Houston vs Tulane NCAAF Odds & Predictions
Houston Cougars (1-2) at Tulane Green Wave (2-1)
When/Where Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, Yulman Stadium
Odds: Tulane -4.5, O/U 55
TV: ESPN
Thursday’s meeting between AAC foes Houston and Tulane is unique. For the first time since 2003, the Green Wave are favored against Houston. This occasion suggests that something is special about both teams this year and I think that what makes both teams different than last year’s versions is what justifies a bet on the Green Wave.
Starting with Houston: on offense, the Cougars have taken a major step back. Last year, they averaged over 40 points per game. This year, that figure is down to 27.5. Houston’s offense is struggling to find a rhythm while adjusting to a new head coach and new co-offensive coordinators.
Quarterback D’Eriq King, who’s enduring his third new offensive system in four years, epitomizes Houston’s offensive difficulties. His struggles are crucial because he forms the centerpiece of Houston’s offense.
King has been sacked nine times, while his completion rate is down nine percent from last year. He’s not throwing for 300-400 yards per game like he used to, but depends more on his scrambling threat.
Defensively, the Green Wave currently possess all of their defensive weapons healthy. Patrick Johnson, who was first-team All-AAC and the team’s leader with 10.5 sacks, missed the first half of last year’s game. A starting defensive end and meaningful safety were also out.
The above players were crucial to Tulane limiting opponents to 3.9 YPC last year and, after returning the bulk of its front seven including its best players, Tulane currently ranks 32nd in allowing 3.2 YPC. The strength of Tulane’s run defense is relevant because Houston really relies on its ground game, ranking 36th in run play percentage. With King struggling to pass well, Green Wave defenders know what to focus on.
On the other side, Tulane’s offense enjoys balance with Justin McMillan back at quarterback. He’s shown greater efficiency as a passer and he continues to prosper from having second-team All-AAC 1,100-yard rusher Darius Bradwell in the backfield. Both will thrive against a Houston defense that lost six of its eight top tacklers, including first-round pick Ed Oliver.
I like the "under“ because this should be a run-heavy game with a rolling clock. But Tulane will cover behind smoother rhythm on offense and more quality and continuity defensively.
Picks: Tulane 4.5 & Under 55
Ole Miss vs Cal NCAAF Odds & Predictions
California Golden Bears (3-0) at Ole Miss Rebels (2-1)
When/Where: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Odds: Ole Miss -2.5, O/U 41.5
TV: ESPNU
Most oddsmakers opened Cal as small favorites. But now, Ole Miss is favored by as many as 2.5 points.
I suspect that bettors love Ole Miss because they think that the stark contrast in weather and time will prevent Cal players from functioning well in Mississippi. Kickoff will be at 11 a.m. local time, which is the same as 9 a.m. in California. Also, Mississippi is known for its high humidity and temperatures.
But Cal coach Justin Wilcox is aware of how to handle these sort of weather- and time-related issues. In 2017, his Golden Bears played at North Carolina and won 35-30 as 12-point underdogs.
He knows that medical research has determined that the body requires one day to adjust to crossing one time zone. Since Mississippi is two time zones removed from California, he announced that he’ll have his players begin adjusting their body clock on Wednesday.
Furthermore, weather reports indicate that humidity won’t be an issue. As for temperature, it will be a bit hot. But that’s hardly a unique condition.
Ole Miss should not be favored because it’s not what it once was offensively. It has lost so much talent like its starting quarterback and four of its top five receivers. That group formed Ole Miss’ offensive identity as a unit that was vertically extremely dangerous.
Instead, the Rebels play under a new offensive coordinator who emphasizes the run. Thanks to this flux in identity and departure of quality, the 20.5 points per game that they’re currently mustering represent a far cry from the 30.1 points that they averaged last year.
Poor run blocking helps explain why Ole Miss is averaging only 3.9 YPC despite its renewed emphasis on running. Cal is not the opponent to allow an easy solution as the Bears annually boast a top-tiered run defense in terms of opposing YPC under their current co-defensive coordinators.
While Cal’s plodding, possession- and run-centered offense will lead to an „under,“ its defense will give its offense the edge on Ole Miss. Last year, Cal ranked sixth in takeaways per game and they continue to average two per game, which is twice as many as Ole Miss, and which will create strong field position.
Besides, while Cal’s offense shares Ole Miss’ issue with overall talent, it benefits from having a clear and sustained identity.
