TheShadyNFL
Pretty much a regular
I like the colts and I like the under working out what seems like the best value here. feel free to read on if need be.
Now mainly why I like the colts. Player for player in a fair game I think colts win by 10 or more based on Grossman failing to produce in a big spot again. I don't think the colts run defense it as bad as the stats say. Hell, at this point stats can almost be thrown out the window.
Colts should win but It wouldn't be the end of the world for me if they lost. However, it would be a disaster for Peyton and the NFL imo who likes to promote the sh!t out of him. They would be the national joke every time they show those manning commercials. I don't think the league wants Peyton to lose this game. ATS obviously a different story anything can happen and often does in the NFL.
When money seems to be close to even I take the team I think should and will cover and that's the colts in this case. In regards to their defense sure the stats say its awful against the run. Last year they were 4th overall in defense in the AFC, this year last. why? who did they lose? Nobody intrical enough in my eyes to tell me its not the same defense as last years team.
When the run defense was at its worst I think you will notice a trend. it was more often than not when the big money was on the colts and they don't cover those weeks. Coincidence? You know how I pick these games. My excuse for the colts defense playing bad this year? I say it was in shady games where the colts couldn't cover and this year manning didn't take the fall the defense did. Since they did that people started to doubt the colts ability to win big games and they still keep winning those big games.
I expect a very carefully played 1st half by both teams. 13-10 13-7 type half. If this game does get ugly I don't think it will in the 1st half. colts 27 bears 10 is my prediction. but obviously I cant see the future so I am still debating about what will be best for me as far as my actual wagers go as far as money line and spread. no more debate now I will lay the points and not take the money line. the ML will be involved in a parlay w/ the under unless I decide to go w/ a teaser instead to make the under have a little more of a cushion
if bears can pressure manning and knock him down type of pressure it may cause turnovers and that's how the bears will win. it could easily happen but I don't think it will.
1 other thing i wanted to mention was look at the bears schedule and sure their defense is great hell I will even call it nasty but the best team they played all year was NE and they lost. other than that they played a bunch of weak teams and that's why they achieved home field.
One game this may be but I think along w/ many that the AFC still dominates the NFL and the best team the bears played this year was NE they lost by 4, other afc teams? jets win 10-0, not impressive to me. beat buffalo early but lost on the field to Miami. so they weren't so good against the better conference imo
not saying its a guarantee. This play is slightly more as far a money goes than I had on USC over MICH this season. A little more than 2 NFL units. and not more than 1 unit on the parlay so it wont make or break my bank, just who I think will win,
yea defense wins championships and gun to my head who has a better defensive squad I will pick the bears but Manning can overcome I think. Sea made the bears defense look pretty bad imo. Bears should be able to stop the run but the secondary against the colts is always a make or break game and I think manning gets it done after finally getting here
Heavily considered playing the ML instead but had that won and any other wagers lost the ML winner wouldn't be worth the risk imo so I will lay the points. If I put in a teaser or a parlay I will prob do it Sunday, but this I wanted to get in now before the juice starts going crazy at some books
IND -6.5
Now mainly why I like the colts. Player for player in a fair game I think colts win by 10 or more based on Grossman failing to produce in a big spot again. I don't think the colts run defense it as bad as the stats say. Hell, at this point stats can almost be thrown out the window.
Colts should win but It wouldn't be the end of the world for me if they lost. However, it would be a disaster for Peyton and the NFL imo who likes to promote the sh!t out of him. They would be the national joke every time they show those manning commercials. I don't think the league wants Peyton to lose this game. ATS obviously a different story anything can happen and often does in the NFL.
When money seems to be close to even I take the team I think should and will cover and that's the colts in this case. In regards to their defense sure the stats say its awful against the run. Last year they were 4th overall in defense in the AFC, this year last. why? who did they lose? Nobody intrical enough in my eyes to tell me its not the same defense as last years team.
When the run defense was at its worst I think you will notice a trend. it was more often than not when the big money was on the colts and they don't cover those weeks. Coincidence? You know how I pick these games. My excuse for the colts defense playing bad this year? I say it was in shady games where the colts couldn't cover and this year manning didn't take the fall the defense did. Since they did that people started to doubt the colts ability to win big games and they still keep winning those big games.
I expect a very carefully played 1st half by both teams. 13-10 13-7 type half. If this game does get ugly I don't think it will in the 1st half. colts 27 bears 10 is my prediction. but obviously I cant see the future so I am still debating about what will be best for me as far as my actual wagers go as far as money line and spread. no more debate now I will lay the points and not take the money line. the ML will be involved in a parlay w/ the under unless I decide to go w/ a teaser instead to make the under have a little more of a cushion
if bears can pressure manning and knock him down type of pressure it may cause turnovers and that's how the bears will win. it could easily happen but I don't think it will.
1 other thing i wanted to mention was look at the bears schedule and sure their defense is great hell I will even call it nasty but the best team they played all year was NE and they lost. other than that they played a bunch of weak teams and that's why they achieved home field.
One game this may be but I think along w/ many that the AFC still dominates the NFL and the best team the bears played this year was NE they lost by 4, other afc teams? jets win 10-0, not impressive to me. beat buffalo early but lost on the field to Miami. so they weren't so good against the better conference imo
not saying its a guarantee. This play is slightly more as far a money goes than I had on USC over MICH this season. A little more than 2 NFL units. and not more than 1 unit on the parlay so it wont make or break my bank, just who I think will win,
yea defense wins championships and gun to my head who has a better defensive squad I will pick the bears but Manning can overcome I think. Sea made the bears defense look pretty bad imo. Bears should be able to stop the run but the secondary against the colts is always a make or break game and I think manning gets it done after finally getting here
Heavily considered playing the ML instead but had that won and any other wagers lost the ML winner wouldn't be worth the risk imo so I will lay the points. If I put in a teaser or a parlay I will prob do it Sunday, but this I wanted to get in now before the juice starts going crazy at some books
IND -6.5
