I Foresee More than a Ray of Hope for Tampa Bay in Houston
The Rays, who swept the Astros in Houston last year, will try to avenge last night's late-inning defeat at 8:10 ET. Houston is in danger of seeing its 12-game win streak come to an end.
MLB Picks: Tampa Bay RL & Under 7
Tampa Bay has a legitimate chance of winning tonight. But betting on the money-line seems like gold-diggiing to me when I can still get the run-line at plus odds.
Blake Snell (8-4, 2.58 ERA) may seem to be in bad form after his last outing for Tampa, but struggling in Yankees Stadium is typical for him. Before his last outing, he had allowed one run in 23.2 innings. Houston’s ballpark is more suitable for fly ball pitchers. For example, starting pitcher Justin Verlander made himself into more of a fly ball pitcher as an Astro, reliever Chris Devenski thrives as one in Houston, and Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger pitches stronger in Houston than Cleveland.
The 25-year-old southpaw is a budding star, who has dropped his ERA from 4.04 last year to 2.58 this year. HIs stuff is better, so his strikeout and swinging strike rates are improved. He’s walking fewer batters without working in the strike zone as often because he's getting batters to swing outside the zone more frequently.
Snell’s favorite pitch is the fastball, which he throws with 55% frequency. He’s throwing it 1.5 mph harder than last year and inducing 2.2% more whiffs with it. A curveball, slider and change-up give his pitching arsenal more variety and he is inducing a greater whiff percentage with those pitches, too. His slider is his top whiff pitch and has been nearly untouchable, yielding a .086 opposing BA.
It may seem counterintuitive to bet against a 12-game win streak, but 10 of those wins came on the road, where the Astros are stronger. They rank first in slugging away, but 22nd at home and 18th in slugging lefties at home. Houston RL is 1-4 in its last five home games. Snell dominated on the road against the likes of Boston and Seattle, even though both teams rank in the top six at home against the fastball thrown by lefties. His three worst performances came against Baltimore, which slugs .202 higher than Houston in this category, and in Yankee Stadium. Snell will also keep Houston off-balance with his three other pitches, which the Astros rank 20th in slugging against from lefties at home and which Snell relies on more, especially on his lethal sider, with runners in scoring position.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen></iframe>
Justin Verlander (9-2, 1.61 ERA) will help keep the „under.“ On the surface, JV seems relatively human lately, but his last two performances, in which he allowed combined six runs in 13 innings, have very simple explanations. He allowed two of three runs in Oakland very late in his outing, a blowout win for Houston, and he was seeing Texas for the fourth time after owning them three consecutive times this season—eventually, a lineup will have some luck against an opposing pitcher.
Verlander is a fastball pitcher and his fastball shows great form. His last opponent ranks eighth in BA in the past month against the fastball and fourth in BA against the fastball in JV’s favored upper regions of the strike zone. But Oakland only batted .177 against his fastball. Tampa Bay is easily the most overachieving team against the fastball based on the metric BA-xBA, which compares what a team’s BA is with what it should be based on quality of contact. Verlander also boasts a slider and curveball, against which opponents are hitting under .150. Dating to 2017, he has shut out or held to one run his last six opponents following a performance in which he surrendered multiple homers. So expect JV to buckle down.
Expect a tight, low-scoring affair. Look out for Matt Duffy, who is slugging .571 in his past seven days with two homers and can steal a third against Verlander, who has allowed three homers in his past two starts.
The Rays, who swept the Astros in Houston last year, will try to avenge last night's late-inning defeat at 8:10 ET. Houston is in danger of seeing its 12-game win streak come to an end.
MLB Picks: Tampa Bay RL & Under 7
Tampa Bay has a legitimate chance of winning tonight. But betting on the money-line seems like gold-diggiing to me when I can still get the run-line at plus odds.
Blake Snell (8-4, 2.58 ERA) may seem to be in bad form after his last outing for Tampa, but struggling in Yankees Stadium is typical for him. Before his last outing, he had allowed one run in 23.2 innings. Houston’s ballpark is more suitable for fly ball pitchers. For example, starting pitcher Justin Verlander made himself into more of a fly ball pitcher as an Astro, reliever Chris Devenski thrives as one in Houston, and Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger pitches stronger in Houston than Cleveland.
The 25-year-old southpaw is a budding star, who has dropped his ERA from 4.04 last year to 2.58 this year. HIs stuff is better, so his strikeout and swinging strike rates are improved. He’s walking fewer batters without working in the strike zone as often because he's getting batters to swing outside the zone more frequently.
Snell’s favorite pitch is the fastball, which he throws with 55% frequency. He’s throwing it 1.5 mph harder than last year and inducing 2.2% more whiffs with it. A curveball, slider and change-up give his pitching arsenal more variety and he is inducing a greater whiff percentage with those pitches, too. His slider is his top whiff pitch and has been nearly untouchable, yielding a .086 opposing BA.
It may seem counterintuitive to bet against a 12-game win streak, but 10 of those wins came on the road, where the Astros are stronger. They rank first in slugging away, but 22nd at home and 18th in slugging lefties at home. Houston RL is 1-4 in its last five home games. Snell dominated on the road against the likes of Boston and Seattle, even though both teams rank in the top six at home against the fastball thrown by lefties. His three worst performances came against Baltimore, which slugs .202 higher than Houston in this category, and in Yankee Stadium. Snell will also keep Houston off-balance with his three other pitches, which the Astros rank 20th in slugging against from lefties at home and which Snell relies on more, especially on his lethal sider, with runners in scoring position.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
Justin Verlander (9-2, 1.61 ERA) will help keep the „under.“ On the surface, JV seems relatively human lately, but his last two performances, in which he allowed combined six runs in 13 innings, have very simple explanations. He allowed two of three runs in Oakland very late in his outing, a blowout win for Houston, and he was seeing Texas for the fourth time after owning them three consecutive times this season—eventually, a lineup will have some luck against an opposing pitcher.
Verlander is a fastball pitcher and his fastball shows great form. His last opponent ranks eighth in BA in the past month against the fastball and fourth in BA against the fastball in JV’s favored upper regions of the strike zone. But Oakland only batted .177 against his fastball. Tampa Bay is easily the most overachieving team against the fastball based on the metric BA-xBA, which compares what a team’s BA is with what it should be based on quality of contact. Verlander also boasts a slider and curveball, against which opponents are hitting under .150. Dating to 2017, he has shut out or held to one run his last six opponents following a performance in which he surrendered multiple homers. So expect JV to buckle down.
Expect a tight, low-scoring affair. Look out for Matt Duffy, who is slugging .571 in his past seven days with two homers and can steal a third against Verlander, who has allowed three homers in his past two starts.
