Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
Any other championship team options? The only other 3 with a remote shot I think would be Ole Miss, Bama or Texas.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
If not Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia then who?
- Thread starter Loves2kickass
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Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
Ole Miss has to travel to Death Valley but they get Georgia at home. Their schedule looks pretty favorable.
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
Georgia has 3 tough road games
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I just threw them out there, I've put zero thought into CFB and probably won't until September but they seem like a big picture type if I was a futures player. All I've got. Can't see anyone from the B12 stepping up nor anyone outside B10 or SEC so I'd focus on the ACC. Maybe even Miami.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I seriously don't even know how the postseason works at this point. 12 teams I believe?
Let's assume 7 from SEC/Big ten, think any more than that would really ruin the sport but it could happen
Then 2 ACC and a token 1 from the Big 12, the obvious non power team and a wild card which could well be ND
Are any of these home games? I checked out so badly I don't know how it works. I'm in on the top two ACC teams if it plays out that way
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
So one playoff game on campus then the rest are bowls? I'm so confused with that. 12 teams so the top 4 have a bye? Then bowl games?
Man I love soccer
How the College Football Playoff works
This is the new format and how teams are picked for the College Football Playoff, where semifinals rotate among the Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach, Rose and Sugar Bowls.
www.ncaa.com
brewers888
Chicken Little
Miami has Cristobal as coach so surely they will be in the championship mix.
brewers888
Chicken Little
I'd be quite concerned that Michigan without Harbaugh and a first time coach could fall flat.
brewers888
Chicken Little
brewers888
Chicken Little
Depending on what they get out of the QB I agree that FSU has a chance. The conference is trash and Clemson hasn't been the same the last few years. No reason why FSU shouldn't dominate the ACC.
Possible.
Defense is damn good.
Offense is just about that QB spot, otherwise very well set everywhere.
brewers888
Chicken Little
I don't think anyone should have Michigan as their first head coaching job. Its too big of a job for most to handle and for a first time guy I think its a nearly impossible task especially following someone like Harbaugh.
Right, that's what everyone says. We'll see.
Running the gauntlet in November of 2023 gives me confidence. It's basically the same style, he's actually been the play caller the last few years. You're not going to need to do much on offense with this defense if they stay healthy. Just saying if they beat Texas those odds go from +3000 to +1000
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Since I’ve been alive I haven’t looked more forward to a college football season than this one. Every single week there will be games with playoff implications in every conference. Even the smaller conferences could produce an undefeated team making a run for the 12th spot.
Agreed, this should be fun.
longshotsws
Active Member
Given a number 5-12 seed would need to win 4 straight games to win the championship, I think the value you're looking for is trying to find an unnamed top 4 team that gets the bye. By definition, Oregon AND Ohio State cannot both be top 4 seeds.
To be clear, I'm just brainstorming dark horses for value. I think Ohio State wins it overall.
And if you want a dark horse, consider the ACC / Big 12.
The Big 12 winner should get a top four seed, Utah or Kansas St?
The ACC winner should get a top four seed. If you want an unnamed dark horse, Miami and NCST have favorable schedules.
The SEC winner will get a top four seed. Look for teams with favorable schedules... Texas has been named. Missouri could end up in the SECCG given their schedule.
I think the B10 is a toss up between Ohio State and Oregon so I don't see any other teams there that fit.
To be clear, I'm just brainstorming dark horses for value. I think Ohio State wins it overall.
And if you want a dark horse, consider the ACC / Big 12.
The Big 12 winner should get a top four seed, Utah or Kansas St?
The ACC winner should get a top four seed. If you want an unnamed dark horse, Miami and NCST have favorable schedules.
The SEC winner will get a top four seed. Look for teams with favorable schedules... Texas has been named. Missouri could end up in the SECCG given their schedule.
I think the B10 is a toss up between Ohio State and Oregon so I don't see any other teams there that fit.
Oregon should beat Ohio St at home.
