note following the Dallas game, NO went 1-2 SU with both of their losses being at home to Carolina & Washington. An older reference would be Fresno St last year after the USC game. They put everything they had into that game, and the rest of the season was a collpase. Its a small factor that I value, because with a young team like the Saints they could be one and done here.

 

[Austintx_05]

Under in SD - Martyball in the playoffs, against the Pats?

been saying that for awhile :shake:

 

[BeASaint]

I don't have to like him to bet on him. Garcia's not the QB you want to lay 7 points in a division game. And like I expected he didn't cover the 7 points.

Garcia getting more than a fg is the role I would like him in. He has the ability to keep his team in the game.

My Texas Stadium comment is that was such an emotional game for that team, they might have put everything they had in the season into that 1 game. Note following the Dallas game, NO went 1-2 SU with both of their losses being at home to Carolina & Washington. An older reference would be Fresno St last year after the USC game. They put everything they had into that game, and the rest of the season was a collpase. Its a small factor that I value, because with a young team like the Saints they could be one and done here.

Trying my best not to be a homer here......

Undoubtedly the Washington game was a letdown game in its purest sense, but if you're going to dock them against Washington, then you have to also give them credit for completely dominating a second NFC east playoff team on the road (Giants) one week later.

Brees and Bush came out after the first snap of the second series against Carolina and McAllister was not even activated, so I don't think you can really count that in your 1-2 ATS record you quoted.

I would say that they played 3 meaningful games in December and smoked two playoff teams on the road in two of them with a "letdown" game in between. Also, this is a team that actually knows a thing or two about playing in high emotion games (Atlanta, Dallas, NYG). It's my opinion that this team has actually learned a lot over the course of the season, with the Washington loss just the latest lesson about maintaining your intensity from week-to-week.

In addition, I have to disagree with the assessment that this is a young team. They certainly have youth in areas, particularly at receiver and O-line, but I'm not sure you can qualify Brees, McAllister, Horn, Fujita, Grant and Will Smith in the "young" category. They have all been in the league for at least 3 seasons. McAllister, Smith and Grant don't have playoff experience, but Brees, Horn, Fujita, Simoneau, Shanle, McKenzie, Hollis Thomas and, just as importantly, Sean Payton do.

For what its worth, I think Saints by 5 is probably just a little too much considering Philly's on a roll and the Saints had the week off. It may turn out to be different, though once we fully analyze what the Sheppard injury means to the Philly defense. If Jim Johnson doesn't have the bodies to play man coverage on the outside, then he likely can't blitz as much as he would like. That definitely plays to NO's favor, IMO.

 

[abcs]

Austin just looks at scores a lot of the times, like the falcons eagles game to end the year. He didnt notice that garcia and westbrook played 1 series. That NO game to end the year they looked ext sharp before they pulled their starters. I think they will be ready to go havin 2 weeks off vs a team who is playin on a short week

 

[Ale10]

Philadelphia/New Orleans

I like the Eagles getting points here. I will take the points with the better defense facing a young team that relies on offense, that had a week off. There could be a little rust there, and think the Eagles will be able to get pressure on Brees and limit the big plays. The Saints torched the Cowboys, but the Cowboys couldn't get any pressure. Jim Johnson will find a way to get in Brees' face.

Are you kidding? Saints have some youngsters (Reggie, Colston), but they have experience too. This is a very good mix. And there are so much playmakers on this team. They will be all over on the Eagles defense, especially with Sheppard out. If they can handle Westbrook, they will win huge. If they can't, it's possibly a last possession game.

 

[abcs]

Thats what i was tryin to figure out, the saints arent young by any means, they might not have that much playoff experience but its not like this team starts 20 rookies.

 

[Austintx_05]

never said they had 20 rookies

 

[Austintx_05]

also your statement that i just look at the scores is false.

 

[abcs]

also your statement that i just look at the scores is false.

Ok :shake: But to say they are 1 - 2 su is meaningless since the team didnt even play their starters the last game. I just dont see how you can say things like that, but then praise the giants who were like 2 - 6 su goin into the playoffs

Good luck though :shake:

 

[Austintx_05]

when did I praise the Giants?

I simply stated that @ almost 3:1 odds the Giants had a shot to win the game and really good shot to cover getting 7 points.

The game came down to a last second FG. Sounds like I was dead on.