NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Indiana Pacers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, January 4, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans
Indiana’s Offensive Style
When Indiana is at its best, it runs its offense through big man Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis loves to receive the ball on the elbow. Individually, he’ll post up and back his man down in the post.
But he also counts as a determined team player and facilitator.
He’ll attract attention from other defenders in order to locate and pass to open players.
Furthermore, Sabonis will set screens and facilitate scoring that way.
Because he encourages teammates to get open and finds them well, Indiana wants to maximize its scoring by having good shooters who can knock down open three-pointers.
But the problem is that Indiana only ranks 20th in three-point percentage.
Missing TJ
In this respect, losing TJ Warren is a big deal. He had converted over 40 percent of his three-point attempts in each of his last two seasons.
He also benefitted from ball-screens set by guys like Sabonis. Warren isn’t so much someone who wants to attack the rim. Instead of driving, he’d rather pull up for a jumper especially from mid-range.
Without Warren, Aaron Holiday has had to step up. But despite receiving extended minutes, he is averaging six points in two games without Warren.
Leaning On Brogdon
In Indiana’s most recent game, against the Knicks, point guard Malcolm Brogdon played a huge role in trying to generate offense.
But Brogdon can only do so much by himself. He was unable to guide Indiana when it mattered most, down the stretch, to a win.
Leaning on Brodgon will be particularly problematic for Indiana because of Brogdon’s match-up tonight.
Pelican point guard Lonzo Ball has cultivated a positive reputation for his strong defense.
Off the ball, Ball is effective as someone who accrues a lot of steals. Right now, he’s accruing 1.5 steals per game overall and 2.5 at home.
While he’s active off the ball, he still ably recovers back to his man. He’ll contain his opponent’s drive while also contesting his jump shot.
In recent years, he’s finished in a high percentile among defenders against screen actions and pull-up jumpers.
His high motor allows him to navigate the variety of screen actions that teams like Indiana will employ.
Leaning On Sabonis
When not facilitating for others, Sabonis wants to score down low.
He’ll attack the rim off a screen. He’ll also try to finesse his way, by himself, to a basket.
But the Pelican defense has changed this year to become more determined to limit opponents in the paint.
While Ball gets credit for his defense, big men like Steven Adams with his physicality are important too.
They help explain why the Pelicans rank second-best in limiting opposing points in the paint.
Pelican Offense vs. Pacer Defense
Unlike the Pelicans, Indiana has done and continues to do a poor job of protecting the paint.
This softness inside hurts Indiana. It certainly helped cost the Pacers in their last game in which the Knicks outscored them significantly in the paint and won.
Indiana was exposed nationally in its playoff series with Miami. The Pacers lack physicality in their interior defense and they lack strong rim protection.
Offensively, the Pelicans will have an advantage inside with their physicality. They feature Zion Williamson, who’s averaging 19.7 points per game.
They also feature Steven Adams, who averages close to a double-double per game. He’s known as the NBA’s strongest man.
Both players also bring their physicality to the glass. Whereas the Pacers rank 28th in total rebounds, the Pelicans rank second in the category.
So while Pacer backers cite the Pelicans’ relative lack of efficiency in certain scoring departments like inside scoring, New Orleans makes up for its lack of efficiency by creating second-chance scoring opportunities.
Side Verdict
Especially without Warren, Indiana lacks the shooting prowess to maximize Sabonis’ facilitating activity in the elbow.
Brogdon will continue to struggle to step up sufficiently especially while being guarded by Lonzo Ball.
On both sides of the court, New Orleans’ advantage inside with its physicality will be decisive as it accrues second-chance points and otherwise dominates in the paint.
Total Verdict
For Indiana, the under is 2-0 since Warren’s injury as the Pacers are having trouble replacing him because of the multi-dimensional role — as a three-point shooter and taker of mid-range jump-shots — that he had played in the offense.
Scoring-wise, New Orleans won’t go too crazy because it’s ball-screen game isn’t very efficient and because Brogdon is also a characteristically great defender himself.