OSU schedule sets up for 0-2 losses total. They have the 3 game season (as far as playoff seeding).
Oregon season starts in reality on Oct 12. I'm not discounting Boise but that should be nothing more than an early scare. Two Midwest trips in November are the only other thing to navigate.
Ohio State and Oregon have the easiest path to the cfp but Oregon gets The buckeyes at home. The loser will be worth a future but I don't think the odds will change much personally.
Bucks also go to Penn State but they seem to always win there. Then they have Michigan at home which is probably a win.
Oregon has Ohio State at home and Michigan on road as the most difficult.
Bucks also go to Penn State but they seem to always win there. Then they have Michigan at home which is probably a win.
Oregon has Ohio State at home and Michigan on road as the most difficult.
The big question marks are USC and Oklahoma. Teams with talent but defense is always a concern. Expecting their QBs to be good by mid season. USC QB is solid, they have the DC from UCLA which is a huge upgrade.
Clemson, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame can be thrown in the mix as well. All about QB play there as they have the defenses. I personally think Riley Leonard is solid and can be good for ND. I'm also expecting Allar and Klubnik to make leaps with their experience.
Clemson, Michigan, Penn State, and Notre Dame can be thrown in the mix as well. All about QB play there as they have the defenses. I personally think Riley Leonard is solid and can be good for ND. I'm also expecting Allar and Klubnik to make leaps with their experience.
brewers888
Chicken Little
I feel like Clemson is no longer elite.
Definitely been that way it seems like for sure. They don't really have a great NIL plan which is shocking to me.
longshotsws
Active Member
I think it’s tough to back Notre Dame at this price.
No matter what they do in the regular season, they must win four playoff games since they cannot earn a 1-4 seed. I know this is oversimplified but four coin flips should be +1500. I see them at +1800 for Natty per fan duel. And they’re hardly a lock to make the playoffs at -170.
No matter what they do in the regular season, they must win four playoff games since they cannot earn a 1-4 seed. I know this is oversimplified but four coin flips should be +1500. I see them at +1800 for Natty per fan duel. And they’re hardly a lock to make the playoffs at -170.
brewers888
Chicken Little
Dabo doesn't want to deal with it which I understand but do you really have a choice in this environment.
Good points. Will be tough. Might not even win game 1.
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
An unnamed team won't be able to get a bye with this format.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Plenty of reasons, one of which is their QB who was a big part of why their competitor was “trash” in 21 and 22. And Clemson was the better team except for turnovers and missed FGs last year.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Actually, they have a perfectly good plan, for retaining players. Dabo wont tamper, or promise starting spots, or use money to get transfers, however.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I would add that they may shit the bed in the opener against Tech. Teams that get blown out like that to end the season usually fail in the opener the next year. TCU losing straight up as -22 last year (off the 65-7 playoff loss to UGA) is a prime example. Pun intended.
Teapot9
Dr. Van Nostrand‘s Dermatological Assistant
Why not Kansas? Look at their schedule. Plus, JD6 is coming back, they’re playing at Arrowhead this season in KC which will be an insane environment, think LSU on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge but filled with Jayhawk fans, that K State game is always a toss up.
Michigan is the same way. Great at retaining, that's it... So far.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
So far, so good.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I think there are more question marks for the top teams this season than most. So I think we could see a pretty wide dispersion of teams that could win their conference or make the playoffs as an at-large, but I do think the number of teams that are capable of winning 3-4 straight games against quality competition is fairly small, at least from a roster standpoint. I can come up with some pretty good question marks on the top teams. Doesn't mean they won't be good or great, but I think there's value to be found in a lot of places.
