Independence Picks

[E.T.G.]

Happy 4th to all, be safe and don't drink and drive...smoke and fly

Just a lean right now.

Braves +105:

There is some good information already on the site about this game in Satyr, Trouts, and the discussion thread. I just have a few things to add here..I didn't like the Braves in either of the first two games and they lost. This is their 3rd day out West, the jetlag and whatever else should be gone by now. This is also an important game for a team who prior to making this trip out West was seeing their fortunes turn around. Nothing worse than to catch a little fire and than travel across country to have it put out. Braves are losers of 4 in a row now but prior to that put together a nice little 5 game winning streak. Hendrickson is just not in the position to step up against the Braves today. This is his first start since 5/31 and its only happening because Kuo couldn't get a tee-ball team out so they demoted him. I will admit, out of the bullpen he hasn't pitched bad in June and actually besides 1 outting has been pretty good but starting is a different game. Maybe he doesn't have the endurance and arm strength to be a starter since when he was he was only worked into the 5th inning and less. He had 2 starts of 6 or more innings. I think maybe long relief is a better fit for him..Chuck James has pitched really well going back almost 12 starts if you take out one bad inning vs. Detroit and the game vs. Minnesota than he hasn't given up more than 3er since 4/27. Both of those starts have come in his last 4 games pitched so its time for him to get back on track, I don't think that is a sign of anything to come. Now there are some things in this game I don't like. If it becomes a battle of bullpens, the Dodgers win. The Dodgers are a better team with a strong bat like Loney in the lineup. Nomar moving over the 3B gives this team a better offense and defense, no doubt about it. Kemp is hot as well and did this same shit last yr but he is dangerous when he is hot though. Both teams have hit LHP pretty well in their L10 but the Braves have faced a lot of LHP this yr and typically are not as good vs. them where as the Dodgers are better.


Padres -1.5 -110:

I can be real short here. Chris Young at home. The bad part for me here is that 1) I hate RL's and 2) I hate paying juice on the RL

 

[reNew Orleans]

Happy 4th to all, be safe and don't drink and drive...smoke and fly

Just a lean right now.

Braves +105:

There is some good information already on the site about this game in Satyr, Trouts, and the discussion thread. I just have a few things to ass here..I didn't like the Braves in either of the first two games and they lost. This is their 3rd day out West, the jetlag and whatever else should be gone by now. This is also an important game for a team who prior to making this trip out West was seeing their fortunes turn around. Nothing worse than to catch a little fire and than travel across country to have it put out. Braves are losers of 4 in a row now but prior to that put together a nice little 5 game winning streak. Hendrickson is just not in the position to step up against the Braves today. This is his first start since 5/31 and its only happening because Kuo couldn't get a tee-ball team out so they demoted him. I will admit, out of the bullpen he hasn't pitched bad in June and actually besides 1 outting has been pretty good but starting is a different game. Maybe he doesn't have the endurance and arm strength to be a starter since when he was he was only worked into the 5th inning and less. He had 2 starts of 6 or more innings. I think maybe long relief is a better fit for him..Chuck James has pitched really well going back almost 12 starts if you take out one bad inning vs. Detroit and the game vs. Minnesota than he hasn't given up more than 3er since 4/27. Both of those starts have come in his last 4 games pitched so its time for him to get back on track, I don't think that is a sign of anything to come. Now there are some things in this game I don't like. If it becomes a battle of bullpens, the Dodgers win. The Dodgers are a better team with a strong bat like Loney in the lineup. Nomar moving over the 3B gives this team a better offense and defense, no doubt about it. Kemp is hot as well and did this same shit last yr but he is dangerous when he is hot though. Both teams have hit LHP pretty well in their L10 but the Braves have faced a lot of LHP this yr and typically are not as good vs. them where as the Dodgers are better.


Padres -1.5 -110:

I can be real short here. Chris Young at home. The bad part for me here is that 1) I hate RL's and 2) I hate paying juice on the RL

my thing about the braves is they beat up on shitty teams and then turn around and lose to good teams.

 

[tee*dub]

Chris Young at home.:smiley_acbe:


GL today.. I never drink and drive. Afraid I might spill some..

 

[E.T.G.]

Renew -hah fixed that shit, I was hungover typing it up and i was looking at my avatar.

Tee - 0.94era in that park is pretty tough to go against.


