I don't post often, but... (Huge play!)

jdoggoakley

Pretty much a regular
First, I'd like to thank all of the regular posters who spend their valuable time sharing their information with the rest of us who like to lurk, read and make sound decisions based on the info. You should know that your hard work is greatly appreciated, eventhough sometimes not expressed. Now, on to the reason for my post -

I feel that I have some decent insight into a bowl game that really hasn't been discussed that much (except for the Desmond Howard butcher job). The Holiday Bowl between Texas A&M and Cal. I live in Berkeley and have watched or been to most of the Cal games this year. I also have good friends at A&M and was able to go to the Nebraska game this year and really able to look at that team as well.

Here's what I see in this matchup: Cal opened the year as a pre-season top 10 team. They’ve got a heisman hopeful in Marshawn Lynch at RB and NFL first rounders in DeShawn Jackson WR, Desmond Bishop LB and Daymeion Hughes CB. They got kicked in the mouth in week 1 against Tennessee and were sort of given a wake up call. They responded and played a mostly good Pac 10 schedule, beating the teams they were supposed to beat. They’re in a great spot to get a Rose Bowl shot by beating AZ on the road (13-point chalk) with USC on deck. They go into AZ and lay another egg – biggest loss of the season that shattered just about all hopes of a successful season. They lose to SC and then play really flat against their bitter rival Stanford. Jeff Tedford is a good coach and does a very good recruiting job, but I believe he has lost this team. Their OL has been getting blown off the ball of late and although Marshawn has sprinkled in a few good games, he has been banged up all year with both ankles bothering him. As Pac-10 offensive and defensive players of the Year, Lynch and Hughes are seeing dollar signs, imho.
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
A&M on the other hand has played terrific football down the stretch, as they went on the road and beat the team that they hate most – UT. That was a huge win for this program and young QB Stephen McGee. He doesn’t have the greatest arm, but his legs are good and can pull the ball down and run. In the backfield, they have Ironhead II in Javorski Lane, who weighs about 290 as a tailback. They also switch it up and use Freshman Michael Goodson who is a speedster (unfortunately for A&M, he is the reason they lost the Nebraska game). Either way, they have speed and power in the backfield and McGee at QB – Cal has shown that they’re not real good at stopping the run this year and I feel this matchup completely favors A&M.
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
Add to all that…..I’M GETTING 5 POINTS!!!!!
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
When the matchup was made, I figured the game would be a pick or A&M a very slight favorite. I not only like A&M on the ML +173, but I think getting 5 is an absolute gift. This, along with Michigan, will be my two largest wagers of the bowl season (of which I was on TCU and BYU already).
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
Prediction:

Texas A&M 30 Cal 24
<!--[if !supportEmptyParas]--> <!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p>
Good luck with everyone’s plays.
[FONT=&quot]J [/FONT]
 
Ive always thought Cal was the most overrated team in cfb. Who did they beat last year? No one.. Same for this year. Tedford is vastly overrated. Their qb play is suspect at best. Yea Jackson is sick and im still pissed he turned down USC, but this is a bigger game for A&m to build momentum for next year, which is key in these type of bowl games.
 
Despite being a UT guy, I love A&M in this game as well. My only question is where does the line go between now and game time. It opened at Cal -4 and is up to -5. Does the line keep go up some more as the game approaches?
 
Already posted it as my bowl game of the year.

I hammered +6 the day it came out and will be crushing local books as well come next Thursday. I have had a big green circle on my calendar for 2 weeks now.

A$M's ground game hasnt been stopped all year....and Cal is supposed to be up to the task? Jeff "my team always loses their ass down the stretch" Tedford is gonna have them ready?

LOVE IT!
 
yes texas a$m here money line

:cheers: couldnt agree more A&M should be the favorite Or A pick Cal has been fading the last 4 to 5 games im all over it
 
Last edited:
Thanks All!

Thanks for all the kind words.


One other factor I forgot to mention in my writeup is the lack of QB play that Cal has. Longshore is really not a very good QB. He's a sophomore, but didn't play at all last year after breaking his ankle in an early season game against UC-Davis. His arm is suspect and he doesn't have great mobility in the pocket. A&M's D doesn't blow me away, but I see them giving him some trouble.

J
 
Line just dropped

Now just dropped to 4 1/2 with my guys and now I see 4's are beginning to pop up. I would guess you may see 3's before kick off.
Just my $0.02, I would not try to middle this game - I believe A&M win straight up.

Good luck and thanks to everyone here for posting their winners - loads of guys kicking their books asses!
J
 
well...

now my guys have posted Cal as a 3-point fav. This line is dropping like rock.
Do you see -1 or Pick by game time??
I still feel that A&M is the right side and should win SU.

Good luck.
J
 
Gl Jdog.....on this one with you as well. ATM finished their year off really solid. I think that Cal will have a tough time containing the J train as nobody has been able to stop him so far this year. After the big win against the Horns this ATM is energized and ready to roll. GL
 
Yanks26Sox6 said:
love the analysis...and on it too. :cheers:
Second that. Well thought out and I am betting the conclusions are correct. 7-0 early in the first :drinking:
PS I see that Troy likes the Aggies and that usually is a pretty second opinion.
:shake:
 
Back
Top