Rockets vs Blazers: NBA Picks and Predictions
Houston vs Portland
Monday, November 18, 2019 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
Odds
Oddsmakers opened the Rockets as 6.5-point home favorites and the spread has stayed steady. The total opened at 232 or 233 and has dropped slightly.
Between these two teams, the „under“ has hit in four consecutive games.
Houston’s Improving Defense
If you look at Houston’s defensive rating on the season, you’ll see an average defensive team. But this season-long statistic is misleading because it doesn’t account for Houston’s improvement.
An adjustment period had to be expected in particular with the inclusion of Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup. Westbrook was, initially, a chemistry nightmare because he likes to play at a completely different pace than James Harden.
But Houston is figuring things out. In its past seven games, Houston is one of two teams to own a sub-100 defensive rating and Houston’s defensive rating is the league’s best in its past five games.
Public perception sometimes looks at Harden as a poor defender, in particular criticizing his alleged lack of effort.
Harden, though, is focused and invested defensively at least at the moment. In Houston’s last seven games, its defensive rating is 95.9 when Harden is on the court.
Besides overcoming an initial adjustment phase, the Rockets have slowed down their pace. Doing so has allowed them to execute better defensively.
Slower pace also has the additional effect, which is positive for our wager, of reducing Houston’s number of possessions and thus its number of scoring opportunities.
While slower pace was not part of the plan for coach D’Antoni, I expect Houston to keep this pace because it’s working. The Rockets have won seven games in a row.
Most importantly for tonight, the „under“ has hit in five straight Rocket games.
The Rockets Match Up Well With Portland
Offensively, Portland loves to execute the pick-and-roll ball handler. This style of play suits the centerpiece of its attack, Damian Lillard.
However, the Rockets own the fifth-best PPP allowed when defending this style where they are reputed innovators.
To explain the Rockets’ success , they are notorious for switching a ton on screens.
Switching is easier for a team like Houston that possesses multiple players who are more versatile defensively.
Two examples are Harden and P.J. Tucker. Last year, Harden guarded each position besides center over 10 percent of the time while Tucker guarded each position over 10 percent of the time.
Portland Can Limit Houston’s Scoring
One thing that Houston likes to do offensively is run. The Rockets rank third in frequency of plays in transition. This ranking owes largely to Westbrook’s influence because he loves to up the tempo and even create transition situations where one would not have anticipated them.
Portland is extra familiar with Westbrook’s stylistic proclivity because it faced the Thunder in last year’s playoffs. Damian Lillard is one player who shone defensively with a solid defensive rating while mostly defending Westbrook.
The Blazers can evidently account for Westbrook and Houston’s penchant for transition scoring as they rank best in the NBA in PPP allowed in transition.
Secondly, Houston loves to run iso plays. These are where, above all, Harden shines as a scorer.
On the other hand, Portland ranks in the 62nd percentile in guarding isolation plays as a team. It has a number of players that it can defend Harden with in order to give him diverse looks.
Possible candidates include Kent Bazemore, who as a Hawk grew familiar with what Harden likes to do and has a positive physical skill set especially with his length, and Nasir Little, who’s also a long and versatile defender.
Conclusion
Oddsmakers are having trouble keeping up with Houston’s defensive improvement. Houston’s „under“ streak“ and the „under“ streak between these two teams are noteworthy trends.
Match-up wise, both defenses are built to limit the opposing offense in areas where it relies on most for scoring.
Best Bet: Under 231.5 at -105 odds with Heritage
Houston vs Portland
Monday, November 18, 2019 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center
Odds
Oddsmakers opened the Rockets as 6.5-point home favorites and the spread has stayed steady. The total opened at 232 or 233 and has dropped slightly.
Between these two teams, the „under“ has hit in four consecutive games.
Houston’s Improving Defense
If you look at Houston’s defensive rating on the season, you’ll see an average defensive team. But this season-long statistic is misleading because it doesn’t account for Houston’s improvement.
An adjustment period had to be expected in particular with the inclusion of Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup. Westbrook was, initially, a chemistry nightmare because he likes to play at a completely different pace than James Harden.
But Houston is figuring things out. In its past seven games, Houston is one of two teams to own a sub-100 defensive rating and Houston’s defensive rating is the league’s best in its past five games.
Public perception sometimes looks at Harden as a poor defender, in particular criticizing his alleged lack of effort.
Harden, though, is focused and invested defensively at least at the moment. In Houston’s last seven games, its defensive rating is 95.9 when Harden is on the court.
Besides overcoming an initial adjustment phase, the Rockets have slowed down their pace. Doing so has allowed them to execute better defensively.
Slower pace also has the additional effect, which is positive for our wager, of reducing Houston’s number of possessions and thus its number of scoring opportunities.
While slower pace was not part of the plan for coach D’Antoni, I expect Houston to keep this pace because it’s working. The Rockets have won seven games in a row.
Most importantly for tonight, the „under“ has hit in five straight Rocket games.
The Rockets Match Up Well With Portland
Offensively, Portland loves to execute the pick-and-roll ball handler. This style of play suits the centerpiece of its attack, Damian Lillard.
However, the Rockets own the fifth-best PPP allowed when defending this style where they are reputed innovators.
To explain the Rockets’ success , they are notorious for switching a ton on screens.
Switching is easier for a team like Houston that possesses multiple players who are more versatile defensively.
Two examples are Harden and P.J. Tucker. Last year, Harden guarded each position besides center over 10 percent of the time while Tucker guarded each position over 10 percent of the time.
Portland Can Limit Houston’s Scoring
One thing that Houston likes to do offensively is run. The Rockets rank third in frequency of plays in transition. This ranking owes largely to Westbrook’s influence because he loves to up the tempo and even create transition situations where one would not have anticipated them.
Portland is extra familiar with Westbrook’s stylistic proclivity because it faced the Thunder in last year’s playoffs. Damian Lillard is one player who shone defensively with a solid defensive rating while mostly defending Westbrook.
The Blazers can evidently account for Westbrook and Houston’s penchant for transition scoring as they rank best in the NBA in PPP allowed in transition.
Secondly, Houston loves to run iso plays. These are where, above all, Harden shines as a scorer.
On the other hand, Portland ranks in the 62nd percentile in guarding isolation plays as a team. It has a number of players that it can defend Harden with in order to give him diverse looks.
Possible candidates include Kent Bazemore, who as a Hawk grew familiar with what Harden likes to do and has a positive physical skill set especially with his length, and Nasir Little, who’s also a long and versatile defender.
Conclusion
Oddsmakers are having trouble keeping up with Houston’s defensive improvement. Houston’s „under“ streak“ and the „under“ streak between these two teams are noteworthy trends.
Match-up wise, both defenses are built to limit the opposing offense in areas where it relies on most for scoring.
Best Bet: Under 231.5 at -105 odds with Heritage
