Hypothetical Western Kentucky-Marshall line
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dudleysdad
Guest
Wku -9
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
I would be below a field goal one way or the other. Marshall -1.5 sounds right inside my head fwiw.
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
My numbers are finally done and I get to participate in these activities!
On a neutral pitch, I have We Are Marshall 6 points better going into the season than Western.
On a neutral pitch, I have We Are Marshall 6 points better going into the season than Western.
Just a side note: How extensively does everybody in this thread use Phil Steele's College Football Preview? Personally, I don't pay hardly any attention to his power rankings and conference predictions/etc, but find it to be an invaluable source of information in the preseason.
Paul
Paul
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
PS's mag is as good as it gets...until the games start, then its utility drops off real quick. People get hurt, others lose jobs, others get suspended, freshman get playing time, and by late September the teams on the field don't often resemble the line-up that Phil shows.
I've never once taken a look at his ratings, they just don't do it for me as that isn't how I break down games, and besides they're going to based on info that is at least three months old by the time any football is played.
I've never once taken a look at his ratings, they just don't do it for me as that isn't how I break down games, and besides they're going to based on info that is at least three months old by the time any football is played.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
It closed 23.5 last year, which was wrong, but that's a hell of a move from one year to the next. Last year, Marshall outscored conf opponents by 24 pts/game. WKU was 0. Have to be a pretty giant improvement in the WKU D or the Marshall O to be just awful to call WKU better.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
If only someone around here advocated people take WKU ML in last year's game.
I agree. That is a very large swing year over year, to have wku favored on a neutral.
TheGarfather
Pretty much a regular
Definitely is tough to favor the Toppers after last year's closing line, but I just think Marshall has lost A TON of key personnel. They probably have a deeper roster, but I don't think they necessarily have the same quality in the starting ranks on offense, which is really what matters for teams like this. Afterall, Marshall's defense was so good they gave up 740 yards to WKU last year. With teams that are constructed a certain way and play a certain style, especially in smaller conferences I think perceived edges in defensive personnel have to be minimized and gaps in offense should be over-stated.
This reminds me somewhat of the Houston 2011-12 seasons. Look at what happened to the Cougs the next year after Keenum and Co. left, and it was even a near perfect season that they were coming off of. Marshall's coach is back, that is one difference though.
Although I still have Marshall as microscopically better, I would certainly have to play WKU if they were to be made a home dog.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
Yes, WKU did shred em, but then the next week they held LT, a team that was also scoring forty something a game in conf play, to less than 300 yds. They had also held ODU to under 300, Rice to under 200, and overall performed to a level that had to rank at least 2nd in the conf in defense. They have such a massive lead defensively over WKU, that it's hard for me to fathom how the gap in offense could overcome that.
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[TD="width: 94"] Neutral
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[TD="width: 94"] Marshall
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[TD="width: 94"]
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[TD="width: 94"]
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[TD="width: 94"] West. Kentucky
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[TD="width: 94"] Neutral
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[TD="width: 94"]
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[TD="width: 94"] Marshall
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44.5
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[TD="width: 94"] West. Kentucky
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[TD="width: 94"]
37.8
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-6.8
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Certainly last year's pointspread serves as a reference point deserving some consideration, but the fluid nature of college rosters must be more heavily examined IMO. Marshall will take significant dips in both offensive and defensive ppg, while Western Kentucky is better offensively than last year's edition and considerably stronger defensively. Steele has Marshall higher in his power poll and power ratings, but I just cannot see the Thundering Herd having a higher PR than the Hilltoppers starting the season.
Good luck,
Paul
Good luck,
Paul
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
With all the losses including cato, I have Western 1-2 points better.
Just a personal disagreement, la Tech did not have a great offense. Their defense gave them short fields.
Odu was moving the ball but turned ball over a couple times and Marshall scored at will. Finally OdU just resorted to running out the clock in 2nd half.
Just a personal disagreement, la Tech did not have a great offense. Their defense gave them short fields.
Odu was moving the ball but turned ball over a couple times and Marshall scored at will. Finally OdU just resorted to running out the clock in 2nd half.
horses
Brady licks Marino's knob
Pretty much agree with all the bolded text; nonetheless, improving on defense from horrible to not so horrible doesn't do much for me. Marshall is still better on all 3 levels of defense in my opinion and they have the better offensive line as well. Clearly, WKU has a large QB advantage...I'll call the skill positions close to even.
Western Kentucky's defense gave up 40 points per game last year. If they relatively "improve" to just 35 points per game, that essentially improves their PR by 5 points. And that's before PR adjustments for Western Kentucky's offense; Marshall's offense; and Marshall's defense. This is one of the many reasons I love college football. Persons with advanced knowledge of the brand can have totally different approaches to handicapping and assessing teams. Sometimes, they land on the same side, sometimes they don't. It's getting close folks...
Good luck,
Paul
Good luck,
Paul
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