I can't ignore the value- Bears +7

[tee*dub]

I will be in Vegas once again for SB XLI. I am waiting on the number but definately taking the Bears +7 (hopefully better).. Staying at the Wynn. Sweet seats at Elton John concert Sat night at Ceasars. No bashing please--Have to keep the wife in good spirits. But I digress. Here are my thoughts. Feel free to abuse the thread as I expect many will eat the chalk. Trust me, I was tempted but I can't ignore what I believe is true value. Bears +7

-Bear's physical offense line has a clear advantage versus Colt defense. I know the numbers of the Colt defense in the playoffs and I would have Bob Sander's child if he would allow me, but bottom line is, Colt defense is not good and they were manhandled by Pats in the 1H.. Game got out of wack and Peyton took over but this is a mismatch.

-I fully expect the Colts to put eight in the box and I fully expect Rex to be average versus a defense that he should excel against. BUT even when Rex is bad the Bears are pretty good AND when Rex is average the Bears are real good. Note to Rex: Just be average.

-Bears defense is much better than Pats. Dallas Clark will not run free in the middle of the field and something is just not right with Harrison. Maybe its his wrist or age but he is a shadow of the receiver he once was IMO.

-Bob Sanders is not healthy. Not practicing this week and will require off season surgery.. A warrior and a guy I respect but he is not going to have the impact most think.

-Bear receivers will cause mismatch problems all over the field. Dungy has to know this. What are his options? None are good. Bears can run at you and if you load up the box, the receiver mismatches become even more pronounced.. Note to Rex: please, for the love of God, just be average.

Since I am in Vegas, I am sure I will bet more than I should on this game but under normal circumstances this would be a 3 unit play for me. (MY range is 1-4 units...

GL all:smiley_acbe:

 

[frankiegotti]

I am on the opposite side. My reasoning is because the bears defense has not been the same since their saftey tore a ligament in his knee. I respect the bears defense a lot it just seems like they are having problems stopping people also i don't think they have seen a talent at quarterback like peyton manning.

Any props that stick out to you?

 

[Terpman92]

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Tee- good luck to you bro, I find this Super Bowl hard to judge. I would not take Indy at -7 or higher, no way! On the other hand I find it difficult to take the Bears at any less than +7.5. This is more of a gut than a brain feel. I think the better bet is OVER. I see this being a hard offensive explosion. It's the Super Bowl, special teams and offense will go "balls out" IMO. If Peyton plays with the type of intensity he did last weekend they should win no problem! By 7 or more not so sure. Good luck to you bro!
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[STEED]

I am on the opposite side. My reasoning is because the bears defense has not been the same since their saftey tore a ligament in his knee. I respect the bears defense a lot it just seems like they are having problems stopping people also i don't think they have seen a talent at quarterback like peyton manning.

Any props that stick out to you?

pittsburgh, PA sportin an ohio state logo? lol tell me your an alum frankie :cheers:

 

[suprman70ss]

the bears are going to get dominated, i guarantee it. bears d has been average at best since like week 15 and peyton is amazing. Colts defense has been awesome this postseason and i don't care if bob sanders is still hurtinh he will definitely make an impact. 34-14 colts

 

[tee*dub]

the bears are going to get dominated, i guarantee it. bears d has been average at best since like week 15 and peyton is amazing. Colts defense has been awesome this postseason and i don't care if bob sanders is still hurtinh he will definitely make an impact. 34-14 colts

Uhh. Check Peyton's QB rating in the playoffs.

 

[handy]

The Bears +6.5/7 is going to be a public bet. That's all I know and that's good enough reason for me not to bet them in the biggest TV game of the year.

 

[tee*dub]

The Bears +6.5/7 is going to be a public bet. That's all I know and that's good enough reason for me not to bet them in the biggest TV game of the year.

I pay absolutely no attention to what the public is doing.. Not even sure who the public is.. Gl luck to you though:shake:

 

[brewer]

the bears seem so relaxed when they spoke to the media today. all the pressure in the world is on the colts and peyton manning to get the ring. I think this game is gonna to be relatively tight the whole way. I think the outcome is a field goal either way (im leaning colts by 3).
THere is far too much value in bears +7. bears +7.5 is superb IMO.

 

[tee*dub]

OK, the day is here.

Absolutely white hot in CBB out here (Vegas) yesterday so I have some extra jingle in my pocket..

Sportnut's thread is outstanding, although it took very long to read.. I agree with most details in there..

Staying with my gut as I really think the Bears have a 50/50 shot to win outright.. Small play on the Bear ML but 5 dimes on Bears +7, -115.

(By the way, THe Elton John show at Ceasar's is quite outstanding--wife loved it)

 

[Terpman92]

tee- I'm with you on that! For the past two weeks I couldn't pull the trigger on the Colts. This morning I feel good about +7 and the Bears. Good luck, bro!

 

[SportsNut]

Just wanted to wish you Good Luck and enjoy the day!

 

[VinnyCooch]

I agree Tee, look for Hester and the return game to set the Bears up in + field position,all day.Bears can score in all 3 phases of the game.Other than the second half of NE, Peyton has been "Rex" like.The problem is for Indy to cover,Peyton has to be perfect. GL