UGA - I guess I trust them the most, but this will be by far the toughest schedule they've had in the Kirby era. I know they reload, but they have lost a ton over the last 3 seasons, especially on defense. On one hand, I think the tougher schedule will help them, because they won't be as surprised when they meet an equal-ish talent team in the post-season. That defense is also built to suffocate overmatched teams, but they have been lit up by elite QB play (Bryce, Stroud). Can Beck and that offense keep up when that happens? Maybe, but losing Bowers and McConkey is a pretty big deal. Maybe these other guys can step up, but they've already lost one WR they were counting on. Plus, how had Beck improved under pressure? That OL is stout, but when they played Alabama last year, the pressure really bothered Beck and he threw probably 4 or 5 balls that should have been picked. All that to say that I think UGA has earned the benefit of the doubt, but I don't think it's a slam dunk they get the auto bid from the SEC
Ohio St - I know the roster is loaded and they went all in in the portal, but I am not sold on the OL or the QB at this point. Maybe it's from watching a full season of Seth McLaughlin with the snapping yips. I'm also not sold on Ryan Day's ability to win the tough games late in the season. B1G appears to be a 3-4 game season and I have questions on Day to win the game he has to win
Oregon - Similar to Ryan Day, can Lanning win the games he has to win to get a championship. So far, the answer is no. They have had the most talented team in the PAC 12 the last couple of seasons, and he's failed to win that conference. Now he moves to a tougher one that will involve some pretty big changes in travel schedule as well as style of play. The also won't be able to out-talent their opponent in the biggest game of the regular season. I think they made a great pickup at QB, but there's no guarantee that he can play at the level that Nix did last season
Texas - Similar to Oregon, big step up in quality of week to week opponents. The depth is already being tested, how will it hold up for a full season? They have been able to get away with some stinkers in the past and still win, they are going to have to play with a higher level of consistency week to week. Definitely have the easiest path in the conference among the contenders though
Alabama - I think the questions here are pretty obvious.
The above teams are the ones who I think have the roster depth, as of today, to handle the playoff gauntlet. But none of them have the depth from an experience standpoint that they would have enjoyed a few seasons ago. So a key injury or two could change things massively. Moving past the top 5 teams in the AP:
Ole Miss - I don't trust Lane to win big games. They have made significant improvements on both lines of scrimmage though
Notre Dame - I honestly don't know much about their team, but I pretty much discredit them on the surface every season. And like it was mentioned, they can't win a conference so their margin of error to get in the playoff is a little smaller
Penn St - I don't trust Franklin
Michigan - Intriguing team. Coming off a dream season, breaking in a first time head coach, and they lost a ton from that team, I'm just not sure they will have the horses. I'm really interested in that game week 2 when Texas comes to town
FSU - I don't know many specifics, but I think Norvell is a pretty good coach and an excellent talent accumulator. Winnable conference, but I can't help but think about them filling their roster with a bunch of guys from Alabama that wouldn't have started. Will they be good enough to beat other potential playoff teams?
Past those teams, I only see Clemson and Tennessee as teams I think can not only make the playoffs, but actually win a few games.
