Rockets vs Pelicans: NBA Picks and Predictions
Houston vs New Orleans
Monday, November 11, 2019 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
Houston, We Have A Problem
This year, Houston’s perimeter defense has regressed. It ranked ninth last year in opposing three point rate. This year, it ranks 20th in the category.
A lot of mental lapses, instances of poor communication like on switches, and general indications of disconnect between defenders are evident. The biggest problem seems to be with players keeping track of their man, trying to both defend potential drives to the basket while following lurking shooters who are seeking to get open on the perimeter.
There are some newcomers who share a bit of the blame — rookie Chris Clemons is one. But Houston’s problems mostly involve players who know each other well like Clint Capela and James Harden. The latter, especially, seems to be involved in many of these lapses — perhaps tellingly. It probably doesn’t help that Austin Rivers and Eric Gordon are getting fewer minutes.
Because of these mistakes, Houston allows the fourth-most open threes (where the nearest defender is 4-6 feet away). This flaw will be compounded by the increased presence of Pelican sniper JJ Redick. Redick, who’s converting 45.1% of his threes, loves to operate off screens. He’ll see more minutes tonight in place of the injured Lonzo Ball.
Besides Redick, Brandon Ingram averages over five three-point attempts per game and is also making over 45 percent of his threes. Kenrich Williams, who will also see more minutes, is making 40 percent of his threes. In general, Pelican players love to shoot the three and have been doing it well, lately.
New Orleans’ Defensive Issues: Part One
While Houston has been terrible at guarding the open shooter, New Orleans actually ranks dead-last in allowing the most open threes. Both teams rank similarly in the bottom half in allowing wide open threes (with the nearest defender 6+ feet away).
Houston attempts more threes per game than any other team. So it is just the team, match-up wise, to exploit New Orleans’ lack of perimeter defense. PJ Tucker, Danuel House Jr., and Austin Rivers all average over 43 percent from three.
New Orleans’ Defensive Issues: Part Two
Normally, the Pelicans would actually match-up decently with Houston. A large part of their defensive struggles stem from dealing with screens. Their personnel are frequently unable to fight through screens. As a result, opposing players have an easier time driving to the basket and an easier time forcing help from opposing defenders, which creates more open-three opportunities.
Statistically, the Pelicans rank fifth-worst in terms of PPP (points per possession) allowed on screens. But Houston runs the second-lowest frequency of them.
The Defensive Significance of Lonzo Ball
Instead, Houston runs a ton of iso plays — well more than any other team. The Pelicans are actually one of the better teams in terms of PPP allowed in defending isos.
So normally, the Rockets would be a relatively manageable match-up for the Pelicans. But this isn’t the case at all without the injured Lonzo Ball.
JJ Redick fills in for him. Last year, Redick allowed .31 more PPP in defending isos. Opposing teams frequently targeted him in isolation scenarios and the Rocket are more prepared than anybody to do the same. Look for James Harden, the centerpiece of Houston’s iso-heavy offense, to take advantage.
In general, Redick’s extended presence bodes ill for a team that already ranks third-to-last in opposing true shooting percentage.
What Russell Westbrook Adds
No team allows more fastbreak points than the Pelicans. They also rank rock-bottom in opposing fastbreak efficiency.
This is where Russell Westbrook thrives. He loves to pick up the pace, in the process turning plays that didn't seem like fastbreak opportunities into fastbreak opportunities. His involvement adds more possessions to the offense, whether Harden is on the court with him or not, and he’ll make the most of these added scoring opportunities against this Pelican defense.
Recap
The total is very high because oddsmakers account especially for New Orleans’ bad defense. But they don’t account for how poorly Houston is playing defensively. They also don’t account for specific match-up details: Houston is allowing a ton of threes, which the Pelicans love to take, and vice versa. New Orleans also allows a ton of fastbreaks, which Russell Westbrook will exploit. Plus, the Pelican defense takes a further step back without Lonzo Ball.