Picks: Cal +2.5 & Under 41.5
Alabama vs Souther Miss NCAAF Odds & Predictions
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2-1) at 2. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
When/Where: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, Bryant-Denny Stadium
Odds: Alabama -39, O/U 61.5
TV: ESPN2
Nobody doubts that Alabama will win this game. The question is only by how much. Nick Saban-led Alabama doesn’t tend to utilize its talent sufficiently enough to cover large spreads. Last year, for example, the Tide were 1-3 ATS when favored by 30+ points.
The key, then, is looking at situation and match-up. Both factors favor Southern Miss ATS.
Regarding the situation, the Tide are reeling with numerous injuries. Nine different players are on the injured report, including three starting defensive linemen.
Coach Saban will not want to risk further injury, which would threaten his team’s depth over the course of the season, or do anything to delay the recovery of his injured players. In other words, he has a future to think of that extends much bigger than Saturday’s game.
This injury situation creates a favorable scenario for the visiting Golden Eagles. The Tide defense will likely start four freshmen in its front seven. Yes, those players will be way more talented than their Golden Eagle counterparts. But they still miss experience.
Lack of experience breeds mistakes, breakdowns, and other obstacles that effectively slow down the Bama defense and that will allow Southern Miss to score some points.
I also like the Golden Eagles to score enough points because Alabama’s secondary is very much a weakness. South Carolina, Alabama’s last opponent, knew this and has left plenty of film for Golden Eagle coaches and players to gawk over.
Ryan Hilinksi made his second ever career start against the Tide, which was also his first start against a Power 5 or SEC opponent. The freshman attempted 57 passes while amassing 324 yards and two touchdowns to one interception.
The Gamecocks scored 23 points, but left so many more on the board due to coaching mismanagement and greed-motivated risks.
Southern Miss will take whatever points it can get and it has the same stylistic aspect in its favor to do so. Namely, the Golden Eagles are one of the more frequent passing teams by pass play percentage.
They boast an experienced quarterback in Jack Abraham, a former three-star prospect. He’s completing over 70 percent of his passes for over 11 yards per pass attempt.
All-Conference USA First-Teamer Quez Watkins returned from suspension last week to amass 209 receiving yards and two touchdowns at Troy.
While the Golden Eagles will cover, Tua and Alabama’s own potent pass attack will ensure that the game goes „over.“
Picks: Golden Eagles +39 & Over 61.5
Houston Cougars (1-2) at Tulane Green Wave (2-1)
When/Where Thursday, 8 p.m. ET, Yulman Stadium
Odds: Tulane -4.5, O/U 55
TV: ESPN
Thursday’s meeting between AAC foes Houston and Tulane is unique. For the first time since 2003, the Green Wave are favored against Houston. This occasion suggests that something is special about both teams this year and I think that what makes both teams different than last year’s versions is what justifies a bet on the Green Wave.
Starting with Houston: on offense, the Cougars have taken a major step back. Last year, they averaged over 40 points per game. This year, that figure is down to 27.5. Houston’s offense is struggling to find a rhythm while adjusting to a new head coach and new co-offensive coordinators.
Quarterback D’Eriq King, who’s enduring his third new offensive system in four years, epitomizes Houston’s offensive difficulties. His struggles are crucial because he forms the centerpiece of Houston’s offense.
King has been sacked nine times, while his completion rate is down nine percent from last year. He’s not throwing for 300-400 yards per game like he used to, but depends more on his scrambling threat.
Defensively, the Green Wave currently possess all of their defensive weapons healthy. Patrick Johnson, who was first-team All-AAC and the team’s leader with 10.5 sacks, missed the first half of last year’s game. A starting defensive end and meaningful safety were also out.
The above players were crucial to Tulane limiting opponents to 3.9 YPC last year and, after returning the bulk of its front seven including its best players, Tulane currently ranks 32nd in allowing 3.2 YPC. The strength of Tulane’s run defense is relevant because Houston really relies on its ground game, ranking 36th in run play percentage. With King struggling to pass well, Green Wave defenders know what to focus on.
On the other side, Tulane’s offense enjoys balance with Justin McMillan back at quarterback. He’s shown greater efficiency as a passer and he continues to prosper from having second-team All-AAC 1,100-yard rusher Darius Bradwell in the backfield. Both will thrive against a Houston defense that lost six of its eight top tacklers, including first-round pick Ed Oliver.
I like the "under“ because this should be a run-heavy game with a rolling clock. But Tulane will cover behind smoother rhythm on offense and more quality and continuity defensively.
