I am confused about the Game 3 line for SA/CLE- I need help??

[joebrensports]

How can SA be a 1.5 point fav?

SA closed at 7.5 for game 1 and 7 for game 2. SA blew CLE out of the water for both games. CLE did make runs at the end just like......

UT.

When SA played UT, SA closed at or around 6.5 for both games 1 and 2. SA blew UT out for most of Games 1 and 2 before UT made charges at the end.

Oh BTW 2 different philosphies for UT and CLE on how to handle the end of game situations. CLE benches key starters and doesn't care about spreads or fighting down to the wire. UT fights to the bitter end and even commits fouls down 9 with 6 sec left.

So SA goes to UT for Game 3 and UT is -2

In the NBA finals SA goes to CLE and SA is 1.5

We have a 3.5 point difference for the same situation and almost the same values.

Please provide me reasons for this. I am shocked by the game #3 line for SA/CLE, SA does not perform well in Game 3's when up 2-0. In fact I believe they have only won 1 Game 3 when up 2-0 going on the road and that was at MEM winning by 2. This is going back to 2003.

Why is CLE not -1.5 or -2?

 

[Joe Public]

I figured the line would open around there, too, JB.

My guess is that they knew they'd get SA money no matter what so they might as well make it tougher.

What I don't get is that they're going to get Cleveland money for sure, so why give out plus-money on the ML?

The reality, I suppose, is that Cleveland was flat-out dominated for two games, so to make them the favorite might actually one-side books on the public road dog with the people who've actually watched the series.

 

[joebrensports]

JP I don't get this line at all.

SA history has shown nothing but complacency in this spot. They always lose game 3's when up 2-0 and go on the road. They dominated UT too in Game #1 and #2 and then lost by 26 in Game #3.

This line is shocking. When I saw it last night I thought it was a mistake. Unbelievable

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I think it's a nod to the fact that the spreads for these 1st 2 games were lower than they should have been, but people bought into CLE (on the back of 7 straight ATS covers) so they didnt need to be higher. 2 maulings later (whose final scorelines in no way reflect the disparity present), we get a more accurate line reflecting the difference between these 2 teams.

 

[joebrensports]

SA even lost to NYK in 1999 in Game #3 after going up 2-0.

I am amazed CLE is not fav.

 

[joebrensports]

BC- Got ya. So you are saying SA should have been -9 at home. So fair value for SA @ CLE is -3, but based on situation its -1.5

Makes perfect sense because consensus was CLE in Game #1 and #2.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

joe - thats my way of perceiving things - maybe not -3, but generally that area of a smallish fav.

 

[Joe Public]

Nah, I hear ya, BC. And in a vacuum, I put that line right where they put it here.

SA should be a 2.5 over Cleveland, in Cleveland.

However, in this spot, no way I'd have put this here.

If they really wanted to make SA the favorite, I'd have put this around a PK, then I'd have minimized ML play either way.

I do think, though, in the NBA, that there's so much play between +/- 2 that you can make the argument for any line within that four point window on almost any given night.

Of course, I'm attacking this all from the psychological side of the book (which SportsNut would kill me for). But doing what they did here suggests to me they want people to take Cleveland.

Funny thing, last time they did this was in the EC Finals, when Detroit came to town for whatever it was, Game Six. They asked for Cleveland money, probably got it, and the public went home fat and happy.

We'll see what happens here.

 

[bluemyboy]

I do think, though, in the NBA, that there's so much play between +/- 2 that you can make the argument for any line within that four point window on almost any given night.

sometimes I say 7, making it a 14 point window due to foul shots to end games. and the number can be anything in there really if it is a close game and who has possesion. which is why it is so important to get the best line every night be it the best spread or ML.

But doing what they did here suggests to me they want people to take Cleveland.

early money indications say SA is the public fav here, both on line movement and multiple public percentage sites.

 

[Joe Public]

early money indications say SA is the public fav here, both on line movement and multiple public percentage sites

Awesome. Give me the home dog in an absolute must-win situation at +120 and I'll take it.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

That comparison to the CLE game 6 v DET is a good one.

The only thing people could possibly have been thinking was if DET just win 1 on the road, they get back home where they haven't lost in regulation.

Are those people thinking here, Miami got thrashed to go down 0-2 last season (actually, by more pts combined (24) than what CLE have gone down to SAS (20) ), and they only needed their home venue to get back on track, why can't it be the same for Cleveland?

 

[H.R. Pufnstuf]

Are those people thinking here, Miami got thrashed to go down 0-2 last season (actually, by more pts combined (24) than what CLE have gone down to SAS (20) ), and they only needed their home venue to get back on track, why can't it be the same for Cleveland?

That's exactly what people are thinking. Miami lost by 10 in Game 1 & by 14 in Game 2 (Dallas biggest lead was 27 points and ended with a Miami run). Identical scenario as last year. Cleveland probably wins Game 3 then loses the next 2.