indy 500

captjohn67

Pretty much a regular
9-11 (+6.00) nice 0-3 effort from me last weekend

if you are thinking a longshot will come home for you in this race, history will beg to differ. Since the year 2000, only three races have been one by someone outside the big 3 (Andretti, Ganassi, Penske) Buddy Rice won from the pole in 2004, Wheldon came home as a +2200 (from memory) in 2011, and Kanaan last year as a +1000ish. I had Munoz at +4000 last year and the man was sitting in a rocket and almost brought it home....almost being the operative word (2nd place).

when you begin discussing the indy 500, you have to speak of the Andretti curse and the green car angle. Gaston Chevrolet won the race in a green car in 1920, and died later that year in the same car. Drivers, being the superstitious creatures that they are, typically avoided the color until Jim Clark won in 1965 sporting green. Believe what you wish, it still needs to be mentioned. I know, I know.

yesterdays practice session -- obviously the Andretti camp is leading the charge, Montoya is representing for Penske, and Dixon is the current flag-bearer for Ganassi

let's talk about Kurt Busch for a moment. He is the first man to try and run both the indy 500 and the race at Charlotte since Robby Gordon in 2004. He has been quite impressive in the three sessions, improving from 12th, to 9th, to a head turning 2nd yesterday. My comments on this would be whatthehellever. let's get him in race conditions with Saavedra running side by side with him and see what transpires. I will make my first prediction, and is that he will find the turn 4 wall. I will look to fade him against whoever they care to post against him. Well maybe not just anyone, but damn near it.

Kanaan - 6 top 5's in 12 attempts and no Mouse on his back anymore ( one could argue he had his own curse here) He hasn't really meshed with his new team that well and is not currently blistering the track, but i'll hope for a favorable matchup and we'll see

i'll post some more specific driver info later and feel free to add anything you can think of...
 
Thanks SIGO, much appreciated :cheers:

so some may be thinking qualifying isn't that big of a deal in such a long race. Not so fast my friend. Out of the 97 races run, a rather staggering 43% of the winners have come from the first three qualifying positions. Since the year 2000, 7 of the 13 winners have come from the front row. Hello.

RHR - currently sitting 2nd in the points and in good form. He has a 6th and a 3rd in 6 attempts, the rest were shitty performances. He has been in the top 5 in all three practice sessions and is most certainly a contender, even given his questionable history here.

Marco - I know I mentioned the infamous Andretti curse, but what I didn't mention is that he has finished in the top 4 in half of his 8 attempts. The first session this year he clearly had a hangover, but has found his form and is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Don't think i'll be involved with the short +600ish, but I will certainly entertain a matchup

Hinch - catching debris with your noggin is ill advised, but Viso is manning the ship while he sips on pina coladas and clears the cobwebs. One top 6 in 3 attempts and questions concerning his health, and just as importantly, his mindset, make me place him on the hopeful fade side

Munoz - my little Colombian buddy that I love so much has balls the size of grapefruits. Will he give you the amazing 2nd place like last year here, or will he give you the Fontana mistake from last year?? Feast or famine in my eyes and i reserve the right to think on this one.

Saavedra - I hate to be critical, but this dumbfuck stalled it last week and tried to kill people. I wouldn't be so critical if he manned up and said, "I simply screwed the pooch" instead of I went thru the protocol and blah, blah, blah. Three attempts here and his best finish was 23rd. Let's all hold hands and pray they post him....but you know damn well they won't.

Sato - everyone remembers him diving low on Franchitti in turn one and going for it in 2012. I would recommend you not do such and concentrate on his avg finish of 20.75 in 4 attempts.

Wilson - past 2 years he has a 7th and a 5th and looked strong in the second session before losing it in the last....will prolly avoid him altogether, but it is still early

Power - how the hell a man can be such an accomplished street/road course racer and not be able to turn left boggles the mind. Qualifies well here ( 8.33) but struggles mightily (14.5) when the checkered flag is in the air

more later....
 
Hildebrand - sitting in Ed Carpenter's pole winning ride from last year and posted the second fastest time yesterday. I never thought he recovered from the soul crushing wreck here in the final turn on the last lap that allowed Wheldon to get his second and final Borg-Warner trophy in 2011. He finished 11th in the points in 2012, ran over Power at St Pete in early 2013 (while under caution btw) then wrecked on the third lap here....and then he was gone. Thrown on the rubbish heap of drivers that get recycled for this race. Got to love the ride he is in, but you don't have to love him or his skill set.

Helio - another chance to get his 4th victory and be only the 4th man to do so. In 13 attempts he has finished in the top 4 a remarkable 6 times and in the top 10 eleven of the thirteen. Outstanding. Lay the juice and play him against Montoya and count your money?? that is my intention at the moment.

Dixon - finished in the top 6 in 11 of his 13 trips here with 3 podiums. Third fastest yesterday and is a tempting +700ish.

Rahal - 6 attempts, finished 3rd here in 2011, and never got higher than 12th on any of his other runs. He hasn't finished better than 13th in a race this year and has been near the bottom of every session. Abysmal, atrocious, crackhead, etc.

Bourdais - 12th was the best effort in 3 attaempts. Finally got a top 10 last weekend with his new team, but I feel this is still work to be done and has been unimpressive in the sessions so far. Pass or fade material.

Briscoe - 8 attempts - qualifies better than he finishes (11.25v. 15.25) Does have two top 5's and was a damn respectable 5th yesterday
 
Carpenter - 10th attempt with a 5th and a 10th with the rest being completely forgettable. Currently a nice effort going on today, but I wonder how rusty he is since he has handed off road course action to Conway

Newgarden- 25th and a 28th in his only two - pretty much improved every session, but I would say pass

Pagenaud - 16th and a 8th in his only two efforts. The man hasn't done worse than fifth in a race this year and topped the charts yesterday. Not sure how you can criticize him and expect a damn fine showing from him. Saw a +2800 on him early, but you can sure as hell forget about that now. Damnit, damnit, damnit.

Servia - one podium (3rd) and a 5th in 5 attempts, but he has been mired a the bottom of the charts in the sessions and don't have high hopes for him in this spot

that's all I got and we'll talk again this Sunday...

:cheers:
 
well it was turn 2, not turn 4. He was quoted as saying "100% just working in traffic". Still don't have any numbers up.

[video=youtube;pG-NdMS1Imw]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG-NdMS1Imw[/video]
 
helio +650 (0.30)
kanaan +1600 (0.10)
pagenaud +1900 (0.10)
newgarden +4000 (0.05)

--would like to think matchups will be up later today
--pagenaud wearing tribute helmet for senna
--looks like green cars are hawksworth, carpenter + munoz if you care
--busch will be in marco's back up ride
--have been 8 rookie winners fwiw...last were montoya (2000) and helio (2001)
 
adding:

pagenaud +115 hinch
newgarden -115 Hildebrand

that will probably be it unless a busch matchup surfaces. Finally have a Saavedra matchup, but i'll pass

GLTA :cheers:
 
I honestly consider Kurt Busch the fav. Big racecar guy here, I will give my thoughts tomorrow
 
obviously we disagree, but I look forward to hearing your thoughts. Best of luck Slaptron.

this x1000

There is Zero chance Kurt wins this Sunday, unless the entire field wipes out. If he gets a top 10 I think that would be a huge accomplishment.
 
adding helio -130 Montoya

they have villeneuve +130 busch.....not that tempting or surprising who they put him against

good luck today gentlemen :cheers:
 
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