Mariners Will Stay Afloat in Pitchers Duel With Houston
Houston hosts Seattle on Thursday night at 8:10 ET on the MLB Network. Two great pitchers look to exploit a pair of lackluster lineups, but Seattle’s carries the decisive edge.
Mariners at Astros
MLB Pick: Seattle & Under
The „under“ has hit in six of Seattle’s James Paxton's (9-5, 3.51 ERA) last seven starts. The one exception came on July 12, when he left the game in the first inning due to a back injury. Discounting that start, he has lasted seven or eight innings in his last five starts, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in four of them.
Paxton has reduced his fastball usage every season to increase variety in his arsenal. But he still throws his fastball with 55% frequency and relies on it most in every scenario. He leans on its strong velocity and horizontal movement. But when runners are in scoring position, he amps his curveball usage, even throwing it first-pitch more often to left-handed batters than he does his fastball. Confidently throwing a first-pitch strike with a curveball is difficult—last season he did it with only 18% frequency, compared to 42% this season, with RISP. The first-pitch curveball makes him more unpredictable and, when batters are bracing for his 96 mph heater, its 15 mph drop in velocity keeps them off-balanced. Paxton has also developed a cutter, his third-favorite pitch. He concentrates it with 26% frequency on the lowest-left corner of the zone and induces his highest whiff percentage with it.
Houston’s BA leader Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa are injured. Houston is consequently struggling to score, producing two runs or fewer against six of its last eight opposing left-handed starters. Altuve was the biggest loss. He would have matched up well against Paxton because he slugs .750 against the high-velocity (94-99 mph) fastball from lefties. Houston ranks 22nd in slugging against Paxton’s three favorite pitches.
Even without these injuries, Houston has struggled against Paxton, mustering two runs in 20.2 innings against him. In 142 career at-bats, they’ve never hit a homer against him. They bat .197 and slug .268 against Paxton.
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The „under“ has hit in 60% of Houston’s Justin Verlander’s (11-6, 2.19 ERA) starts and it’s 3-0 when he faces division opponents. However, Verlander has lost his last three home starts. As a fly ball-inducing pitcher, Verlander’s chief aim is to make sure that batted balls stay fly balls and don’t become homers. In his last three home starts, he’s allowed a combined eight homers. He’s allowed nine more homers at home than away, although the average exit velocity of his homers allowed at home is 4.7 mph lower than away. Conversely, his counterpart matches up better in Houston’s ballpark because he’s inducing grounders at a 9.6% higher rate than Verlander, so he’ll keep the ball on the ground. Houston’s ballpark is one of the most popular venues for poorly hit home runs—homers that would be fly outs in most venues because the batter didn’t make solid contact with the ball.
JV throws the fastball with 62% frequency and relies on it most in all scenarios. He tries to make up for its poor location with strong velocity—it averages 95 mph— and high spin rate. Spin rate causes the ball to rise so that batters swing underneath it, which induces them to elevate it. Verlander also relies on a slider with 22% frequency. He places it with 30% frequency in the lowest-right corner of the zone. Because of its good location and velocity, opponents hit .154 against it.
Seattle’s Kyle Seager is hitting for power well. Three of his last four hits in his last three games have been homers. On Tuesday night, Nelson Cruz hit his second homer in the last few days, his 30th of the season. Seager and Cruz have four combined homers against Verlander.
Oddsmakers don’t account for splits or injuries, so JV’s struggles at home and Houston’s injury problems offer great underdog value for a pick on Seattle, led by its top pitcher, Paxton. Seattle is 4-1 when Paxton starts as an underdog, yielding +3.2 units.
Houston hosts Seattle on Thursday night at 8:10 ET on the MLB Network. Two great pitchers look to exploit a pair of lackluster lineups, but Seattle’s carries the decisive edge.
Mariners at Astros
MLB Pick: Seattle & Under
The „under“ has hit in six of Seattle’s James Paxton's (9-5, 3.51 ERA) last seven starts. The one exception came on July 12, when he left the game in the first inning due to a back injury. Discounting that start, he has lasted seven or eight innings in his last five starts, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in four of them.
Paxton has reduced his fastball usage every season to increase variety in his arsenal. But he still throws his fastball with 55% frequency and relies on it most in every scenario. He leans on its strong velocity and horizontal movement. But when runners are in scoring position, he amps his curveball usage, even throwing it first-pitch more often to left-handed batters than he does his fastball. Confidently throwing a first-pitch strike with a curveball is difficult—last season he did it with only 18% frequency, compared to 42% this season, with RISP. The first-pitch curveball makes him more unpredictable and, when batters are bracing for his 96 mph heater, its 15 mph drop in velocity keeps them off-balanced. Paxton has also developed a cutter, his third-favorite pitch. He concentrates it with 26% frequency on the lowest-left corner of the zone and induces his highest whiff percentage with it.
Houston’s BA leader Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa are injured. Houston is consequently struggling to score, producing two runs or fewer against six of its last eight opposing left-handed starters. Altuve was the biggest loss. He would have matched up well against Paxton because he slugs .750 against the high-velocity (94-99 mph) fastball from lefties. Houston ranks 22nd in slugging against Paxton’s three favorite pitches.
Even without these injuries, Houston has struggled against Paxton, mustering two runs in 20.2 innings against him. In 142 career at-bats, they’ve never hit a homer against him. They bat .197 and slug .268 against Paxton.
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The „under“ has hit in 60% of Houston’s Justin Verlander’s (11-6, 2.19 ERA) starts and it’s 3-0 when he faces division opponents. However, Verlander has lost his last three home starts. As a fly ball-inducing pitcher, Verlander’s chief aim is to make sure that batted balls stay fly balls and don’t become homers. In his last three home starts, he’s allowed a combined eight homers. He’s allowed nine more homers at home than away, although the average exit velocity of his homers allowed at home is 4.7 mph lower than away. Conversely, his counterpart matches up better in Houston’s ballpark because he’s inducing grounders at a 9.6% higher rate than Verlander, so he’ll keep the ball on the ground. Houston’s ballpark is one of the most popular venues for poorly hit home runs—homers that would be fly outs in most venues because the batter didn’t make solid contact with the ball.
JV throws the fastball with 62% frequency and relies on it most in all scenarios. He tries to make up for its poor location with strong velocity—it averages 95 mph— and high spin rate. Spin rate causes the ball to rise so that batters swing underneath it, which induces them to elevate it. Verlander also relies on a slider with 22% frequency. He places it with 30% frequency in the lowest-right corner of the zone. Because of its good location and velocity, opponents hit .154 against it.
Seattle’s Kyle Seager is hitting for power well. Three of his last four hits in his last three games have been homers. On Tuesday night, Nelson Cruz hit his second homer in the last few days, his 30th of the season. Seager and Cruz have four combined homers against Verlander.
Oddsmakers don’t account for splits or injuries, so JV’s struggles at home and Houston’s injury problems offer great underdog value for a pick on Seattle, led by its top pitcher, Paxton. Seattle is 4-1 when Paxton starts as an underdog, yielding +3.2 units.
I like the M's here to pull off a surprise here. Go team Johnny!
very frustrating
