Important LESSON to be Learned Tonight

[Sammy Meatballs]

The situation that presented itself tonight occurs frequently throughout the season and is killing unsuspected bettors and I believe I have the reason.

NEW ENGLAND laying 19 points at baltimore.(A spread unheard of in NFL)

I for one lost on this game, but there is a reason why so many bet on New England tonight, it is human nature.

We as bettors feel confident and assured if we have the better, more powerful, prolific team vs a weaker, lesser talented team.

2 scenarios happen to us!

We bet and lose on New England- We feel bad, but we realize we had the better team and know we made a mistake.
Question- When another similar game like this presents itself what will we do? I know we will bet the New England team laying points again? Why will we not learn from this mistake?

Reason is simple- When we lose on Baltimore, just like everyone lost on the BILLS the loss hurts 10 times more, because you got embarassed and scored on repeatedly. AM i right or wrong when saying after someone bet the Bills it probably ruined the rest of their night.

It is almost that you feel better losing on a favorite than an underdog that gets blown out. Why is this? I will tell you why.

We are betting to win games, we love offence, public loves TD's, we love scoring, no one says oh well i have a lock +14, we are going to win 13-10. if you had huge money on a game correct me if I am wrong, most bettors would take a favorite and not an underdog? Prove my point I saw the most GOY's last week on the PATS vs the EAGLES.

Taking the favorite in these situations is like dating a hot woman. You know it is not a smart move, because she may cheat on you and will be looking for attention from other men. IF this hot woman cheats on you, you would rationalize and say oh well she was hot and I knew it she would cheat on me.

If a woman not so hot cheated on you, I think a guy would feel 10 times worse because she is not hot and he never saw it coming.

Situations like this tonight happen all the time in college, and the team getting points can win the game.


Lesson to be Learned- To cover huge spreads like this in NFL, everything has to go perfect for you. I think when a game like this presents itself it has everyone thinking that the PATS are invincible. Just when everyone thinks a team is invincible it falls. Never fails, there was a time that the Pats were peaking, now they are regressing.

Remember the line that Vegas puts out there means nothing to the actual outcome of the game. I have found that the blowouts happen on lower spreads and the huge huge spreads are the close games?

EX- Biggest spread- Pats -22, was a 3 pt game
Pats -19 3 point game- should have lost
Pitts -16 3 point game

These results right here should tell us something very valuable.

The point is that I am not going to be afraid anymore of taking a DOG, because the thing is I knew that I was going to lose my bet tonight on the PATS but was stubborn and did not want the feeling I got after taking the BILLS that night. I felt like punching Dick JAURON in the face. Tonight I could not take it if Ravens were losing cause I would hate to look at BILLICK on the sidelines with that clueless look on his face.

NFL teams are not the only ones who have to make adjustments. FIne we lost on this bet, but we will learn and adjust, and WIN next time when this same game presents itself very soon in NFL and in BOWL games!

 

[brewer]

when the world saw reed, ray ray and mcgahee firing up before game you knew it be a game.

great post

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

when the world saw reed, ray ray and mcgahee firing up before game you knew it be a game.

great post

I am glad someone agreed with me, I though I was having POST PATS SYNDROME!

Agreed with Lewis and them sometimes the game gets PERSONAL and that's what we saw tonight, it was Personal for the CANES tonight, which I knew but wanted the highpowered FERRARI team! We have to keep this post in the archives to remind us in the future.

Even more disturbing I only bet half of my bet on teh Ravens at halftime, where they put another silly line of -10.5 with a team that cannot stop the run or pass!

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Lesson to be Learned- To cover huge spreads like this in NFL, everything has to go perfect for you. I think when a game like this presents itself it has everyone thinking that the PATS are invincible. Just when everyone thinks a team is invincible it falls. Never fails,

Mike Tyson is a perfect example of this losing to Buster Douglas
Mirko Cro Cop to that crazy guy
Ohio state to illinios?

 

[brewer]

motivation is big. ne should have it next week.

u think the redskins are gonna be in a bad spot? losing that game on sunday, funeral monday, game thurs.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

motivation is big. ne should have it next week.

u think the redskins are gonna be in a bad spot? losing that game on sunday, funeral monday, game thurs.

Who knows what if they pull a Ray LEWIS and the players take it personal to win it for TAYLOR, then the game comes personal again.

Another thing is everyone talks about how great a team is if they score a lot of point every week, like the Colts and Pats all season.

