Indy 500

captjohn67

captjohn67

Pretty much a regular
4-3 (+1.395) was too busy for Barber last week and when it was clear that the weatherman was going to be right I just passed. Glad I did. Not much to learn from that one IMO, but I did love seeing Gabby stand up for himself after the race and tell the Frenchman to "get the hell outta here". He would be a sizeable dog if it were to have come to blows, but you never know.

Way early, but they started testing yesterday so might as well get it started. While it's hard to deny Kanaan is past his prime, he could probably drive ovals blowing a .18 and particularly the brickyard. Would love to see him pick up another before he finds the rocking chair. Rookie orientation/ refresher today could mean black marks on the wall.

https://twitter.com/x/status/991097721984446464
 
Practice 1

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Qualifying breakdown

https://racer.com/2018/05/11/power-bests-wickens-for-indy-gp-pole/

Waiting on numbers. With the way Jordan King tested in March I considered throwing a penny on him at +11500. Except for St Pete, he hasn't had the race pace to be a front runner but it'll be interesting to see how much they shave that number after the p5 performance. Odd to see Dixon struggling so much in qualifying this year. He has been getting solid results, but sooner or later it's going to bite him when you're hanging around the back markers. There are certainly going to be some off strategy efforts due to some of the big dogs poor performances yesterday.
 
I always forget they run this one today instead of Sunday. Race is at 230 cdt so they need to get busy but for the most part no one cares about these races and they've been particularly slow this year on posting. Weatherman says 30% on isolated tstorms btw.
 
Well King is down to +1750. It would be nice to have a few pennies on him beforehand. The Power +150 is absurd. I would entertain the thought of the field -275 against him if it was offered like it is sometimes.I hate it when you can't play matchups early as there are usually no good numbers left. Probably should pass but I'm going to be drinking a few so I manufactured one par....Newgarden -150 Rossi and Power -185 Pagenaud ( 1 to win 1.5675) Why the hell not, right? As always I hope they keep it clean and GL with whatever action you have today.
 
4-6 (+.295)

Helio +1350 (.10) and TK +2250 (.05) .....was hoping Munoz would be his standard 40-1 but at 2250 I'm passing. I want to see some track time before I play some longshots, if I do at all. They'll be on track today but 50% on rain so not sure how productive today will be. I hope they keep it clean for the next two weeks.

History

http://racing-reference.info/trackdet/048/O/0
 
Was pleasantly surprised to see Helio shake the rust off like he did this past Sunday and he podiums here 41.2% and this is the best number on him in years. The TK play may have some sentimental angle to it, but when the checkers fly and he is on the lead lap, his avg is 5.2. I do have concerns whether and AJ built car can last for 500 miles tho.
 
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Not a horrible forecast, but it's time to get busy. TK turning 12 laps yesterday is how you get behind the eight ball.
 
Practice 3 , May 16th....Sato surfaces near the top of the charts, TK dies on track due to throttle sensor failure ( remember when I spoke of concerns of Foyt cars?) Dale Coyne cars are not sandbagging they're lost in the woods, Carpenter has been steady, gabby with a nice effort. Dixon and Marco think passing will be much tougher and TK still fastest no tow speed.

05-16-18%20Indy%20500%20day%202%20practice.pdf
 
Bourdais is on his 26th lap today and is sitting in 25th. Pippa Mann ran better than him yesterday. Don't get me wrong, there's still time for him to find his groove, but last years wreck is in his head ( I can completely understand that btw) But unless something changes, he's fade material for sure in matchups
 
Carpenter, Marco and TK seem to be the most consistent so far but everyone is still searching. Hildebrand decided to take a stroll down memory lane and find the turn 4 wall but it wasn't too bad. Weather is 60% today and unsettled for the weekend so not sure how this is all going to turn out. Its fast Friday and they get the extra boost so if the weather cooperates should be a fun day. Forgot to mention Karam. Most don't like him, and that's understandable because of his past actions, but he's running well and has speed. I feel sure he'll wad it up before the checkered flag waves, but I certainly think he's the best darkhorse play. I can't remember if he was +6600 or +11500 but that's taking a shave for sure.
 
Davison with a hard hit. Banged up knee but just read where his car is first in line for tech inspection so they had a busy night

 
Dixon had a migraine yesterday so he had very little track time. Chevy has a clear advantage with NTS so expect them to dominate in qualifying. Going to be a Penske party up front along with Ed and Bourdais if this hold true. No rain dances today allowed.
 
So today they'll firm up the grid. Obviously the big news from yesterday is Hinch not making the field. My gut tells me he'll buy a ride but we'll see. Danica in the fast 9 was impressive and all the Carpenters cars are fast. Andretti cars not so much. One thing I have failed to mention is the problem of Honda engines imploding last year has been fixed. So they are reliable, just reliably slow. Let's see what shakes out today and go from there.
 
Of the 248 drivers that have made at least 5 Indy 500 starts, Danica ranks 8th in best avg finish ( 8.714) Haters gonna hate but she's good at the brickyard, period.
 
