I
indiancowboy
Guest
April 23rd: (465/752)
Pistons/Magic Over 182.5
I was on this over before and I'm going to ride this over again. The Magic were 18 of 36 from the line and if they hit their free throws in that game, who knows what would have happened. They got plenty of offense from their role players so I suspect them to come back and play with even more vengeance today.
This team played very hard and put up 92 points even with poor free throw shooting and they put up 99 before in the palace. I think they get 95 today personally and of course, the Pistons will have to keep up. I think this game comes out to be a 99-95 type of ballgame and I think the Magic have a good shot at covering as well, but more importantly, I think the game goes over.
Vegas typically only moves odds ever so slowly, especially when it comes to totals which explains that they expect the Magic to play a bit better today, as it is Game 2 and they will with more of a sense of urgency, but I think the active dog/over principle applies. If the Pistons have a lead late, and the Magic starts fouling, I would hate for the Magic to miss the cover, but I do think the game goes over as the last 7 meetings in Detroit have gone over - hence, active dog/over.
Personally, I will hit this over every time the game is at the Palace up until 185 because I play up to 10 points at what I have the spread, for example, I have this game at 194. I also think that the Houston game goes under again as long as Alston keeps missing the 3's as they double down on Tracy and Yao, then I think that total is set too high. However, I'd rather bank it on a Magic team that is shooting the ball well, I think they get better from the stripe and consequently the game hits 183.
The Over is 6-1 in the Magic's last 7 road games as well.
I'll post some prop bets once the book releases them this evening - they are quite weak on them - i.e. Melo makes a 3 prop, The Mavs/Warriors Game, the lead will be less than 19. .
That's what I'm on gents -
Take care,
IC
Pistons/Magic Over 182.5
I was on this over before and I'm going to ride this over again. The Magic were 18 of 36 from the line and if they hit their free throws in that game, who knows what would have happened. They got plenty of offense from their role players so I suspect them to come back and play with even more vengeance today.
This team played very hard and put up 92 points even with poor free throw shooting and they put up 99 before in the palace. I think they get 95 today personally and of course, the Pistons will have to keep up. I think this game comes out to be a 99-95 type of ballgame and I think the Magic have a good shot at covering as well, but more importantly, I think the game goes over.
Vegas typically only moves odds ever so slowly, especially when it comes to totals which explains that they expect the Magic to play a bit better today, as it is Game 2 and they will with more of a sense of urgency, but I think the active dog/over principle applies. If the Pistons have a lead late, and the Magic starts fouling, I would hate for the Magic to miss the cover, but I do think the game goes over as the last 7 meetings in Detroit have gone over - hence, active dog/over.
Personally, I will hit this over every time the game is at the Palace up until 185 because I play up to 10 points at what I have the spread, for example, I have this game at 194. I also think that the Houston game goes under again as long as Alston keeps missing the 3's as they double down on Tracy and Yao, then I think that total is set too high. However, I'd rather bank it on a Magic team that is shooting the ball well, I think they get better from the stripe and consequently the game hits 183.
The Over is 6-1 in the Magic's last 7 road games as well.
I'll post some prop bets once the book releases them this evening - they are quite weak on them - i.e. Melo makes a 3 prop, The Mavs/Warriors Game, the lead will be less than 19. .
That's what I'm on gents -
Take care,
IC