Best Bet: Pelicans ML at -117 & Under 218.5 at -110 at +254 odds with BetOnline
Indiana Pacers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Monday, January 4, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans
Indiana’s Offensive Style
When Indiana is at its best, it runs its offense through big man Domantas Sabonis.
Sabonis loves to receive the ball on the elbow. Individually, he’ll post up and back his man down in the post.
But he also counts as a determined team player and facilitator.
He’ll attract attention from other defenders in order to locate and pass to open players.
Furthermore, Sabonis will set screens and facilitate scoring that way.
Because he encourages teammates to get open and finds them well, Indiana wants to maximize its scoring by having good shooters who can knock down open three-pointers.
But the problem is that Indiana only ranks 20th in three-point percentage.
Missing TJ
In this respect, losing TJ Warren is a big deal. He had converted over 40 percent of his three-point attempts in each of his last two seasons.
He also benefitted from ball-screens set by guys like Sabonis. Warren isn’t so much someone who wants to attack the rim. Instead of driving, he’d rather pull up for a jumper especially from mid-range.
Without Warren, Aaron Holiday has had to step up. But despite receiving extended minutes, he is averaging six points in two games without Warren.
Leaning On Brogdon
In Indiana’s most recent game, against the Knicks, point guard Malcolm Brogdon played a huge role in trying to generate offense.
But Brogdon can only do so much by himself. He was unable to guide Indiana when it mattered most, down the stretch, to a win.
Leaning on Brodgon will be particularly problematic for Indiana because of Brogdon’s match-up tonight.
Pelican point guard Lonzo Ball has cultivated a positive reputation for his strong defense.
Off the ball, Ball is effective as someone who accrues a lot of steals. Right now, he’s accruing 1.5 steals per game overall and 2.5 at home.
While he’s active off the ball, he still ably recovers back to his man. He’ll contain his opponent’s drive while also contesting his jump shot.
In recent years, he’s finished in a high percentile among defenders against screen actions and pull-up jumpers.
His high motor allows him to navigate the variety of screen actions that teams like Indiana will employ.
Leaning On Sabonis
When not facilitating for others, Sabonis wants to score down low.
He’ll attack the rim off a screen. He’ll also try to finesse his way, by himself, to a basket.
But the Pelican defense has changed this year to become more determined to limit opponents in the paint.
While Ball gets credit for his defense, big men like Steven Adams with his physicality are important too.
They help explain why the Pelicans rank second-best in limiting opposing points in the paint.
Pelican Offense vs. Pacer Defense
Unlike the Pelicans, Indiana has done and continues to do a poor job of protecting the paint.
This softness inside hurts Indiana. It certainly helped cost the Pacers in their last game in which the Knicks outscored them significantly in the paint and won.
Indiana was exposed nationally in its playoff series with Miami. The Pacers lack physicality in their interior defense and they lack strong rim protection.
Offensively, the Pelicans will have an advantage inside with their physicality. They feature Zion Williamson, who’s averaging 19.7 points per game.
They also feature Steven Adams, who averages close to a double-double per game. He’s known as the NBA’s strongest man.
Both players also bring their physicality to the glass. Whereas the Pacers rank 28th in total rebounds, the Pelicans rank second in the category.
So while Pacer backers cite the Pelicans’ relative lack of efficiency in certain scoring departments like inside scoring, New Orleans makes up for its lack of efficiency by creating second-chance scoring opportunities.
Side Verdict
Especially without Warren, Indiana lacks the shooting prowess to maximize Sabonis’ facilitating activity in the elbow.
Brogdon will continue to struggle to step up sufficiently especially while being guarded by Lonzo Ball.
On both sides of the court, New Orleans’ advantage inside with its physicality will be decisive as it accrues second-chance points and otherwise dominates in the paint.
Total Verdict
For Indiana, the under is 2-0 since Warren’s injury as the Pacers are having trouble replacing him because of the multi-dimensional role — as a three-point shooter and taker of mid-range jump-shots — that he had played in the offense.
Scoring-wise, New Orleans won’t go too crazy because it’s ball-screen game isn’t very efficient and because Brogdon is also a characteristically great defender himself.
Best Bet: Pelicans ML at -117 & Under 218.5 at -110 at +254 odds with BetOnline
