If you were to try and hedge this, how would you do it?

[luckythirteen]

This is not the result of a parlay but a series of If-Win wagers that started out with a 49ers -4 bet that morphed into a bunch of other CBB winners and here is what I am now faced with and I'd like to try and figure out if I should hedge this bet or just let it roll. My initial bet was $208.00 on the niners. If the number lands exactly on 4, I get my $208 back and that is it. If they cover, well you know what happens as you see below. Based on the current line, the only safe way to hedge this appears to be a +4.5 bet on Balty if I am going to throw down $2500 or $3000 on them considering I only risked a small amount initially without risking middling myself.

[TABLE="width: 962"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]208.00
[/TD]
[TD]5,480.24
[/TD]
[TD]

Basketball - 544 Iowa State -4 -110 for Game (win)
Basketball - 596 Arizona State +2½ -105 for Game (win)
Basketball - 644 NC State -5 -105 for Game (win)
Basketball - 521 Syracuse/Villanova under 64 -110 for 1st Half (win)
Football - 102 San Francisco 49ers -4 -103 for Game
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[luckythirteen]

Obviously, the only way I get a +4.5 is if the line comes back to me or I pay for it in juice which is likely not worth it. Open to ideas.

 

[Lareux]

I would put 1500 or so on Balty +4.5 if it were my money. Either win 1292 if Balty covers (1500 if it lands on 4), or win 3830 if SF covers the 4 pts. A lot of guys will say to just ride it out, but locking in a nice profit either way is a good decision imo.

You could also put 2700 on Balty +4.5 (2970 at -110) and lock in a 2500 profit regardless of the game outcome. (If the game landed on 4 you would win 2700)

Nice situation to be in, good luck with whatever you decide!

:shake:

 

[luckythirteen]

the only thing is.........+4.5 right now is -139

 

[B.A.R.]

paging vanzack...

 

[xyzky]

the only thing is.........+4.5 right now is -139

I'm pretty sure the number will come back...

 

[luckythirteen]

I'm pretty sure the number will come back...

I have a feeling it will too. At least to a point where i don't have to pay that kind of juice. If I do hedge, it is not going to be for an even split as I want some action on this game and I do like San Francisco. I guess one other option is to see how the first half plays out and make a 2nd half bet if it presents itself.

 

[Lexington 125]

I guess one other option is to see how the first half plays out and make a 2nd half bet if it presents itself.

Always an option I look at, but that is scary here considering the way SF has been dominated 1sth by the opposing team. You may never get another good line for Balty once the kickoff happens....

 

[Lareux]

the only thing is.........+4.5 right now is -139

Yeah, that obviously changes the math a great deal, and you will be unable to lock in $2500 regardless of outcome. Hopefully for you, it comes back down a bit and you can do as you wish.

 

[luckythirteen]

Well, I can now get +4.5 -118 .......not sure yet what I am going to do but also not sure if it will get a whole lot better than this if I do decide to hedge

 

[Lareux]

Well, I can now get +4.5 -118 .......not sure yet what I am going to do but also not sure if it will get a whole lot better than this if I do decide to hedge

$2600 on Balt +4.5 will get you $2392 if Balt covers ($2600-$208), or $2412 if SF covers the 4.5 ($5480-$3068), and $2600 if SF wins by 4. Not sure this is the route you're leaning towards, as you've said you want action on the game, but $2600 on Balt will get you the even split (betting $2609 will get you the true split, with $2401 profit regardless of outcome).

 

[luckythirteen]

I don't think you are figuring in the juice in your calculations because if I bet 2609, I have to lay -118 and then after that i still have to minus out the 208

 

[Lareux]

I don't think you are figuring in the juice in your calculations because if I bet 2609, I have to lay -118 and then after that i still have to minus out the 208

Right. I'm pretty sure (99%) I have it correct.

You lay $3079 to win $2609. If Balt covers you win $2609 minus the $208 lost on the parlay....leaves you with $2401.

If SF covers, you win $5480 from the parlay minus the $3079 you laid on Balt....leaves you with $2401.

:shake:

 

[luckythirteen]

shoot. i didnt think i would have to lay a full 3k to get an even break............i was thinking about $2500........

i am leaning to putting about $1500 on the ravens to guarantee some sort of a payout and still rooting for the niners to cover for a larger payday

 

[Lareux]

shoot. i didnt think i would have to lay a full 3k to get an even break............i was thinking about $2500........

i am leaning to putting about $1500 on the ravens to guarantee some sort of a payout and still rooting for the niners to cover for a larger payday

If you lay $1770 on Ravens to win $1500, you either win $1292 if Balt covers or $3710 if SF covers.

I like the idea of laying $2478 to win $2100 on Balt. This way, you win $1892 if Balt covers or $3002 if SF wins. Basically you have an $1100 bet on SF for the Super Bowl but guarantee yourself to win at least $1900. Gives you the action you're looking for on SF, while making sure you walk away with almost 2k regardless of the winner.

 

[twinkie13]

let it rideeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee






































:boxing: