Indiana vs. Ohio State College Football Week 13 Betting Picks
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at noon ET at Ohio Stadium
Overrated Hoosiers
It might seem like the Hoosiers are worth blindly investing in because they are the number-five ranked team in the country and are being dogged so heavily.
However, we have to open our eyes and consider how the Hoosiers got to this point and consider whether their resume justifies trusting them on Saturday.
They are ranked so highly because they are undefeated, but they are undefeated because they haven't played difficult competition.
The best conference opponent that they have faced so far, Washington, ranks eighth in the Big Ten standings.
Despite the fact that Indiana has solely faced soft competition, Ohio State is worth trusting on Saturday because we have been able to see what the Hoosiers can do against high-level players and top-caliber position groups.
They are winning games because they are facing teams whose weaknesses outweigh their rare strengths. They are going to lose badly to Ohio State because the Buckeyes are such a complete group that is filled with top-level talent.
Indiana's Run Defense
The Hoosiers have faced one Big Ten running back who ranks top-five in the conference in rushing yards.
This running back is Washington's Jonah Coleman.
Without having to worry about a pass attack that is as productive as Ohio State's, Indiana conceded 104 rushing yards on 5.5 YPC to Coleman.
Against the only tough ground game that it has faced, one that has a strong running back and a pass attack that a defense needs to respect, Indiana's run defense struggled.
Ohio State's Rush Attack
The Buckeyes have two excellent running backs in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.
While Judkins averages over six YPC, Henderson averages 7.5 YPC.
We know that both running backs truly are excellent because they thrived against Penn State, which has one of the nation's best run defenses, largely because it is stacked with proven defensive tackles who are expected to play in the NFL.
Against this undeniably very talented, high-ranking run defense, both Ohio State running backs averaged well over five YPC.
Indiana's Pass Defense
So far, the best pass attack that Indiana has faced is Maryland's.
The Terrapins have the Big Ten's third-leading passer and the conference's leading wide receiver.
Against Indiana, Maryland scored 28 points largely because quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. threw for close to 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Indiana's pass defense looks good because it allows an average of fewer than 200 passing yards per game.
But when it faced a very talented pass attack, that pass attack exposed the meaninglessness of Indiana's pass defense ranking.
Ohio State's Pass Attack
The Buckeyes pass attack is stacked because it features two wide receivers who rank top-ten in the Big Ten in receiving yards.
Jeremiah Smith is too young to be drafted next year, but there is already speculation that he'll be a top-five draft pick.
With the season still in progress, he already owns the program record for most receiving yards by a freshman.
Fellow wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is likewise expected to be drafted in the first round.
Like Smith, he proves very tough for even solid cornerbacks to cover.
Iowa's secondary, for example, features cornerback Jermari Harris, but the Buckeyes still dropped 35 points largely by leaning on Smith and Egbuka.
Smith, for example, beat Harris for a 53-yard reception.
Ohio State's Will Howard is a quarterback who is also able, on a consistent basis, to deliver accurate passes to his playmakers.
He does have it easy because he can trust his wide receivers to win one-on-one battles, but he deserves credit for completing 74 percent of his passes and throwing 22 touchdowns to five interceptions.
Indiana's Rush Attack
Indiana's offense is strong when it's balanced.
As evident in its last game, when Kurtis Rourke struggled to move the ball against a Michigan defense that was missing its elite cornerback, Indiana will have trouble sustaining drives when its quarterback has to carry his offense
Rourke had to try to carry the Hoosiers because their rush attack was stifled by Michigan.
Heading into the season, PFF ranked Michigan as having the second-best defensive line.
It is undoubtedly a talented group, so we see what happens to Indiana's rush attack when it encounters such a talented defensive line.
Ohio State's Defensive Line
While PFF ranked Michigan's defensive line as number two, it ranked Ohio State's as number one.
The Buckeyes have demonstrated the talent on their defensive line by stymying rush attack after rush attack.
They faced, for example, the Big Ten's leading rusher.
While Iowa's Kaleb Johnson did finish the game with a nice-looking stat line, he did his damage when the game was already decided.
In the first half, Ohio State held him to 19 rushing yards on eight attempts.
Two defensive linemen to watch out for are Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton.
Both Buckeyes run-stuffers have bright futures in the NFL. Video footage displays their strength, power, and explosiveness.
