IC: March 29th Top Play

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indiancowboy

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Hey fellas,

Killa - it was you in the questioned thread and I'm glad you posted and of course, I didn't take it to heart as that is what is everything wrong with the place. When you they foolishly idolize a capper and do not realize he is just another person and anyone, and anyone can go on runs, it's just a part of the gig as well as going on bad streaks as well. True, I don't have to post there, but I just want to take care of a few haters first - :smiley_acbe:

I probably won't be there beginning this fall.

Also, I do want to propose this question, I've been doing totals more and more, but it seems that it takes books a little big longer to catch up to certain totals - roughly 4-5 games letter on a trend. I would ask this question at the other place, but fear of getting ridiculous answers, I will ask it here where there are far more insightful cappers.

Take care gents -

433/704=61.5

700's continue to be kind (4 of 5)

March 29th Top Play

Memphis/Portland Under 194.5 (sportsbook, sportsbetting - but belmont and superbook also have it).

Another Memphis road game and this seems like a good spot for another under here.

Mike Miller of course is still out and Memphis has shifted it seems to playing a bit more defense where as with Miller they were runnin' and gunnin' much like a junior varsity Phoenix Suns team.

First off, the under is actually 13-4-1 over the last 18 games between these two teams but we are concerned with recent trends.

Sure, the Memphis trends point to overs, but then again, that is when they had Miller and now for back to back games they have not had Miller nor Staudamire for that matter, and consequently, the under is 2-0 during this span.

Both players are out indefinitely and on top of that Chucky Atkins is listed as questionable due to a groin injury as well.

Portland is a more defensive minded team on top of that which makes it appealing as well and i'm not sure if Memphis breaks 85 in this game, but I'll lave the cutoff for Memphis at 90.

For Portland, I am setting the cutoff at 100.

Memphis to their credit did hold the Lakers to less than 90 points and although Portland is a very good team, they have been playing more and more unders at home.

In fact, the Portland vs. Wizard game alone totaled at 198 and this line is set only 3.5 below and considering Memphis is banged up, this is not a bad take here.

The Seattle game totaled at 172 and the Piston game totaled at 162 in Portland recently as well and I'm hoping to see a Seattle #2 but it is unlikely as Portland will look to win this game and not get beat outright at home.

There are some decent trends supporting this play as the under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 games between these two teams, the under is 4-0 in Portland's last 4 and the under is 6-1-1 when the Blazers play teams with a losing straight up record.

I have this game at a 97-87 type ballgame or 184 and that is roughly 10 points below, so I'm going to take it as it seems as good as any play out there. I do think it will be close, but it shades under and I'll have some tums just in case.

This is my game of enjoyment today.

Take care fellas,
IC
 
Good stuff IC ... I've enjoyed your insite the past week or so... keep it up!

I agree with your under logic. I Also really like Portland in this situation. Portland coming off a recent 4 game road trip, losing the last 2 and fighting for that 8 spot. If they want that 8th spot they'll need to turn it on and who ass better to kick than Memphis. Also, I see Mem in a good let down spot coming off a hugh win (for them) and in the middle of a 6 game road swing. Any thoughts?
 
Neither team has a realistic chance at the playoffs but they are both really tough when they are dogs. The problem tonight is that POR is a huge fav, something they are terrible at covering. My thinking has always been that these 2 teams are great 1Q teams and that means they are strong rebounders, and hit high % shots early and often. That kind of early rhythm could make for an over...at least in 1H.

I am not sold on either the over or under yet. Will look into this further.

GL IC. I think both sites are very valuable, and are equally useful.
 
why play under if he plays? he is an extra scorer and a good defender.
 
That team has plenty of scorers but not so many that can latch on to the other sides top gun and make a difference. Think Gordon would not have had a party if he had played at Chicago.
 
Impressive totals run!

Saved my evening yesterday after losing on da Bulls, thanks a lot for posting.
 
Nice Work IC!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:36_1_36: :dance3: money; :bow: :Wacka%20Wacka: :cheers: :smiley_abcs: :smiley_abds: :smiley_ablb: :smiley_abvm: :4_17_208: :smiley_aalg: :23_5_126:
 
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