Helio has a top 4 car easy, they just swung for the fences after Ed ran his blistering number. He'll be fine. Rossi had an undetermined issue and put himself in a bad spot. Sato with a nice improvement. Today is the day I put a ton of emphasis on and weather is 50/50 so we'll just have to see. No numbers up yet for me.
 
Monday, only track time they have left is carb day. Wickens hit the wall, something broke, and then he hammered the wall. In the old days his feet would have more than likely been broken. These tubs are truly amazing.

05-21-18%20Indy%20500%20practice%20results.pdf
 
Helio +110 Rossi

Newgarden -105 Rossi....surprised by both these numbers. Makes me think they're going to have Rossi still almost the fav whenever they post the win odds again. According to the drivers it's not going to be as easy to pass as the year Rossi kept charging to the front after bad pit stops with fueling issues. Have the added benefit of the back markers taking him out as well. This is a long race and the big dogs find they're way to the front but Rossi has a lot of landmines to avoid

Power -130 Pagenaud....Power won Pocono and Texas last year and Poconothe year before. He's come a long way on ovals and Pagenaud doesn't have that resume yet and has not adapted well to the new aero kit

TK +100 RHR ....fading Andretti cars and TK has been near the top of the charts almost every session
 
Danica +100 Pigot....Pigot has run two ovals in his career. Both of them were here with ho hum results. Maybe this is the year he's figured it out but I say prove it and I would have made Danica the -130 even with her rust.
 
Kimball should never be -350 against anyone but Daly is petrified here. Let me get some bourbon in me and I'll play it just out of principle
 
Still want to see carb day and win odds. Was hoping for a Karam matchup but hopefully they'll post a few more.
 
Chilton +120 Daly....I'll never tell you any wager I place is a winner and to tail me, but mother Mary who's setting these numbers?
 
Only 20% chance of rain on Sunday so it's looking good. It could be 92 degrees which would tie the highest ever. Keep in mind the avg race day temp is 67.3 so will be tough on man and machine for 500 miles. After the final session today they have the pit stop challenge. Penske has won 10 of the past 12. Think about losing 2 seconds a pit stop (guaranteed minimum 6 stops) and then picturing 12 seconds on track for perspective. Makes it tough for the small teams/longshots as they typically can't match the pit stop times of the big teams/regulars. No rain today
 
Good luck Capt. , love your insights on Indy racing. Hope we see another high odds winner come Sunday come in like last year.
 
madshooter said:
Good luck Capt. , love your insights on Indy racing. Hope we see another high odds winner come Sunday come in like last year.
Click to expand...

Thank you sir and good luck to you as well. Think it's going to be tougher this year for a longshot to come home but you never know with funny yellows and just attrition. Want to see this final session before/if I throw some pennies around on the longshots. Specifically have my eye on kimball of all people but we'll see.
 
Hopefully Kanaan got his bad luck out of the way cutting a tire on carb day. Same for Danica with the ECU issues. Pagenaud, Marco, Ed and Bourdais all have good cars and can win this....I just don't trust them here. I did throw .02 on Pigot at +6000, but I don't recommend it. Kept bouncing some of the other matchups around in my head but decided to pass. I think a Chevy wins and wish that prop was available. I also think Power can win. Oh, and I think Danica will finish inside 15.5 but I'm not laying -145. I can't think of anything else to add. As always I wish everyone luck and enjoy the greatest spectacle. Smoking a Boston butt if you want to stop by. I hope they keep it clean. Cheers
 
Thanks Bull and good luck to you as well and have a good one. Played Ricciardo fastest lap +300 for .30. Only car that had his pace was Verstappen and with him buried in the field I think it will be hard for him to duplicate the flyer that Ricciardo should post. Here we go :cheers3:
 
5Dimes not a good place for this venue. Head to head only with limited number of pairings an twenty cent juice.
I made 7 bets and went 3-4 despite losing 3 cars in crashes,
Race is better with a little action on it, so I really can’t complain.bull
 
bull said:
5Dimes not a good place for this venue. Head to head only with limited number of pairings an twenty cent juice.
I made 7 bets and went 3-4 despite losing 3 cars in crashes,
Race is better with a little action on it, so I really can’t complain.bull
Click to expand...

Only other outlet I have is a local and they're posted really late so I don't even hardly look at them anymore. Twenty cents is hard to beat but that's the racket for this sport. Maybe other outlets have ten cents but I honestly don't know (very few bet indycars) My apologies to anyone who listened to me, I'd have done better throwing darts blindfolded. It happens, but that was a rough one.

The purist seemed to have liked the race and I get it. Qualifying matters, track position matters, and the slingshot passing of the past few years did indeed go away as the drivers were saying it would. But in the same breath, when the leader can't pass lapped traffic on a speedway, then I think there's a problem. I have concerns for Pocono and Texas. Indy is still Indy for diehards like me but one of the more ho hum ones in recent memory. I've never been a huge Power fan but he certainly cemented his legacy and deserved the win IMO.
 
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