Im going to document a new system I'm trying in this here thread

[johnci]

I'm sure it's been tried before, and it seems to easy to work, so I will dub it the "square system."

Every day I will find the line with the greatest spread between ML and RL price, and play both, giving me the best odds on both sides. Bets will always be 1 unit. Here goes.

Today:

Colorado +152 1u
Houston -1.5 +138 1u

 

[GamblerAnonymous]

I dont understand?? What if Houston win by 1

 

[barmeezee]

yea ... interesting but it could work... but youd be nickel and diming the whole time.. 30 here 30 there

 

[GamblerAnonymous]

tough play . I usually play large 500-2000 per game . This system will not work for me. You can win 10 but u only need to loose once ur down.

 

[barmeezee]

yea really lose once and your screwed...

 

[johnci]

Size of bet does not matter, GA. If it doesn't work for you, it won't work for anyone. And the only way you would be screwed if you lost 1 out of 10 times would be if every line you played were +110 or less. The objective is to find the biggest plus money, not the least

 

[outstanding]

i did this for awhile

 

[tuck321]

It has been tried many times and some win doing it but most lose. The key is the fiters you use in selecting the games you play which is very involved. Its not something that interests me with inferior outs as most of my betting now is the Greek and 5 dimes. GL

 

[johnci]

Yesterday: 11-8 Houston, +.38u
YTD: 1-0, +.38u

Today:

Minnesota +103
Detroit -1.5 +202

 

[Blue_Chip]

over the last 3 seasons, 27.8% of all games are decided by 1 run (this percentage includes both the favorite and underdog winning by 1 run). however, 72.2% accuracy does not equal profitability because of the magnitude of losses versus the small winnings.

by accepting the biggest + money, you aren't taking the biggest spread. sure, you profit $102 if the tigers cover the rl, but you win $3 if the twins prevail; and with potential losses of $200 a game (assuming $100 units) you need better than $3 potenital profit

gl

 

[johnci]

Chip,
Do you have a spreadsheet of some sort which spits out that 27% number? If possible, I would like to know what % of games with the total set at 10 and 11 are decided by 1 run. I wonder if it is a lower number, in which case maybe I should refine the square system to only include such plays. Todays Tigers/Twins line is pretty low, so a closer game can be expected, I think.

 

[Blue_Chip]

i don't have the spreadsheet. my computer-genius friend that backtested it lost everything in katrina

 

[johnci]

fair enough, thanks anyhow.

 

[johnci]

Friday:

7-2 Minnesota, +.03u
YTD: 2-0 +.41u

Sunday:

MIL +108
CHC +186

Each 1 unit. GLTA

 

[johnci]

YTD: 3-0 +1.27u

Today:

FLA +224
SD -1.5 -101

GLTA

 

[johnci]

YTD: 4-0 +2.51u

Today:

CHW +122
BAL -1.5 +174

 

[ClevelandsBest]

I am trying to understand this. If you Baltimore wins by 1 today then you lose 2 units? That would make you 4-1 +51? I won't try to take over the thread but baseball is about getting value over the long haul and this system is not allowing that for you. You will have to win 80-85% of your games just to profit. Best of luck if you try it

 

[rolub]

baseball is about getting value over the long haul and this system is not allowing that for you. You will have to win 80-85% of your games just to profit.

the difference is, he's not betting on a 50/50 outcome, that is, there are two teams, one will win and one will lose. he's betting that the team marked the favorite by the oddsmakers will not win by 1 run.

i still question the 27.8% number of games ending in 1 run. I've seen percentages as low as 16%, yet have not seen anywhere actual documentation of it.

:cheers:

 

[johnci]

Last time:
CHW 9 BAL 7
+.22u

YTD: 5-0 + 2.73u

Today:
TEX +200
LAA -1.5 +104

 

[johnci]

Last time:
LAA 9 TEX 5
+.04u

YTD: 6-0 +2.77u

Today:

NYM +105
SD -1.5 +197

 

[johnci]

Last time:
SD 5 NYM 1 +.97u
YTD: 7-0 +3.74u

Today:

DET +186
MIN -1.5 +119

 

[johnci]

Last time:
DET 3 MIN 2 +.86u

YTD: 8-0 4.6u

Tonight:

TB +232
NYY -1.5 -115

Boy do I hate this play. I don't see how this one can turn out good.

 

[johnci]

Last time: TB 14 NYY 4 +1.32u

YTD: 9-0 +5.92u

Today:
PHI +198
SD -1.5 +115

 

[johnci]

Last time: PHI 9 SD 0
YTD: 10-0 +6.9u
Today:
MIL +119
CIN -1.5 +180

 

[johnci]

Last time: CIN 2 MIL 1 -2u
YTD: 10-2 +4.9u
Today:
FLA -105
ARI -1.5 +210