My main point of this rambling post is that I think this is a pretty wide open season. If you want to bet one of UGA or Ohio St, I think I would wait and see if they lose a game early and bet then, or better yet, don't win their conference but get an at-large. Maybe take the loser of these games: Ohio St/Oregon, UGA/Alabama, Texas/UGA
UGA - I guess I trust them the most, but this will be by far the toughest schedule they've had in the Kirby era. I know they reload, but they have lost a ton over the last 3 seasons, especially on defense. On one hand, I think the tougher schedule will help them, because they won't be as surprised when they meet an equal-ish talent team in the post-season. That defense is also built to suffocate overmatched teams, but they have been lit up by elite QB play (Bryce, Stroud). Can Beck and that offense keep up when that happens? Maybe, but losing Bowers and McConkey is a pretty big deal. Maybe these other guys can step up, but they've already lost one WR they were counting on. Plus, how had Beck improved under pressure? That OL is stout, but when they played Alabama last year, the pressure really bothered Beck and he threw probably 4 or 5 balls that should have been picked. All that to say that I think UGA has earned the benefit of the doubt, but I don't think it's a slam dunk they get the auto bid from the SEC
Ohio St - I know the roster is loaded and they went all in in the portal, but I am not sold on the OL or the QB at this point. Maybe it's from watching a full season of Seth McLaughlin with the snapping yips. I'm also not sold on Ryan Day's ability to win the tough games late in the season. B1G appears to be a 3-4 game season and I have questions on Day to win the game he has to win
Oregon - Similar to Ryan Day, can Lanning win the games he has to win to get a championship. So far, the answer is no. They have had the most talented team in the PAC 12 the last couple of seasons, and he's failed to win that conference. Now he moves to a tougher one that will involve some pretty big changes in travel schedule as well as style of play. The also won't be able to out-talent their opponent in the biggest game of the regular season. I think they made a great pickup at QB, but there's no guarantee that he can play at the level that Nix did last season
Texas - Similar to Oregon, big step up in quality of week to week opponents. The depth is already being tested, how will it hold up for a full season? They have been able to get away with some stinkers in the past and still win, they are going to have to play with a higher level of consistency week to week. Definitely have the easiest path in the conference among the contenders though
Alabama - I think the questions here are pretty obvious.
The above teams are the ones who I think have the roster depth, as of today, to handle the playoff gauntlet. But none of them have the depth from an experience standpoint that they would have enjoyed a few seasons ago. So a key injury or two could change things massively. Moving past the top 5 teams in the AP:
Ole Miss - I don't trust Lane to win big games. They have made significant improvements on both lines of scrimmage though
Notre Dame - I honestly don't know much about their team, but I pretty much discredit them on the surface every season. And like it was mentioned, they can't win a conference so their margin of error to get in the playoff is a little smaller
Penn St - I don't trust Franklin
Michigan - Intriguing team. Coming off a dream season, breaking in a first time head coach, and they lost a ton from that team, I'm just not sure they will have the horses. I'm really interested in that game week 2 when Texas comes to town
FSU - I don't know many specifics, but I think Norvell is a pretty good coach and an excellent talent accumulator. Winnable conference, but I can't help but think about them filling their roster with a bunch of guys from Alabama that wouldn't have started. Will they be good enough to beat other potential playoff teams?
Past those teams, I only see Clemson and Tennessee as teams I think can not only make the playoffs, but actually win a few games.
My main point of this rambling post is that I think this is a pretty wide open season. If you want to bet one of UGA or Ohio St, I think I would wait and see if they lose a game early and bet then, or better yet, don't win their conference but get an at-large. Maybe take the loser of these games: Ohio St/Oregon, UGA/Alabama, Texas/UGA
longshotsws
Active Member
Of teams with 250-1 odds, I’m with you.
When I look at crazy long odds, I also look at the odds to get in CFP as well as to win conference.
I don’t think it’s realistic to draw a scenario where somehow Kansas gets in at large without winning B12.
So then I’d ask is the 10-1 payout to win B12 better than 250-1 to win CFP. I think B12 odds are better and if it somehow hit, you could keep parlaying that game by game and still reach around 250-1 if the Jayhawks averaged out to be roughly a +195 ML dog over three games.
Professor
Member
Washington Huskies should still be tough Utah utes should be as well
Professor
Member
There will be a surprise team win it this year with the 12 team format. Just like March madness your going to have a upset team do incredible things and I can see a team that no one expects to be in the championship and possibly win it. I love the 12 team playoff. Every year there is a few teams that are undefeated but play a weaker schedule and don't get a shot now they do.
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
I can agree with that for sure. I love the expansion to 12 teams. We can throw the past trends out the window.
FadeTheHype
Pretty much a regular
I think Penn St is worth throwing a few bones on as a darkhorse. Think they can hang with anyone
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
brewers888
Chicken Little
It definitely was not me but good luck to whoever has that bet.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Oh it was you
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Outside of those teams first mentioned, I’d look at Utah
