Husky's RIDE THE TRAIN UCONN ANALYSIS

[husky17]

Uconn -13.5

4-0 for the first time since.. when? i can't even remember, maybe like 1990 back in d1-aa.. We haven't faced the hardest of opponents (by that i mean we've played somewhat garbage teams) but we looked great against Big East foe Pittsburgh on their turf and there is a lot of BUZZ around campus, and people are finally get a lot more excited about the season. I cannot wait until Louisville comes here for homecoming, it's going to be a great game.

But anyways, I won't get ahead of myself. Akron comes to East Hartford this week at a dismal 2-2. They lost a sloppy game to Ohio State 20-2, in which ohio state played terribly. I didn't really look too much upon that game because of how poorly OSU played. WHat i did look at was their loss at Indiana which they were pounded 41-24. Indiana is fucking terrible.

Akron offense is shit, and Uconn is going to stop their pathetic run game and force a lot of turnovers (Uconn has been a great takeaway team this year, especially in the air)

Uconn is going to feature a lot of Donald Brown and Andre Dixon and they are going to have a field day on the ground. Lorenzen will compliment when he needs to, but like all year, he'll stay solid and keep a high completion percentage.



I see this game being very one-sided and defenitely a game they want to use to get the state of Connecticut excited to start off 5-0 and hopefully crack the top 25. (ranked 33 right now, got a couple AP votes last week, though i still don't think a win to Akron will do it)



I see Uconn winning by 17-24

 

[Dmoney416]

I disagree on this one, but GL this weekend. Looking forward to the UConn @ Cincy showdown later on this season.

 

[BigRaktor]

illow:

 

[RetroVK]

Indiana is fucking terrible

I would have Indiana as a favorite over uconn on a neutral field, as would every book in the known universe. Indiana would never lose to Temple the way Connecticut did ( or should have). Also, Akron was not pounded in that game. The game was tied at 17 at halftime. Akron had 24 first downs and Indiana 25. Indiana scored two TD in the last six minutes plus to get a front door cover and make the final score appear deceivingly lopsided. Also, Akron only had five turnovers in 4 games so they appear to be a difficult team to rely on for the gimmes. Ohio state is the only team ( army , ohio state , indiana , kent state ) to have more than one first down more than the zips. And from a statistical standpoint , Ohio state is the only team they have played that warranted winning by over two td. Outside of Duke the uconn offense has been anything but explosive. They managed 27 offensive points plus an int for td vs pittsburgh. the panthers turned it over 6 times in that game and one of uconns td drives started at the pitt 6 and a field goal drive started at the pitt 30. They were outgained in that game by 60 yards. They scored just 22 vs Temple at home. Akron is arguably the best defense that uconn will have faced this year. Uconn has been a major benefactor of turnovers so far and while some of that can be attributed to their quality DB's a lot has to be contributed to luck as we all know. I don't see it but then again you told me uconn would roll duke and I thought that game would be close. you were right there. I hope you are wrong this time as i have a big akron ticket that i need to cash.

 

[husky17]

Uconn won @ Indiana last year 14-7, with a terrible terrible Uconn team. so i totally disagree with you there. Who has Indiana beat? Western Mich by 10, and Indiana st. woo, fucking whoo.

Akron ranks 117th or worse in every offensive category except FG % (44) and their defense gives close to 400 yards a game..

on the other hand, Uconn averages 385 yards a game, 35th in points scored a game at 34.5.. all offensive categories 75th or better ranked in the country..

while thats not too impressive, their Defense ranks 11th in total ypg, 32 in passing yards, 20 in rushing yards at 80 ypg, and 7th in scoring allowing 11 ppg..




Like I said, they havent played quality opponents besides Duke, but Akron hasn't either and they have fared very poorly.


I respect your opposition, but taking a big ticket on Akron is very risky, and downright stupid in my opinion..


Uconn cashes.

 

[metsrp86]

I dont want to pile on here, but I have to disagree with the play as well.

UConn should have lost to Temple at home two weeks ago! The same Temple team that got blown out at home by Barfalo, and the same team that has 0 wins this year.

Last week, UConn was really outgained by Pitt in most offensive categories, and were saved by 6 TOs forced by the defense. They still only won the game by 20, despite those 6 TOs.

UConn is the most overrated team along with Wisky in the country. They have beaten Duke, Maine, Temple (should have lost), and Pitt (wont say they should have lost but Pitt did everything to give it away). This team is too one dimensional on offense, and their D has yet to really be tested by a decent offense.

I still think theyll win against the Zips, but I cant see them winning by more than 2 TDs unless Akron pulls a Pitt. UConn will be a great team to fade if they win here...

 

[husky17]

I don't really see Uconn as overrated. What's overrated? Louisville is overrated. Michigan was overrated. How is Uconn? they aren't even rated, unless you count # 33 in the country as overrated.


