ALCS Game 1 Astros vs. Rays: MLB Best Bets
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 7:37 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Petco Park in San Diego
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez will start Game 1 for Houston.
Valdez relies primarily on two pitches. His sinker makes up 54 percent of his arsenal while he throws his curveball 33 percent of the time.
While he is more likely to throw his curveball against left-handed batters, he relies with equal frequency on his sinker against left- and right-handed batters.
Typically, he wants to induce ground balls. His ground ball percentage during the regular season was 60.
His sinker is his favorite ground ball-inducing pitch by percentage.
This pitch is characterized by strong lateral movement with which he likes to place it along the borders of the zone in order to discourage hard contact.
However, opponents are hitting .314 against his sinker. Too often, he places it among the more hittable parts of the plate — pitching charts which show location by percentage provide evidence of this.
It’s worrisome that his sinker can be so vulnerable because he only has two primary pitches to begin with.
Typically, starting pitchers have three main pitches that they can lean on.
So while we can give credit to him for having a nice curveball, it won’t be nearly enough for him to throw one pitch well. If it were enough, then we would have trouble ever finding any pitcher to dislike.
Valdez vs. Tampa Bay Batters
Even if Valdez has one good pitch, Tampa Bay hits both this pitch and his other primary pitch very well.
Against the sinker and curveball from lefties — Valdez is a southpaw — the Rays rank third in slugging .545.
So far, it’s true, Valdez has performed well in the playoffs so far.
But his first two opponents — Oakland and Minnesota — ranked in the bottom half in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties. They were good match-ups for him. But Tampa Bay is not a good match-up for him.
Also, the Rays match up well against Valdez in terms of his style. They hit .251 against pitches who primarily induce ground balls.
In terms of Tampa batters, look out for Randy Arozarena. He’s 12-for-27 (.444) with three home runs so far in these playoffs.
Blake Snell
Starter Blake Snell counters for Tampa Bay.
He promises to bounce back after a rare bad start against a Yankee squad that, given the 2020 season’s scheduling peculiarities, had already seen him multiple times in a relatively short span.
Thus far, he’s 2-0 in the start immediately following a loss. In those two games, both of which were wins, he allowed zero runs in a combined total of 11 innings.
One advantage that Snell has over his counterpart Valdez is variety.
While he throws his fastball with 50 percent frequency, he mixes in a change-up, slider, and curveball. Snell throws each of these pitches with over 10 percent frequency.
Snell possesses the classic off-spead weapons against opposite-handed, that is, right-handed batters. Against them, he favors both his change-up and curveball.
Above all, his curveball is effective against righties. They hit .088 against this pitch.
Overall, his slider is also supremely effective, which is why he’s throwing it much more often in more games.
Opposing batters hit .028 against his slider as they struggle with its consistently low-corner location, strong velocity, tight and lateral movement, and lack of vertical drop. His is a pure, hard, and precisely located slider.
Snell vs. Astro Batters
Last year, Snell thrived in the ALDS, allowing one run in 5.1 innings combined against these Astros.
While one bad start in last year’s season opener hurts his numbers against them, he owned many of these same batters in repeated meetings in 2018.
In 2018, he went 2-0 in two starts against Houston as he allowed one run in a combined total of 14.1 innings.
There aren’t match-up details to support any faith in Astro batters because they don’t hit his stuff from lefties well.
Expect Carlos Correa to struggle. He has as many strikeouts as hits (two) in his career against Snell.
The Verdict
I hope to have explained why recent performances from each starting pitcher lack any predictive value in relation to this game. They are not telling.
For the above match-up and historical reasons, look to invest in Tampa Bay.
Because I want to focus on Tampa Bay’s edge in starting pitching, I will do a first-half play.
Best Bet: Rays First-Half RL (+100) with Heritage
Houston Astros vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, October 11, 2020 at 7:37 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Petco Park in San Diego
Framber Valdez
Framber Valdez will start Game 1 for Houston.
Valdez relies primarily on two pitches. His sinker makes up 54 percent of his arsenal while he throws his curveball 33 percent of the time.
While he is more likely to throw his curveball against left-handed batters, he relies with equal frequency on his sinker against left- and right-handed batters.
Typically, he wants to induce ground balls. His ground ball percentage during the regular season was 60.
His sinker is his favorite ground ball-inducing pitch by percentage.
This pitch is characterized by strong lateral movement with which he likes to place it along the borders of the zone in order to discourage hard contact.
However, opponents are hitting .314 against his sinker. Too often, he places it among the more hittable parts of the plate — pitching charts which show location by percentage provide evidence of this.
It’s worrisome that his sinker can be so vulnerable because he only has two primary pitches to begin with.
Typically, starting pitchers have three main pitches that they can lean on.
So while we can give credit to him for having a nice curveball, it won’t be nearly enough for him to throw one pitch well. If it were enough, then we would have trouble ever finding any pitcher to dislike.
Valdez vs. Tampa Bay Batters
Even if Valdez has one good pitch, Tampa Bay hits both this pitch and his other primary pitch very well.
Against the sinker and curveball from lefties — Valdez is a southpaw — the Rays rank third in slugging .545.
So far, it’s true, Valdez has performed well in the playoffs so far.
But his first two opponents — Oakland and Minnesota — ranked in the bottom half in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties. They were good match-ups for him. But Tampa Bay is not a good match-up for him.
Also, the Rays match up well against Valdez in terms of his style. They hit .251 against pitches who primarily induce ground balls.
In terms of Tampa batters, look out for Randy Arozarena. He’s 12-for-27 (.444) with three home runs so far in these playoffs.
Blake Snell
Starter Blake Snell counters for Tampa Bay.
He promises to bounce back after a rare bad start against a Yankee squad that, given the 2020 season’s scheduling peculiarities, had already seen him multiple times in a relatively short span.
Thus far, he’s 2-0 in the start immediately following a loss. In those two games, both of which were wins, he allowed zero runs in a combined total of 11 innings.
One advantage that Snell has over his counterpart Valdez is variety.
While he throws his fastball with 50 percent frequency, he mixes in a change-up, slider, and curveball. Snell throws each of these pitches with over 10 percent frequency.
Snell possesses the classic off-spead weapons against opposite-handed, that is, right-handed batters. Against them, he favors both his change-up and curveball.
Above all, his curveball is effective against righties. They hit .088 against this pitch.
Overall, his slider is also supremely effective, which is why he’s throwing it much more often in more games.
Opposing batters hit .028 against his slider as they struggle with its consistently low-corner location, strong velocity, tight and lateral movement, and lack of vertical drop. His is a pure, hard, and precisely located slider.
Snell vs. Astro Batters
Last year, Snell thrived in the ALDS, allowing one run in 5.1 innings combined against these Astros.
While one bad start in last year’s season opener hurts his numbers against them, he owned many of these same batters in repeated meetings in 2018.
In 2018, he went 2-0 in two starts against Houston as he allowed one run in a combined total of 14.1 innings.
There aren’t match-up details to support any faith in Astro batters because they don’t hit his stuff from lefties well.
Expect Carlos Correa to struggle. He has as many strikeouts as hits (two) in his career against Snell.
The Verdict
I hope to have explained why recent performances from each starting pitcher lack any predictive value in relation to this game. They are not telling.
For the above match-up and historical reasons, look to invest in Tampa Bay.
Because I want to focus on Tampa Bay’s edge in starting pitching, I will do a first-half play.
Best Bet: Rays First-Half RL (+100) with Heritage