You never hear anyone say oh man you see the Jaguars stop the run like 8 plays in a row, you see them stuff Vince Young? You see how physical the Jags are in the trenches? No one cares unless it is passing Td's, NFL is all hype now, all marketing MANNING and BRADY.

What it is important about the above statement is the Jaguars are quietly on a good Run covering the Spread and The Pats and Colts are not. Figures eh that only the smart guys would be betting the JAGS, cause they are not flashy, but is where you want your money.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

With the above info, it is clear that the NFL's outcomes are predictable if we can eliminate the hype and marketing angle. At CTG we should almost be able to predict the outcomes of most of the NFL Games every week.

Sometimes are own biases and the fact that a lot of cappers have too much knowledge is their own worst enemy" Sometimes the KISS strategy is the best, Keep it Simple Stupid- Ie Bet against Lions and Bengals on road automatically, you will win money for sure. I learned this lesson the hard way at work, where I was roughed up because I knew too much and people were feeling threatened of me.

 

[brewer]

rookie head coaches on the road is a bet against if chalk, too. see: norv (1st year at sd, tomlin at pitt $$$$)

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

rookie head coaches on the road is a bet against if chalk, too. see: norv (1st year at sd, tomlin at pitt $$$$)

True never realized that one, that it is a good one for sure as it is hitting high% this year.

Cincinatti is 1-5 on road this year vs Spread
Detroit is 2-4 on road this year vs Spread
Baltimore is 0-6 on road this year vs Spread


Why am I not suprised that Marvin LEWIS would be 1-5 or Billick would be 0-6, as I said this is all the info I need to play a bet, as 2 of my bigger bets were against Detroit on the road this year.

Vegas likes to create confusion, so many games to bet, so many totals, sports, they are hiding, they know detroit and cincy are garbage, they are giving us those every week on the road and we have to take advantage.

From an investing point of view it is clear that we can make money we just need to form a syndicate and start pooling all great minds together to find these games early in the week.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

" To win We must work SMARTER and not HARDER"

Today marks the first day that I cure my capping disease of

"Underdog Anxiety Syndrome"

From now on I am not going to be insecure about underdogs!

 

[brewer]

yards after the catch is my favorite for judging qbs. good qbs hit their wrs in stride and not lay them out to be head hunted.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

yards after the catch is my favorite for judging qbs. good qbs hit their wrs in stride and not lay them out to be head hunted.

Next week we have Cleveland laying -3.5 at Ny JETS

This may be my first step to recovery from "Underdog Anxiety syndrome"
How can I take a -3.5 point favorite with NO DEFENCE vs a well coached Jets team that can play some D?
All week in bettors mind will be Kellen WINSLOW and Braylon EDWARDS going deep, I don't care about that shit, I want RUDY on my team covering Braylon man to man, at least he has heart!

Jets it is, sometimes it is too easy, and this one is! NO D=NO ROAD COVER






And Sandiego layin -1 at Tennesse. You have the Norv Turner effect

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Jets also qualifies in another Great Meatball Classic SYSTEM:

Play against a team where it is composed of a few key contributors vs a Team with no superstars but plays team ball.

Browns are all Anderson, Braylon, Kellen, and Jamal L, can anyone name a player on the D? Jets are playing team ball and play as a team. Browns are all media hype, Big, fast, athletic, slim, great receivers, 6 foot 4, no thanks I don't want anything to do with this team.

 

[Throwback420]

"lets send sean home right,not by the outcome of the game but in how you play the game" - Ray Ray Lewis

rayer

 

[spanishshark]

" To win We must work SMARTER and not HARDER"

Today marks the first day that I cure my capping disease of

"Underdog Anxiety Syndrome"

From now on I am not going to be insecure about underdogs!

I love ya man...hehe :shake: :cheers:

 

[ISU74]

rookie head coaches on the road is a bet against if chalk, too. see: norv (1st year at sd, tomlin at pitt $$$$)

I dont think norv qualifies here as he is not a rookie HC. See SD/KC LW.

This is a great thread and that was the best NFL game this year by far. It just shows you the level of talent in this league, and how competitive it can be when both teams are playing with 100% intensity I am beginning to wonder if some of these teams are mailing it in more often than they use to during the regular season. I am predominatly a contrarian bettor and dogs seem to hitting at a lower rate than they have the last 8 years I have been at this.

 

[ghostnmyhead]

great thread as usual sammy