Picks: Tulane 4.5 & Under 55
Ole Miss vs Cal NCAAF Odds & Predictions
California Golden Bears (3-0) at Ole Miss Rebels (2-1)
When/Where: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Odds: Ole Miss -2.5, O/U 41.5
TV: ESPNU
Most oddsmakers opened Cal as small favorites. But now, Ole Miss is favored by as many as 2.5 points.
I suspect that bettors love Ole Miss because they think that the stark contrast in weather and time will prevent Cal players from functioning well in Mississippi. Kickoff will be at 11 a.m. local time, which is the same as 9 a.m. in California. Also, Mississippi is known for its high humidity and temperatures.
But Cal coach Justin Wilcox is aware of how to handle these sort of weather- and time-related issues. In 2017, his Golden Bears played at North Carolina and won 35-30 as 12-point underdogs.
He knows that medical research has determined that the body requires one day to adjust to crossing one time zone. Since Mississippi is two time zones removed from California, he announced that he’ll have his players begin adjusting their body clock on Wednesday.
Furthermore, weather reports indicate that humidity won’t be an issue. As for temperature, it will be a bit hot. But that’s hardly a unique condition.
Ole Miss should not be favored because it’s not what it once was offensively. It has lost so much talent like its starting quarterback and four of its top five receivers. That group formed Ole Miss’ offensive identity as a unit that was vertically extremely dangerous.
Instead, the Rebels play under a new offensive coordinator who emphasizes the run. Thanks to this flux in identity and departure of quality, the 20.5 points per game that they’re currently mustering represent a far cry from the 30.1 points that they averaged last year.
Poor run blocking helps explain why Ole Miss is averaging only 3.9 YPC despite its renewed emphasis on running. Cal is not the opponent to allow an easy solution as the Bears annually boast a top-tiered run defense in terms of opposing YPC under their current co-defensive coordinators.
While Cal’s plodding, possession- and run-centered offense will lead to an „under,“ its defense will give its offense the edge on Ole Miss. Last year, Cal ranked sixth in takeaways per game and they continue to average two per game, which is twice as many as Ole Miss, and which will create strong field position.
Besides, while Cal’s offense shares Ole Miss’ issue with overall talent, it benefits from having a clear and sustained identity.
Picks: Cal +2.5 & Under 41.5
Alabama vs Souther Miss NCAAF Odds & Predictions
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2-1) at 2. Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0)
When/Where: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, Bryant-Denny Stadium
Odds: Alabama -39, O/U 61.5
TV: ESPN2
Nobody doubts that Alabama will win this game. The question is only by how much. Nick Saban-led Alabama doesn’t tend to utilize its talent sufficiently enough to cover large spreads. Last year, for example, the Tide were 1-3 ATS when favored by 30+ points.
The key, then, is looking at situation and match-up. Both factors favor Southern Miss ATS.
Regarding the situation, the Tide are reeling with numerous injuries. Nine different players are on the injured report, including three starting defensive linemen.
Coach Saban will not want to risk further injury, which would threaten his team’s depth over the course of the season, or do anything to delay the recovery of his injured players. In other words, he has a future to think of that extends much bigger than Saturday’s game.
This injury situation creates a favorable scenario for the visiting Golden Eagles. The Tide defense will likely start four freshmen in its front seven. Yes, those players will be way more talented than their Golden Eagle counterparts. But they still miss experience.
Lack of experience breeds mistakes, breakdowns, and other obstacles that effectively slow down the Bama defense and that will allow Southern Miss to score some points.
I also like the Golden Eagles to score enough points because Alabama’s secondary is very much a weakness. South Carolina, Alabama’s last opponent, knew this and has left plenty of film for Golden Eagle coaches and players to gawk over.
Ryan Hilinksi made his second ever career start against the Tide, which was also his first start against a Power 5 or SEC opponent. The freshman attempted 57 passes while amassing 324 yards and two touchdowns to one interception.
The Gamecocks scored 23 points, but left so many more on the board due to coaching mismanagement and greed-motivated risks.
Southern Miss will take whatever points it can get and it has the same stylistic aspect in its favor to do so. Namely, the Golden Eagles are one of the more frequent passing teams by pass play percentage.
They boast an experienced quarterback in Jack Abraham, a former three-star prospect. He’s completing over 70 percent of his passes for over 11 yards per pass attempt.
All-Conference USA First-Teamer Quez Watkins returned from suspension last week to amass 209 receiving yards and two touchdowns at Troy.
While the Golden Eagles will cover, Tua and Alabama’s own potent pass attack will ensure that the game goes „over.“
Picks: Golden Eagles +39 & Over 61.5
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