NCAA Football Week 14 Parlay Plays for Saturday
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin
Favoring Wisconsin by 14 points shows too much respect to a Badger team whose only achievements this season have been beating two of the worst Big Ten teams in Illinois and Michigan.
On the flip side, dogging the Hoosiers by two touchdowns shows too little respect to them. The Hoosiers have stayed within a touchdown of Ohio State, beat a Penn State team that at that time still had something to fight for, and won every other game by double digits.
Indiana is 6-0 ATS this season because oddsmakers undervalue them.
Jack Tuttle
Does the injury to starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. justify the size of the spread?
His backup quarterback, Jack Tuttle, is more than talented. He was a four-star recruit whom some recruiting services judged to be one of the top quarterbacks and one of the very best pro-style quarterbacks in the 2018 recruiting cycle.
So head coach Tom Allen was accurate when he compared the talent level of Tuttle and Penix. If Tuttle isn’t less talented than Penix at least to a meaningful degree, then the only other worry about Tuttle as a quarterback would revolve around prospective problems like experience and playing time.
But Tuttle already played some last year and this year. He is already comfortable running the Hoosier offense.
After Penix went down last week against Maryland, Tuttle stepped in to lead a touchdown drive. In that game, he completed all five of his pass attempts.
Wisconsin’s Loss
Folks are (foolishly) rushing to bet on Wisconsin after hearing about the injury to Indiana’s starting quarterback.
However, the only meaningful loss will prove to be that suffered by the Badger secondary.
Wisconsin’s top cover corner, its star guy in the secondary, was Rachad Wildgoose.
Wildgoose has opted out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Hoosier Wide Receivers
Wildgoose’s departure creates an amplified opportunity for Indiana’s wide receivers, which are some of the best in the conference.
Ty Fryfogle is historically good as he’s the first player in Big Ten history to achieve two consecutive games with 200+ receiving yards.
Whop Philyor is right behind Fryfogle in terms of number of receptions this season.
An All-Big Ten second-teamer last year, Philyor will help give the Badger secondary by far its toughest test of the season as Indiana possesses at least one of the conference’s strongest wide receiver crews.
Wisconsin Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Wisconsin’s quarterback put up great numbers against soft Illini and Wolverine secondaries.
But Graham Mertz's debacle against Northwestern — which limited the Badgers to seven points — shows that he is vulnerable to pressure.
A strong pass rush will flummox Mertz, disrupting his chemistry with his receivers and his rhythm.
The Hoosiers execute a heavy load of zone blitzes and instances of delayed pressure or staggered blitzes.
They can run these delayed pressures because they enjoy a strong secondary that effectively mixes man and zone looks, creating a variety in looks that keeps opposing quarterbacks off-balance, and helps keeps them from finding a target.
The depth of IU’s secondary with its bevy of cover corners who will stay on their man thus contributes to the fact that the Hoosiers rank 18th nationally in sack percentage.
Running the ball won’t be a constant option or a consistent source of success, either, for Wisconsin’s offense.
Right now, Indiana ranks a respectable 47th nationally in run defense. Part of this success stems from the defensive backs’ relatively strong involvement in run defense and their contribution to the defense’s open-field tackling ability.
Otherwise, Indiana's size in the interior, veteran quality at end, overall depth on the defensive line, and the explosiveness of linebackers Micah McFadden and Cam Jones will limit a Badger run game that no longer has a star to depend on.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN) at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama
Run Game Comparison
The winner of this game is going to run the ball more effectively.
Auburn’s worst games both offensively and overall have come when the team struggled to run the ball.
When the Tigers lost 27-6 to Georgia, for example, they only mustered 39 rushing yards on 22 attempts.
Likewise, when Auburn mustered 13 points in last week’s blowout loss to Alabama, the Tigers averaged 2.9 YPA on 42 rushing attempts.
Texas A&M will limit Auburn’s offense because the Aggies boast the SEC’s second-best run defense in terms of opposing rushing yards per game.
Conversely, the Tiger defense ranks fifth-to-last in the SEC in allowing 162.4 rushing yards per game.
The Aggies were rusty on offense last week. But they still boast the third-best running back in the SEC as measured by rushing yards.
Isaiah Spiller will help gash and wear down the Tiger defense. With Spiller, the Aggies love to be physical at the line of scrimmage where they will open up holes for Spiller to penetrate.
Quarterback Comparison
Another significant difference between these teams is that only the Aggies have a reliable passer at quarterback.
Auburn’s Bo Nix wants to run the ball, which he won’t do well against Texas A&M’s run defense.
As a passer, Nix has never been known for his efficiency. He has thrown almost as many interceptions as touchdowns while barely completing over 60 percent of his passes.
In contrast, Kellen Mond has a much higher passer rating than Nix because he doesn’t make the mistakes. Mond has thrown 18 touchdowns to two interceptions.
Mond will also help the Aggies be more efficient in the red zone against a Tiger red zone defense that ranks among the worst by opposing red zone scoring percentage.
Texas A&M has a lot of size — like in 6-5 tight end Jalen Wydermyer — that helps makes it efficient in the red zone.