Best Bet: Over 242.5 at -105 odds with Heritage
Houston vs New Orleans
Monday, November 11, 2019 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center
Houston, We Have A Problem
This year, Houston’s perimeter defense has regressed. It ranked ninth last year in opposing three point rate. This year, it ranks 20th in the category.
A lot of mental lapses, instances of poor communication like on switches, and general indications of disconnect between defenders are evident. The biggest problem seems to be with players keeping track of their man, trying to both defend potential drives to the basket while following lurking shooters who are seeking to get open on the perimeter.
There are some newcomers who share a bit of the blame — rookie Chris Clemons is one. But Houston’s problems mostly involve players who know each other well like Clint Capela and James Harden. The latter, especially, seems to be involved in many of these lapses — perhaps tellingly. It probably doesn’t help that Austin Rivers and Eric Gordon are getting fewer minutes.
Because of these mistakes, Houston allows the fourth-most open threes (where the nearest defender is 4-6 feet away). This flaw will be compounded by the increased presence of Pelican sniper JJ Redick. Redick, who’s converting 45.1% of his threes, loves to operate off screens. He’ll see more minutes tonight in place of the injured Lonzo Ball.
Besides Redick, Brandon Ingram averages over five three-point attempts per game and is also making over 45 percent of his threes. Kenrich Williams, who will also see more minutes, is making 40 percent of his threes. In general, Pelican players love to shoot the three and have been doing it well, lately.
New Orleans’ Defensive Issues: Part One
While Houston has been terrible at guarding the open shooter, New Orleans actually ranks dead-last in allowing the most open threes. Both teams rank similarly in the bottom half in allowing wide open threes (with the nearest defender 6+ feet away).
Houston attempts more threes per game than any other team. So it is just the team, match-up wise, to exploit New Orleans’ lack of perimeter defense. PJ Tucker, Danuel House Jr., and Austin Rivers all average over 43 percent from three.
New Orleans’ Defensive Issues: Part Two
Normally, the Pelicans would actually match-up decently with Houston. A large part of their defensive struggles stem from dealing with screens. Their personnel are frequently unable to fight through screens. As a result, opposing players have an easier time driving to the basket and an easier time forcing help from opposing defenders, which creates more open-three opportunities.
Statistically, the Pelicans rank fifth-worst in terms of PPP (points per possession) allowed on screens. But Houston runs the second-lowest frequency of them.
The Defensive Significance of Lonzo Ball
Instead, Houston runs a ton of iso plays — well more than any other team. The Pelicans are actually one of the better teams in terms of PPP allowed in defending isos.
So normally, the Rockets would be a relatively manageable match-up for the Pelicans. But this isn’t the case at all without the injured Lonzo Ball.
JJ Redick fills in for him. Last year, Redick allowed .31 more PPP in defending isos. Opposing teams frequently targeted him in isolation scenarios and the Rocket are more prepared than anybody to do the same. Look for James Harden, the centerpiece of Houston’s iso-heavy offense, to take advantage.
In general, Redick’s extended presence bodes ill for a team that already ranks third-to-last in opposing true shooting percentage.
What Russell Westbrook Adds
No team allows more fastbreak points than the Pelicans. They also rank rock-bottom in opposing fastbreak efficiency.
This is where Russell Westbrook thrives. He loves to pick up the pace, in the process turning plays that didn't seem like fastbreak opportunities into fastbreak opportunities. His involvement adds more possessions to the offense, whether Harden is on the court with him or not, and he’ll make the most of these added scoring opportunities against this Pelican defense.
Recap
The total is very high because oddsmakers account especially for New Orleans’ bad defense. But they don’t account for how poorly Houston is playing defensively. They also don’t account for specific match-up details: Houston is allowing a ton of threes, which the Pelicans love to take, and vice versa. New Orleans also allows a ton of fastbreaks, which Russell Westbrook will exploit. Plus, the Pelican defense takes a further step back without Lonzo Ball.
Best Bet: Over 242.5 at -105 odds with Heritage
