Individual Game Discussion: Georgia vs Georgia Tech
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
17 is a lot of points. UGA, although talented, is a level below last year. PJ is still one of the best drive to drive adjuster in the game.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Georgia is 6-0 SU and ATS vs. Tech before playing in the SECCG. Years were 2002, 2003, 2005, 2011, 2012, and 2017, so last three times were against PJ's offense, with covers by 8.5, 17.5, and 19.5.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Just what Kirby wants, chop blocks galore the week before playing Alabama.
I don't think the triple option is as unique to a defense if they are playing it every year. Time is spent in spring and fall camp going against it. I wouldn't love facing it, no matter how familiar, the week before your biggest game of the season. I'm sure many are looking forward, but UGA cannot afford to lose this one and stay alive for the playoffs. 17.5 does feel high to me, but I'm not sure I want to get involved here.
I don't think the triple option is as unique to a defense if they are playing it every year. Time is spent in spring and fall camp going against it. I wouldn't love facing it, no matter how familiar, the week before your biggest game of the season. I'm sure many are looking forward, but UGA cannot afford to lose this one and stay alive for the playoffs. 17.5 does feel high to me, but I'm not sure I want to get involved here.
Thanks for the thoughts so far...
Anyone else?
Let me get out of the way my angles for starting this thread...
1. Discussion
2. Follow Georgia closely
3. I think many of us have been on the Retro-GT Train for a awhile there this fall
4. Line is currently 17. I still feel like this is a lot of points but we know how explosive UGA can be
5. My main thing though is I have the large RSW on Georgia RSW that needs this win, well, to win. The initial ML on Tech was around 700 but is down to 600 now. So, I am looking at options for hedging slightly or perhaps live-betting.
Anyone else?
Let me get out of the way my angles for starting this thread...
1. Discussion
2. Follow Georgia closely
3. I think many of us have been on the Retro-GT Train for a awhile there this fall
4. Line is currently 17. I still feel like this is a lot of points but we know how explosive UGA can be
5. My main thing though is I have the large RSW on Georgia RSW that needs this win, well, to win. The initial ML on Tech was around 700 but is down to 600 now. So, I am looking at options for hedging slightly or perhaps live-betting.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Maybe look into Alt Lines. Should get + $ w/ points. Example +10.5 @ +275
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Georgia's season / playoff berth will be decided next weekend. They just need to win here, get out with no injuries and prep for Bama (which they're already doing I'm sure.) Can't imagine a full throttle effort.
Speaking of UGA and effort, she bounces back quite nicely after getting taken out last weekend.
[video]
Speaking of UGA and effort, she bounces back quite nicely after getting taken out last weekend.
[video]
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Shouldn't there be reason for concern with the GT D here?
With alot of option teams the talk is usually geared towards what the opponent will do to deal with a unique offense.
But GT's D isn't that great - can they matchup vs Georgia?
I've not looked at this ESPN "Team Efficiency" stat before...they have GT D ranked 88th.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/sort/defEfficiency/tab/efficiency
Then there are other things...such as GT has allowed 50% or greater 3rd down conversions in 8 of their 11 games (their overall 3rd down conv allowed ranks 128th out of 130 teams). They sacked Duke 4x, then had just 12 sacks in their other 10 games. They allow 64.4% pass completions, although just a 18-12 ratio so they get a good number of INTs. UVA's QB just completed 22-of-28 for 273 (9.8 ypa). GT run D has allowed 4.4+ ypc in 7 of 11 games. GT allowed nearly 65% red zone D TDs (23 out of 35), only LV and WF are worse in the ACC at this rate.
There are people that have watched much more GT football than me - how have they managed to be so good with some bad D numbers...maybe stats really are for losers? Or could it just be that their opponents faced have been such that these issues haven't hurt them much?
I'm always thinking about ways big dogs can compete with teams they aren't expected to, especially in rivalry games. Here when I dug deeper I was having a hard time finding much to back up GT, atleast on their D side.
With alot of option teams the talk is usually geared towards what the opponent will do to deal with a unique offense.
But GT's D isn't that great - can they matchup vs Georgia?
I've not looked at this ESPN "Team Efficiency" stat before...they have GT D ranked 88th.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/sort/defEfficiency/tab/efficiency
Then there are other things...such as GT has allowed 50% or greater 3rd down conversions in 8 of their 11 games (their overall 3rd down conv allowed ranks 128th out of 130 teams). They sacked Duke 4x, then had just 12 sacks in their other 10 games. They allow 64.4% pass completions, although just a 18-12 ratio so they get a good number of INTs. UVA's QB just completed 22-of-28 for 273 (9.8 ypa). GT run D has allowed 4.4+ ypc in 7 of 11 games. GT allowed nearly 65% red zone D TDs (23 out of 35), only LV and WF are worse in the ACC at this rate.