Indiana's rush attack is already declining — it already struggled the week before against Michigan State.
Moreover, valued run-blocker Drew Evans has sustained a season-ending injury. Tyler Stephens, his replacement, graded poorly against the run last week.
Outlook for Ohio State's Elite Pass Defense
Indiana's quarterback Rourke has not faced a pass defense remotely as difficult as Ohio State's.
He suffered his lowest passer rating of the season against a Michigan defense missing its top cornerback.
Against Ohio State, he will lack run support as he did against Michigan, and the Buckeyes have the fourth-best pass defense in the nation thanks to cornerbacks like Denzel Burke, an All-Big Ten First Team selection last year who could be taken in the first round of the next NFL Draft.
As evident in its most recent games, in which it has held quarterbacks to low passer ratings — Penn State's Drew Allar, for example, had his worst game of his season against Ohio State — the Buckeyes' pass defense keeps getting better.
Their ability to sack opposing quarterbacks at a high rate complements their strong coverage abilities.
As evident in their game against Penn State, they'll pressure quarterbacks to throw earlier then they want to, to wide receivers who will not win their one-on-one battle. They'll also often force check-downs, so that the opposing offense gets at most a couple of yards per play.
Takeaway
We have seen teams like Maryland score 28 points against Indiana because it has a strong pass attack.
Ohio State has a stacked pass attack supported by an elite ground game.
We have also seen Indiana struggle to score against Michigan because it has a very talented defensive line.
Ohio State has a high-caliber rush defense that is complemented by a top-level pass defense.
Logically, we should expect Ohio State to exceed 30 points and Indiana to struggle to reach double digits.
I foresee Ohio State winning by over two touchdowns if the Buckeyes play with their usual prolonged stretches of laxity.
The Hoosiers are undefeated and ranked number five, though, so Ohio State will take them seriously.
Sometimes, the Buckeyes fail to take underdogs seriously and fall behind, as they did against Northwestern, although they still manage to rally and win in blowout fashion because they are so talented.
Given the hype surrounding this game, we will see a Buckeyes team that is focused from the beginning.
Indiana is going to get blown out.
Best Bet: Buckeyes ATS
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at noon ET at Ohio Stadium
Overrated Hoosiers
It might seem like the Hoosiers are worth blindly investing in because they are the number-five ranked team in the country and are being dogged so heavily.
However, we have to open our eyes and consider how the Hoosiers got to this point and consider whether their resume justifies trusting them on Saturday.
They are ranked so highly because they are undefeated, but they are undefeated because they haven't played difficult competition.
The best conference opponent that they have faced so far, Washington, ranks eighth in the Big Ten standings.
Despite the fact that Indiana has solely faced soft competition, Ohio State is worth trusting on Saturday because we have been able to see what the Hoosiers can do against high-level players and top-caliber position groups.
They are winning games because they are facing teams whose weaknesses outweigh their rare strengths. They are going to lose badly to Ohio State because the Buckeyes are such a complete group that is filled with top-level talent.
Indiana's Run Defense
The Hoosiers have faced one Big Ten running back who ranks top-five in the conference in rushing yards.
This running back is Washington's Jonah Coleman.
Without having to worry about a pass attack that is as productive as Ohio State's, Indiana conceded 104 rushing yards on 5.5 YPC to Coleman.
Against the only tough ground game that it has faced, one that has a strong running back and a pass attack that a defense needs to respect, Indiana's run defense struggled.
Ohio State's Rush Attack
The Buckeyes have two excellent running backs in Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson.
While Judkins averages over six YPC, Henderson averages 7.5 YPC.
We know that both running backs truly are excellent because they thrived against Penn State, which has one of the nation's best run defenses, largely because it is stacked with proven defensive tackles who are expected to play in the NFL.
Against this undeniably very talented, high-ranking run defense, both Ohio State running backs averaged well over five YPC.
Indiana's Pass Defense
So far, the best pass attack that Indiana has faced is Maryland's.
The Terrapins have the Big Ten's third-leading passer and the conference's leading wide receiver.
Against Indiana, Maryland scored 28 points largely because quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. threw for close to 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Indiana's pass defense looks good because it allows an average of fewer than 200 passing yards per game.
But when it faced a very talented pass attack, that pass attack exposed the meaninglessness of Indiana's pass defense ranking.