Best Bet: Parlay Hoosiers +14 at -108 & Aggies ML at -265 at +165 odds with Heritage
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin
Favoring Wisconsin by 14 points shows too much respect to a Badger team whose only achievements this season have been beating two of the worst Big Ten teams in Illinois and Michigan.
On the flip side, dogging the Hoosiers by two touchdowns shows too little respect to them. The Hoosiers have stayed within a touchdown of Ohio State, beat a Penn State team that at that time still had something to fight for, and won every other game by double digits.
Indiana is 6-0 ATS this season because oddsmakers undervalue them.
Jack Tuttle
Does the injury to starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. justify the size of the spread?
His backup quarterback, Jack Tuttle, is more than talented. He was a four-star recruit whom some recruiting services judged to be one of the top quarterbacks and one of the very best pro-style quarterbacks in the 2018 recruiting cycle.
So head coach Tom Allen was accurate when he compared the talent level of Tuttle and Penix. If Tuttle isn’t less talented than Penix at least to a meaningful degree, then the only other worry about Tuttle as a quarterback would revolve around prospective problems like experience and playing time.
But Tuttle already played some last year and this year. He is already comfortable running the Hoosier offense.
After Penix went down last week against Maryland, Tuttle stepped in to lead a touchdown drive. In that game, he completed all five of his pass attempts.
Wisconsin’s Loss
Folks are (foolishly) rushing to bet on Wisconsin after hearing about the injury to Indiana’s starting quarterback.
However, the only meaningful loss will prove to be that suffered by the Badger secondary.
Wisconsin’s top cover corner, its star guy in the secondary, was Rachad Wildgoose.
Wildgoose has opted out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Hoosier Wide Receivers
Wildgoose’s departure creates an amplified opportunity for Indiana’s wide receivers, which are some of the best in the conference.
Ty Fryfogle is historically good as he’s the first player in Big Ten history to achieve two consecutive games with 200+ receiving yards.
Whop Philyor is right behind Fryfogle in terms of number of receptions this season.
An All-Big Ten second-teamer last year, Philyor will help give the Badger secondary by far its toughest test of the season as Indiana possesses at least one of the conference’s strongest wide receiver crews.
Wisconsin Offense vs. Indiana Defense
Wisconsin’s quarterback put up great numbers against soft Illini and Wolverine secondaries.
But Graham Mertz's debacle against Northwestern — which limited the Badgers to seven points — shows that he is vulnerable to pressure.
A strong pass rush will flummox Mertz, disrupting his chemistry with his receivers and his rhythm.
The Hoosiers execute a heavy load of zone blitzes and instances of delayed pressure or staggered blitzes.
They can run these delayed pressures because they enjoy a strong secondary that effectively mixes man and zone looks, creating a variety in looks that keeps opposing quarterbacks off-balance, and helps keeps them from finding a target.
The depth of IU’s secondary with its bevy of cover corners who will stay on their man thus contributes to the fact that the Hoosiers rank 18th nationally in sack percentage.
Running the ball won’t be a constant option or a consistent source of success, either, for Wisconsin’s offense.
Right now, Indiana ranks a respectable 47th nationally in run defense. Part of this success stems from the defensive backs’ relatively strong involvement in run defense and their contribution to the defense’s open-field tackling ability.
Otherwise, Indiana's size in the interior, veteran quality at end, overall depth on the defensive line, and the explosiveness of linebackers Micah McFadden and Cam Jones will limit a Badger run game that no longer has a star to depend on.
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Auburn Tigers
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at noon ET (ESPN) at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Alabama
Run Game Comparison
The winner of this game is going to run the ball more effectively.
Auburn’s worst games both offensively and overall have come when the team struggled to run the ball.
When the Tigers lost 27-6 to Georgia, for example, they only mustered 39 rushing yards on 22 attempts.
Likewise, when Auburn mustered 13 points in last week’s blowout loss to Alabama, the Tigers averaged 2.9 YPA on 42 rushing attempts.
Texas A&M will limit Auburn’s offense because the Aggies boast the SEC’s second-best run defense in terms of opposing rushing yards per game.
Conversely, the Tiger defense ranks fifth-to-last in the SEC in allowing 162.4 rushing yards per game.
The Aggies were rusty on offense last week. But they still boast the third-best running back in the SEC as measured by rushing yards.
Isaiah Spiller will help gash and wear down the Tiger defense. With Spiller, the Aggies love to be physical at the line of scrimmage where they will open up holes for Spiller to penetrate.
Quarterback Comparison
Another significant difference between these teams is that only the Aggies have a reliable passer at quarterback.
Auburn’s Bo Nix wants to run the ball, which he won’t do well against Texas A&M’s run defense.
As a passer, Nix has never been known for his efficiency. He has thrown almost as many interceptions as touchdowns while barely completing over 60 percent of his passes.
In contrast, Kellen Mond has a much higher passer rating than Nix because he doesn’t make the mistakes. Mond has thrown 18 touchdowns to two interceptions.
Mond will also help the Aggies be more efficient in the red zone against a Tiger red zone defense that ranks among the worst by opposing red zone scoring percentage.
Texas A&M has a lot of size — like in 6-5 tight end Jalen Wydermyer — that helps makes it efficient in the red zone.
Best Bet: Parlay Hoosiers +14 at -108 & Aggies ML at -265 at +165 odds with Heritage
