Cleveland Ace Won’t Stop Brewers in Bounce-back Mode
Cleveland will try to halt a three-game skid when it begins a three-game series versus Milwaukee at 7:10 ET tonight. The Indians are heavy chalk. Betting on them to win would be catastrophic for your bankroll.
MLB Picks: Brewers RL & ‚Under‘ 7.5
After losing three straight road games, Cleveland looks like a golden bet at home with ace Corey Kluber. But Cleveland is actually in a terrible betting spot. Kluber is yielding -5.3 units when Cleveland opens -200 or more. Cleveland's run-line is 0-4 in its first home game after playing on the road. Conversely, Milwaukee, and the „under,“ are 8-1 after losing by 4+ runs.
Cleveland’s Kluber (8-2, 2.02 ERA) is in elite form. He’s shut out three of his past four opponents with a 31:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Kluber is enjoying an uptick in velocity. HIs most important pitches are the sinker, cutter and curveball. HIs curveball shows little vertical movement, but significant horizontal movement that makes it elusive while moving across the plate to entice batters to swing. In April opponents batted under .111 against it and under .105 in May. It’s his go-to pitch with runners on base, in which scenario opponents are hitting .063 against it.
His two other most frequent pitches, the sinker and cutter, haven’t been as successful because he’s not as frequently locating them low and away or inside relative to the batter. In May, opponents hit .319 against the sinker and .250 against the cutter. Both averages are up over .120 from April. On May 8, the Brewers exploited his sinker, hitting .400 against it, despite having an unlucky day overall with a very low .176 BABIP (batting average of balls in play). Kluber struck them out a season-low four times. He yielded a 6.61 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) against them because their batted balls were not landing for hits with average frequency, which contributed to a ridiculously high 93% left-on-base percentage.
Milwaukee can get Kluber out of the game before the seventh inning by upping his pitch count by hitting his more vulnerable pitches and being clutch to reduce Kluber’s unsustainable 90% runners-left-on-base rate. In the past month, Milwaukee has the sixth-highest BA with runners in scoring position. Watch for Travis Shaw, who is 5-for-14 lifetime against Kluber with two homers.
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Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.65 ERA) has allowed two runs or fewer in his past four starts. His stuff proved excellent against Cleveland batters when he struck out nine on May 9. He earned a 3.31 FIP, but was the victim of a ridiculously high .500 BABIP.
Guerra relies mostly on a fastball. He threw it 63% of the time against the Indians, who slugged only .200 against it. Cleveland ranks 20th in slugging the fastball from right-handed hitters at Guerra’s average velocity of 93-95 mph. Guerra developed the habit of locating his fastball more frequently on the corners and peripheries of the strike zone and further away from more dangerous locations. For instance, from April 22 to May 4, he threw his fastball with 9.48% frequency over the heart of the plate. Since then, he’s cut that number to 4.44%.
Milwaukee's bullpen will be fundamental to the „under“ and Brewers RL. It ranks fourth in FIP, but also had to throw 20+ more innings than the top three teams. In their past 29 innings, Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress have allowed only three runs combined.
Conversely, the Indians bullpen has been a notorious disaster, ranking last in FIP. In the two non-blowouts of its past series, they gave up combined eight runs after the sixth inning. The Brewers rank 11th in the past month in slugging in the last three innings.
Kluber, Guerra and the Brewers’ bullpen will secure the „under.“ Guerra and Milwaukee’s bullpen advantage will allow Milwaukee to possibly even win.
Cleveland will try to halt a three-game skid when it begins a three-game series versus Milwaukee at 7:10 ET tonight. The Indians are heavy chalk. Betting on them to win would be catastrophic for your bankroll.
MLB Picks: Brewers RL & ‚Under‘ 7.5
After losing three straight road games, Cleveland looks like a golden bet at home with ace Corey Kluber. But Cleveland is actually in a terrible betting spot. Kluber is yielding -5.3 units when Cleveland opens -200 or more. Cleveland's run-line is 0-4 in its first home game after playing on the road. Conversely, Milwaukee, and the „under,“ are 8-1 after losing by 4+ runs.
Cleveland’s Kluber (8-2, 2.02 ERA) is in elite form. He’s shut out three of his past four opponents with a 31:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Kluber is enjoying an uptick in velocity. HIs most important pitches are the sinker, cutter and curveball. HIs curveball shows little vertical movement, but significant horizontal movement that makes it elusive while moving across the plate to entice batters to swing. In April opponents batted under .111 against it and under .105 in May. It’s his go-to pitch with runners on base, in which scenario opponents are hitting .063 against it.
His two other most frequent pitches, the sinker and cutter, haven’t been as successful because he’s not as frequently locating them low and away or inside relative to the batter. In May, opponents hit .319 against the sinker and .250 against the cutter. Both averages are up over .120 from April. On May 8, the Brewers exploited his sinker, hitting .400 against it, despite having an unlucky day overall with a very low .176 BABIP (batting average of balls in play). Kluber struck them out a season-low four times. He yielded a 6.61 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) against them because their batted balls were not landing for hits with average frequency, which contributed to a ridiculously high 93% left-on-base percentage.
Milwaukee can get Kluber out of the game before the seventh inning by upping his pitch count by hitting his more vulnerable pitches and being clutch to reduce Kluber’s unsustainable 90% runners-left-on-base rate. In the past month, Milwaukee has the sixth-highest BA with runners in scoring position. Watch for Travis Shaw, who is 5-for-14 lifetime against Kluber with two homers.
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Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.65 ERA) has allowed two runs or fewer in his past four starts. His stuff proved excellent against Cleveland batters when he struck out nine on May 9. He earned a 3.31 FIP, but was the victim of a ridiculously high .500 BABIP.
Guerra relies mostly on a fastball. He threw it 63% of the time against the Indians, who slugged only .200 against it. Cleveland ranks 20th in slugging the fastball from right-handed hitters at Guerra’s average velocity of 93-95 mph. Guerra developed the habit of locating his fastball more frequently on the corners and peripheries of the strike zone and further away from more dangerous locations. For instance, from April 22 to May 4, he threw his fastball with 9.48% frequency over the heart of the plate. Since then, he’s cut that number to 4.44%.
Milwaukee's bullpen will be fundamental to the „under“ and Brewers RL. It ranks fourth in FIP, but also had to throw 20+ more innings than the top three teams. In their past 29 innings, Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress have allowed only three runs combined.
Conversely, the Indians bullpen has been a notorious disaster, ranking last in FIP. In the two non-blowouts of its past series, they gave up combined eight runs after the sixth inning. The Brewers rank 11th in the past month in slugging in the last three innings.
Kluber, Guerra and the Brewers’ bullpen will secure the „under.“ Guerra and Milwaukee’s bullpen advantage will allow Milwaukee to possibly even win.
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