Indians Will Leave Reds Feeling Blue in Battle of Ohio
Cleveland begins a three-game home series against Cincinnati at 7:10 ET. A pitching mismatch will decide this intra-state matchup in Cleveland’s favor.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
MLB Pick: Cleveland 1H RL
Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger (7-3, 3.11 ERA) is in a prime spot to prolong his streak of five straight starts with an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 3.00. He’ll pitch with six days’ rest, in which scenario he is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 12 career starts.
Clevinger has improved from last season, bringing his FIP down from 3.85 to 3.17. He’s strongly reduced his walk rate and is allowing fewer homers. He throws more strikes and pitches rather for contact, which is why his strikeout rate has dropped. But when he does throw outside the zone, he is inducing batters to chase those pitches at a higher rate. For example, his slider was his second-favorite pitch with two strikes and his favorite strikeout-inducing pitch. He, in fact, throws it more often with two strikes. But he throws it for a ball with 10 percent less frequency, instead inducing the batter to put it in play with over five percent higher frequency. Clevinger throws it a tad more up in the zone, but gets away with that location because of his slider’s improved location. He killed its previously stark vertical movement, so that it doesn’t hang, and lent it an average of almost three inches more horizontal movement, so that it’s more elusive.
Opponents are batting .181 against his slider, but it’s still only his third-best pitch. Clevinger’s favorite pitch is a four-seam fastball, which he throws about half the time and mixes in a change-up and curve, each with over 10% frequency. He likes to vary his fastball location, but can get away with poor placement. For example, he locates it with six percent frequency in the heart of the plate, bot opponents only slug .238 against it in that spot. His fastball boasts above-average spin rate and velocity.
He lives up to his characteristic tendency to nibble at the corners of the plate with his change-up. He rarely throws his change-up for a strike, but loves to tempt batters into swinging at it because of its precise placement on the edges of the zone and its strong arm-side movement. Clevinger’s curveball fits in well with its change of pace, concentrated location down in the zone, and strong horizontal and vertical movement. As against his change, opponents are batting under .160 against his curve.
The Reds are yielding -8.8 units against right-handed starters. They match up poorly because they rank 24th against the high-velocity (93-98 mph) fastball overall and dead-last away from their hitter-friendly home ballpark.
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Anthony DeSclafani (3-1, 5.08 ERA) is heading in the opposite direction from Clevinger. He has yielded an FIP over 6.00 in three of his past four starts. Opponents have hit eight homers against him in his past four starts.
DeSclafani relies on his sinker, fastball, and slider with between 25 and 33% frequency. He’s never located his fastball this poorly, leaving it with 12% frequency down the middle. Opponents are slugging .667 against it. His fastball explains mostly why he struggles even more against lefties than righties, since he emphasizes this pitch against them with little variety. DeSclafani’s sinker and slider allow fewer hits, but he makes mistakes with their location and concedes too many home runs with them.
Cleveland matches up well against him, ranking sixth in slugging against his top three pitches from righties and metrically they are even underachieving. They rank seventh in average exit velocity against them. The Indians have several dangerous lefties. Michael Brantley slugs .525 against righties and .480 in his past seven days. Switch-hitter Francisco Lindor slugs .564 against righties and is 10-for-23 with two doubles and four homers in his past seven days. Jose Ramirez slugs .641 against righties and .680 in his past seven days.
Cleveland begins a three-game home series against Cincinnati at 7:10 ET. A pitching mismatch will decide this intra-state matchup in Cleveland’s favor.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
MLB Pick: Cleveland 1H RL
Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger (7-3, 3.11 ERA) is in a prime spot to prolong his streak of five straight starts with an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 3.00. He’ll pitch with six days’ rest, in which scenario he is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 12 career starts.
Clevinger has improved from last season, bringing his FIP down from 3.85 to 3.17. He’s strongly reduced his walk rate and is allowing fewer homers. He throws more strikes and pitches rather for contact, which is why his strikeout rate has dropped. But when he does throw outside the zone, he is inducing batters to chase those pitches at a higher rate. For example, his slider was his second-favorite pitch with two strikes and his favorite strikeout-inducing pitch. He, in fact, throws it more often with two strikes. But he throws it for a ball with 10 percent less frequency, instead inducing the batter to put it in play with over five percent higher frequency. Clevinger throws it a tad more up in the zone, but gets away with that location because of his slider’s improved location. He killed its previously stark vertical movement, so that it doesn’t hang, and lent it an average of almost three inches more horizontal movement, so that it’s more elusive.
Opponents are batting .181 against his slider, but it’s still only his third-best pitch. Clevinger’s favorite pitch is a four-seam fastball, which he throws about half the time and mixes in a change-up and curve, each with over 10% frequency. He likes to vary his fastball location, but can get away with poor placement. For example, he locates it with six percent frequency in the heart of the plate, bot opponents only slug .238 against it in that spot. His fastball boasts above-average spin rate and velocity.
He lives up to his characteristic tendency to nibble at the corners of the plate with his change-up. He rarely throws his change-up for a strike, but loves to tempt batters into swinging at it because of its precise placement on the edges of the zone and its strong arm-side movement. Clevinger’s curveball fits in well with its change of pace, concentrated location down in the zone, and strong horizontal and vertical movement. As against his change, opponents are batting under .160 against his curve.
The Reds are yielding -8.8 units against right-handed starters. They match up poorly because they rank 24th against the high-velocity (93-98 mph) fastball overall and dead-last away from their hitter-friendly home ballpark.
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Anthony DeSclafani (3-1, 5.08 ERA) is heading in the opposite direction from Clevinger. He has yielded an FIP over 6.00 in three of his past four starts. Opponents have hit eight homers against him in his past four starts.
DeSclafani relies on his sinker, fastball, and slider with between 25 and 33% frequency. He’s never located his fastball this poorly, leaving it with 12% frequency down the middle. Opponents are slugging .667 against it. His fastball explains mostly why he struggles even more against lefties than righties, since he emphasizes this pitch against them with little variety. DeSclafani’s sinker and slider allow fewer hits, but he makes mistakes with their location and concedes too many home runs with them.
Cleveland matches up well against him, ranking sixth in slugging against his top three pitches from righties and metrically they are even underachieving. They rank seventh in average exit velocity against them. The Indians have several dangerous lefties. Michael Brantley slugs .525 against righties and .480 in his past seven days. Switch-hitter Francisco Lindor slugs .564 against righties and is 10-for-23 with two doubles and four homers in his past seven days. Jose Ramirez slugs .641 against righties and .680 in his past seven days.