There are people that have watched much more GT football than me - how have they managed to be so good with some bad D numbers...maybe stats really are for losers? Or could it just be that their opponents faced have been such that these issues haven't hurt them much?
I'm always thinking about ways big dogs can compete with teams they aren't expected to, especially in rivalry games. Here when I dug deeper I was having a hard time finding much to back up GT, atleast on their D side.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I have watched much more UGA than GT, and have come away very unimpressed with their defense. Fortunately, sack numbers will not mean much here.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Well,
GT is my favorite team this year when it comes to value. Since the last week in Sep18, I won with them ATS against BGSU, Ville, VT, UNC and Miami. As they needed a great run for bowl eligibility, got it and then had uga on deck, I laid off of them last week against UVA. Happy for them that they won there.
They are, clearly, the second best team in the ACC in my estimation.
With that said, they are probably going to struggle to stop Georgia's offense which gained over 700 yards last week. I don't think it is worth much time determining if UGA is going to score. They are. The question is how many possessions do they get to score on and how often do they stop GT.
I want to point out that this GT option attack is the best one they have had under PJ as far as I am concerned. They are annihilating teams. UGA with a better front seven last year and with GT not as solid on offense, held them down pretty good but they look a little more vulnerable to the run this year. I think GT can both get some chunk plays here and there and also grind out first downs and clock.
If not, they get trucked. And they could get trucked anyway if UGA's best offense shows up.
With the rule changes, you don't get the same level of chop blocks from option attacks as you used to, so that isn't as big a factor as it was in prior times when an option attack played against NFL caliber defenders who were trying to protect themselves rather than tackle.
GT secondary is a real problem and given UGA will be able to run too, they are going to be less inclined to drop back a lot.
Another issue is the Special Teams .. to say UGA has a huge advantage would be an understatement. Jackets kick coverage is as bad as it gets and the UGA FG kicker is superior as well. Have to expect PJ to go for quite a few fourth downs as usual.
Another concern is high caliber, strong defenders for dogs against a GT ballhandling crew that doesn't mind fumbling.
I took the points. Quite frankly, I took them because I think the possessions might be low and because I think GT is just a pretty good football team, with a pretty good coach, and who were looking ahead to this game last week and still won. They could get curb stomped .. that game is there in more than just a handful of the times if they played this game 100 times, but they just might be pretty darn competitive and if UGA is up 23 late and saving starters, good luck stopping the option with your backups.
GT is my favorite team this year when it comes to value. Since the last week in Sep18, I won with them ATS against BGSU, Ville, VT, UNC and Miami. As they needed a great run for bowl eligibility, got it and then had uga on deck, I laid off of them last week against UVA. Happy for them that they won there.
They are, clearly, the second best team in the ACC in my estimation.
With that said, they are probably going to struggle to stop Georgia's offense which gained over 700 yards last week. I don't think it is worth much time determining if UGA is going to score. They are. The question is how many possessions do they get to score on and how often do they stop GT.
I want to point out that this GT option attack is the best one they have had under PJ as far as I am concerned. They are annihilating teams. UGA with a better front seven last year and with GT not as solid on offense, held them down pretty good but they look a little more vulnerable to the run this year. I think GT can both get some chunk plays here and there and also grind out first downs and clock.
If not, they get trucked. And they could get trucked anyway if UGA's best offense shows up.
With the rule changes, you don't get the same level of chop blocks from option attacks as you used to, so that isn't as big a factor as it was in prior times when an option attack played against NFL caliber defenders who were trying to protect themselves rather than tackle.
GT secondary is a real problem and given UGA will be able to run too, they are going to be less inclined to drop back a lot.
Another issue is the Special Teams .. to say UGA has a huge advantage would be an understatement. Jackets kick coverage is as bad as it gets and the UGA FG kicker is superior as well. Have to expect PJ to go for quite a few fourth downs as usual.
Another concern is high caliber, strong defenders for dogs against a GT ballhandling crew that doesn't mind fumbling.
I took the points. Quite frankly, I took them because I think the possessions might be low and because I think GT is just a pretty good football team, with a pretty good coach, and who were looking ahead to this game last week and still won. They could get curb stomped .. that game is there in more than just a handful of the times if they played this game 100 times, but they just might be pretty darn competitive and if UGA is up 23 late and saving starters, good luck stopping the option with your backups.