I have been thinking about these two games and kind of don't know how I want to attack the Padres. I could make a -1 line and get Padres -1 (-165) or I can bite the bullet and play the RL. I really just hate runlines and the Padres are hitting under .200 in their last 10 vs. RHP. Josh Johnson is sort of like what the fuck as well. He isn't 10.97era bad but he is having trouble with his control. If he stops walking guys than he could prob go 5innings of 1-2run baseball. Padres no doubt have bullpen advantage here.

As far as Chucky, I mean I just feel they should win this game and he pitches alright. Line is dropping though and right now is +100

 

[Troutman]

BRAVOS:smiley_acbe:

 

[E.T.G.]

I've debated this Braves game back and forth in my head many times for the last 2hours. Here are my problems with the play. Today the Dodgers are asking Hendrickson to simply pitch 4-5 innings. They are fine with taking this game to their bullpen so he will be limited to around 75pitches. The Dodgers going to their bullpen here is a good thing for them and bad for the Braves. If the Braves don't beat Hendrickson up, I am starting to feel its likely they lose this game. Braves just don't hit LHP that well and if he escapes with 2runs after 5innings that is a success for him and the Dodgers. James isn't going to shut the Dodgers out but he isn't going to get rocked either. I think like 6-7ip w/ 3er. This is going to be a tight game and the Dodger just have to much of an advantage with their pen. I also just don't trust the Braves that much (sorry Trout). ReNew makes a good point that they beat the bad teams (FL, Wash) and lose to the good ones (Detroit, Bos) and now LAD.. Tomorrow will be another tough game for the Braves as well having to face Penny even though they get Hudson on the mound they just are outmatched late in the ball games.


Now onto the Padres game. I have been going back and forth here as well. I don't think the Marlins beat the Padres. Its the fact of how many runs the Padres score today. Do they win this game 3-1, 2-0, 1-0 or do they blow them out. Johnson has a terrible era but he is a better pitcher than that, no doubt in my mind. He was 6-3 w/ 2.98 on the road last yr so he def has some goods but his control is off right now and thats because he is just getting into the swing of things. In a few more starts he could have some value as a decent dog since his era/record will look terrible on paper. I just don't trust the Padres offense much.

At this point right now, I am off the Braves game. I will decide on the Padres game in a little bit. I woke up today hungover and didn't even have intentions of betting so I am not going to push it today.

 

[joebrensports]

Look for Johnson to pitch well, but lose. Young fighting for fan votes for the all star game. I will never lay 220, but can't lay the RL either in this contest.

 

[STEED]

gl w/ these late ones bud

 

[E.T.G.]

Look for Johnson to pitch well, but lose. Young fighting for fan votes for the all star game. I will never lay 220, but can't lay the RL either in this contest.

Those are pretty much my thoughts. I just can't justify in my head paying that much on the ml and the Padres are not an ideal RL team.

Johnson is not as bad as his numbers indicate and I would hate to be a victim of his first good start of the yr. On the other hand, Young has given up 5er in 48+ innings at home, thats like as close to automatic as you can get.



Overall, I made the decision to not play anything today. Pretty much a waste of a thread at this point gonna try to find some games for tomorrow.


Good Luck to every1 in the late games :cheers:

 

[reNew Orleans]

even if johnson pitches well I cant see him going more than 6, 3 innings of florida bullpen is still hell for them

 

[Troutman]

At this point right now, I am off the Braves game. I will decide on the Padres game in a little bit. I woke up today hungover and didn't even have intentions of betting so I am not going to push it today.

This makes my heart hurt:down:....Im telling you that this is a game where the braves are going to show up, they are getting a relief pitcher that after 3 innings is a proven Liability, they also hate the dodgers and are trying to finish well before the all star break. The Braves are also going to Miss Smoltz on saturday so they understand the importance of this game, They will not get swept and today is their best chance at procurring a victory.

:cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

even if johnson pitches well I cant see him going more than 6, 3 innings of florida bullpen is still hell for them

I think the Florida defense is worse and bigger concern than their bullpen and Hanley being questionable certainly doesn't help them as a team. Florida bullpen isn't that bad though and somewhere around the middle in the MLB.

It comes down to confidence in these picks. Yesterday I was really confident in Blanton and the A's winning that game. Yea they only won 3-1 and if not for a homer in the 8th than I pushed the -1 line but the play won and so all of that is not important. I just don't have the same feelings on these two games. If the Padres had a better and more consistent offense than I would play the RL with no worries but that offense doesn't do it for me and so on a day I didn't plan to bet in would prob be better to sit out then force, I have learned that the hard way. On to the games for Thursday.

 

[GrandPa]

It IS difiicult to concentrate with that avatar staring me in the face