You say, oh they just won because of turnovers. Well any team that can force turnovers, Like Uconn can, is a good team that will cover. I don't see how you can talk down on them forcing turnovers if they are turning that into points, which they did, and which they defenitely do vs. a bad offense of Akron

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I think people look down on them forcing turnovers because they've faced bad offenses...

Akron is also a bad offense, so I think you can count on them forcing a couple more this Saturday..

But this is the best D prolly the've faced so far....

 

[husky17]

better D than Pitt?

Pitt's D ranks 13th in total yards, 23rd in total passing yards, 35th in rushing in rushing, and 21st in points allowed. Playing vs better teams than Akron has.



I don't mean to seem all defensive, but the stats dont lie and I really feel very confident with Uconn this week.

 

[metsrp86]

I do feel that #33 in the country is vastly overrated. IMO, they will lose 5 of their next 7 games after Akron. They have @Virginia, Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers, @Cincy, Cuse, and West Virgina. I think theyll split Virginia and Louisville (could lose both tho too), and beat Cuse. The rest are all loses IMO. Going 7-5 best case really isnt top 40 material in IMO. I agree both Louisville and Michigan are (were) overrated as well though.

They did turn those TOs into points, but the offense didnt do alot with the football and really benefited from amazing field position. They held Donald Brown to 53 yards rushing, and Lorenzen completed less than half his passes for only 174 yards. Pitt's offense is woeful other than McCoy. Kevan Smith may be the worst QB in the country, and Bostick was a frsoh play his first game. I still believe they will beat Akron, and even though I have a little on Akron ATS, I hope Uconn blows them out if they cover so I can fade them against better football teams.

I always appreciate a Homer's take on their team, but I disagree this time. .. Nothing against the Huskies personally, so best of luck to them!

 

[Dmoney416]

My play is not really based on any opinion of UConn being a bad team, but I have personally seen Akron twice and came away impressed with their defense (I didn't see the Indiana game where they were shredded on the ground though). After looking at the Pitt/UConn game, it seemed to me that the Pitt defense did a fairly good job of stopping them, but the six turnovers killed any chance Pitt had of winning.

As a Cincy fan, I have no reason to claim teams are overrated based on turnover margin. This play is based on Akron's defense, which I feel is comparable to Pittsburgh's.

 

[Dmoney416]

better D than Pitt?

Pitt's D ranks 13th in total yards, 23rd in total passing yards, 35th in rushing in rushing, and 21st in points allowed. Playing vs better teams than Akron has.



I don't mean to seem all defensive, but the stats dont lie and I really feel very confident with Uconn this week.

Thing is, I think stats do lie this early in the season considering the variety of non-conference schedules. Pitt has played Eastern Michigan, Grambling St., @Michigan St., and UConn. I'm not saying that Akron has played powerhouses either, but the stats can be deceiving.

Also, I would consider Akron's slate of Army, @Ohio St., @Indiana, and Kent St. tougher than Pitt's early slate. At the very least, Akron has faced much more capable offenses.

 

[husky17]

SEABASS NEED YOUR HELP ON THIS ONE LOL.. know you watched last game..

by the way, u heading to renchstler on sat? let me know, ill b there

 

[husky17]

uconns starting outside linebacker ryan henegan, who has been out all season, will play sat.

 

[horses]

I gave UConn a pretty long look before deciding to pass this game. I personally think it's a bad spot for Akron, going on the road after a huge conference win, with a conference game on deck (I think, going from memory). Meanwhile, Uconn is home with a lot of excitement; I think they will want to make up for their shoddy showing at home last time against Temple.

Sounds really good, doesn't it?

The one thing keeping me off this game is their offense; they have yet to sniff 400 yds yet this season, and that was against weaker defenses than they'll see this week (save for Pitt perhaps). Hard to cover two scores when that is the case.

I think this game will be right around the spread unless Uconn gets some TO's and easy points. I never like to count on that to win a bet, esp when the team I'm going against is pretty well coached and minimizes those TO's.

My .02.

GL.

 

[dmart420]

looking ahead from last week, i initially liked uconn in this spot. now i have the huskies winning a close game. i think the zips d will hold the running game in check long enough to cover in this spot. this is a no play for me. gun at my head, i'd take the points here, i think, maybe, possibly.

 

[husky17]

going to prolly play them straight, and add them in a tease... but tonight im going to most likely Add:


USF +7

 

[Briank017]

AKROn +15

 

[Briank017]

good job little brother..u nailed it

 

[RetroVK]

Husky , you were correct.

 

[husky17]

:smiley_acbe:

 

[Dmoney416]

Good call husky. That Kickoff return at the end of the first half really demoralized Akron. UConn dominated the 2nd half.

 

[Seabass]

:smiley_acbe:

Sorry I didn't get to this thread until today...been a busy week at work.

Had one helluva tailgate-think we had about 40 people at one point down there...drank more than I've had since graduating college. Great time.

God I hope we beat Virginia so we can go into the night game at home undefeated...