Ohio State's Pass Attack
The Buckeyes pass attack is stacked because it features two wide receivers who rank top-ten in the Big Ten in receiving yards.
Jeremiah Smith is too young to be drafted next year, but there is already speculation that he'll be a top-five draft pick.
With the season still in progress, he already owns the program record for most receiving yards by a freshman.
Fellow wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is likewise expected to be drafted in the first round.
Like Smith, he proves very tough for even solid cornerbacks to cover.
Iowa's secondary, for example, features cornerback Jermari Harris, but the Buckeyes still dropped 35 points largely by leaning on Smith and Egbuka.
Smith, for example, beat Harris for a 53-yard reception.
Ohio State's Will Howard is a quarterback who is also able, on a consistent basis, to deliver accurate passes to his playmakers.
He does have it easy because he can trust his wide receivers to win one-on-one battles, but he deserves credit for completing 74 percent of his passes and throwing 22 touchdowns to five interceptions.
Indiana's Rush Attack
Indiana's offense is strong when it's balanced.
As evident in its last game, when Kurtis Rourke struggled to move the ball against a Michigan defense that was missing its elite cornerback, Indiana will have trouble sustaining drives when its quarterback has to carry his offense
Rourke had to try to carry the Hoosiers because their rush attack was stifled by Michigan.
Heading into the season, PFF ranked Michigan as having the second-best defensive line.
It is undoubtedly a talented group, so we see what happens to Indiana's rush attack when it encounters such a talented defensive line.
Ohio State's Defensive Line
While PFF ranked Michigan's defensive line as number two, it ranked Ohio State's as number one.
The Buckeyes have demonstrated the talent on their defensive line by stymying rush attack after rush attack.
They faced, for example, the Big Ten's leading rusher.
While Iowa's Kaleb Johnson did finish the game with a nice-looking stat line, he did his damage when the game was already decided.
In the first half, Ohio State held him to 19 rushing yards on eight attempts.
Two defensive linemen to watch out for are Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton.
Both Buckeyes run-stuffers have bright futures in the NFL. Video footage displays their strength, power, and explosiveness.
Indiana's rush attack is already declining — it already struggled the week before against Michigan State.
Moreover, valued run-blocker Drew Evans has sustained a season-ending injury. Tyler Stephens, his replacement, graded poorly against the run last week.
Outlook for Ohio State's Elite Pass Defense
Indiana's quarterback Rourke has not faced a pass defense remotely as difficult as Ohio State's.
He suffered his lowest passer rating of the season against a Michigan defense missing its top cornerback.
Against Ohio State, he will lack run support as he did against Michigan, and the Buckeyes have the fourth-best pass defense in the nation thanks to cornerbacks like Denzel Burke, an All-Big Ten First Team selection last year who could be taken in the first round of the next NFL Draft.
As evident in its most recent games, in which it has held quarterbacks to low passer ratings — Penn State's Drew Allar, for example, had his worst game of his season against Ohio State — the Buckeyes' pass defense keeps getting better.
Their ability to sack opposing quarterbacks at a high rate complements their strong coverage abilities.
As evident in their game against Penn State, they'll pressure quarterbacks to throw earlier then they want to, to wide receivers who will not win their one-on-one battle. They'll also often force check-downs, so that the opposing offense gets at most a couple of yards per play.
Takeaway
We have seen teams like Maryland score 28 points against Indiana because it has a strong pass attack.
Ohio State has a stacked pass attack supported by an elite ground game.
We have also seen Indiana struggle to score against Michigan because it has a very talented defensive line.
Ohio State has a high-caliber rush defense that is complemented by a top-level pass defense.
Logically, we should expect Ohio State to exceed 30 points and Indiana to struggle to reach double digits.
I foresee Ohio State winning by over two touchdowns if the Buckeyes play with their usual prolonged stretches of laxity.
The Hoosiers are undefeated and ranked number five, though, so Ohio State will take them seriously.
Sometimes, the Buckeyes fail to take underdogs seriously and fall behind, as they did against Northwestern, although they still manage to rally and win in blowout fashion because they are so talented.
Given the hype surrounding this game, we will see a Buckeyes team that is focused from the beginning.
Indiana is going to get blown out.
Best Bet: Buckeyes ATS
