Star-Studded Tribe and Yankee Sluggers Will Stay Silent in Saturday Soiree
When Cleveland hosts the Yankees Saturday at 7:15 ET on Fox, the pitchers will steal centerstage.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
MLB Pick: 1H Under
New York’s CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.34 ERA) is a terrible road bet, but that's not his fault. The „under“ is 6-1 in his away starts.
Sabathia started out his career pitching for Cleveland. But Cleveland won’t benefit from any additional familiarity with Sabathia, who had long since become a Yankee when he adjusted his pitching arsenal in 2014 by making his four-seam fastball no longer be his favorite pitch. By 2016, he eliminated it almost completely from his repertoire. Currently, Sabathia relies on a cutter-slider combo and mixes in a sinker and change-up. Because he no longer enjoys the velocity of his youth, the key for Sabathia has become good location. He throws his pitches with at least 4.9% frequency in eight different spots, six of which are on the frames of the zone. Meanwhile, he avoids the middle of the plate. His precision contributes to his high soft contact rate, which has exceeded his career average in each season since his transformation in 2016.
Since 2016, Cleveland bats have performed poorly against Sabathia, producing a .187 xBA and .299 xSLG. xBA and xSLG are metrics that are like BA and SLG, but measure a batter’s skill based on quality of contact and factoring out defense. Current Cleveland batters are hitting .214 and slugging .282 against Sabathia. In 206 at-bats, they have only two homers against him. This last statistic is reassuring because Sabathia has allowed at least one homer in all of his worst games. On May 4, Sabathia shut out Cleveland through six innings, and he has succeeded in each of his rematches, unless he struggled in the first game as well. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez hit him well, but nobody else.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Mike Clevinger (7-4, 3.34 ERA) looks to bounce back after one of his worst starts. Clevinger tends to be solid when he had allowed a homer in his previous start. He allowed more than two runs in only one of five such instances. Two of his four multi-strikeout performances came after allowing a homer in his last start.
Against Cincinnati, Clevinger was off. He struggled to command his fastball, leaving it with more than twice as much frequency in the two most middle parts of the plate, compared to his season average. His fastball is his favorite pitch, so he was trapped. The Reds took advantage of his struggles, slugging 1.500 against his fastball in the heart of the plate. Clevinger tried to compensate for his missing command by adding much more spin on his fastball, which explains why he struck out so many batters. But he allowed a season-high hard contact percentage. Conversely, when he succeeded against the Yanks on May 6, he left his fastball with less than half as much frequency in the heart of the plate and instead placed it most often in the periphery or lowest corner of the zone.
The key for Clevinger will be to create propitious counts for himself. He has struggled in each of the three outings in which he threw a first-pitch strike with less than 60% frequency, When he’s ahead of the count, he relies on his fastball least frequently. He throws his change-up, slider, and curve with 47% frequency and opponents bat under .200 against each of those pitches. His slider is his top pitch. It lacks vertical movement, but „slides“ an average of almost 10 inches. He’s able to place it consistently in the strike zone. Before his last dud, Clevinger had yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 3.00 in five consecutive starts and threw a first-pitch strike with over 65% frequency.
When Cleveland hosts the Yankees Saturday at 7:15 ET on Fox, the pitchers will steal centerstage.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
MLB Pick: 1H Under
New York’s CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.34 ERA) is a terrible road bet, but that's not his fault. The „under“ is 6-1 in his away starts.
Sabathia started out his career pitching for Cleveland. But Cleveland won’t benefit from any additional familiarity with Sabathia, who had long since become a Yankee when he adjusted his pitching arsenal in 2014 by making his four-seam fastball no longer be his favorite pitch. By 2016, he eliminated it almost completely from his repertoire. Currently, Sabathia relies on a cutter-slider combo and mixes in a sinker and change-up. Because he no longer enjoys the velocity of his youth, the key for Sabathia has become good location. He throws his pitches with at least 4.9% frequency in eight different spots, six of which are on the frames of the zone. Meanwhile, he avoids the middle of the plate. His precision contributes to his high soft contact rate, which has exceeded his career average in each season since his transformation in 2016.
Since 2016, Cleveland bats have performed poorly against Sabathia, producing a .187 xBA and .299 xSLG. xBA and xSLG are metrics that are like BA and SLG, but measure a batter’s skill based on quality of contact and factoring out defense. Current Cleveland batters are hitting .214 and slugging .282 against Sabathia. In 206 at-bats, they have only two homers against him. This last statistic is reassuring because Sabathia has allowed at least one homer in all of his worst games. On May 4, Sabathia shut out Cleveland through six innings, and he has succeeded in each of his rematches, unless he struggled in the first game as well. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez hit him well, but nobody else.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Mike Clevinger (7-4, 3.34 ERA) looks to bounce back after one of his worst starts. Clevinger tends to be solid when he had allowed a homer in his previous start. He allowed more than two runs in only one of five such instances. Two of his four multi-strikeout performances came after allowing a homer in his last start.
Against Cincinnati, Clevinger was off. He struggled to command his fastball, leaving it with more than twice as much frequency in the two most middle parts of the plate, compared to his season average. His fastball is his favorite pitch, so he was trapped. The Reds took advantage of his struggles, slugging 1.500 against his fastball in the heart of the plate. Clevinger tried to compensate for his missing command by adding much more spin on his fastball, which explains why he struck out so many batters. But he allowed a season-high hard contact percentage. Conversely, when he succeeded against the Yanks on May 6, he left his fastball with less than half as much frequency in the heart of the plate and instead placed it most often in the periphery or lowest corner of the zone.
The key for Clevinger will be to create propitious counts for himself. He has struggled in each of the three outings in which he threw a first-pitch strike with less than 60% frequency, When he’s ahead of the count, he relies on his fastball least frequently. He throws his change-up, slider, and curve with 47% frequency and opponents bat under .200 against each of those pitches. His slider is his top pitch. It lacks vertical movement, but „slides“ an average of almost 10 inches. He’s able to place it consistently in the strike zone. Before his last dud, Clevinger had yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 3.00 in five consecutive starts and threw a first-pitch strike with over 65% frequency.
