Star Pitchers Will Take Over Astros-Indians ALDS Opener
Houston and Cleveland open up the ALDS in Houston on Friday at 2:05 ET on TBS. The total set by oddsmakers is low, but not low enough for two of baseball’s most elite pitchers.
Cleveland Indians (91-71, 77-75-10 O/U) at Houston Astros (103-59, 70-84-8 O/U)
MLB Pick: Under 6.5
The recent history of Cleveland’s Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA) shows a mix of good and bad. His bad outings came when he had to pitch off less than five days’ rest. Conversely, Kluber has allowed zero runs in three of his last four starts off five days’ rest. The one exception came when he allowed three runs at Boston. But his 1.74 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in that outing indicated that he actually pitched well. Kluber’s postseason ERA is 3.54 because he had an awful postseason last year. In 2016, he allowed one run or fewer in four of his six starts. Whether he struggled in 2017, as opposed to in 2016, because he had to face the Yankees every time is a question that we can’t answer. The fact is that Kluber has a proven record of success in the postseason unless he’s facing the Yankees.
Kluber relies on a sinker-slider-cutter combo. The three pitches comprise 84 percent of his arsenal. One of Kluber’s weapons is deception. He allows the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches to closely intersect so that the batter struggles to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. This deception inhibits the batter to react well to a given pitch, especially given both the uniqueness and strong movement of Kluber’s pitches. HIs sinker has strong arm-side movement, his slider strong glove-side movement, and his cutter a funky mix of vertical and horizontal movement. Another tool is sequencing. He doesn’t rely on one pitch too often in a given scenario. For example, in an even count, there are three different pitches that he relies on with at least 20 percent frequency, so that he remains unpredictable. His pitches are also difficult due to their location. His favorite spot is the lowest-right spot of the strike zone, where his pitches land with 12 percent frequency,
Houston batters have yet to figure out Kluber. 10 of them have had at least 10 at-bats against Kluber, but only three of them are batting above .250. Jose Altuve, for instance, is 5-for-24 against him.
Cleveland’s bullpen has improved, ranking ninth in September in ERA. Oliver Perez has a 2.25 September ERA, Adam Cimber has a 2.53 September ERA, and Jon Edwards has thrown 5.1 consecutive shutout innings.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Houston, we have arrived. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RallyTogether?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#RallyTogether</a> <a href="https://t.co/0WxFW7HmwQ">pic.twitter.com/0WxFW7HmwQ</a></p>— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) <a href=" ">4. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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Houston’s Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) has allowed one run or fewer in four of his past five outings. In the other outing, he allowed two runs. Last season involved Verlander’s first playoff experience since 2014. His 2017 postseason ERA was 2.21. Verlander is notorious for being even stronger during the day, where his career ERA is 3.15 compared to 3.53 at night.
Verlander’s top pitch is his fastball. He leans on it with 61 percent frequency and most in all scenarios. Its quality is so high that he’s predictable with it and locates it poorly, but it still yields a .214 opposing BA. His fastball is hard, which makes it hard for the batter to react well, and has significant spin, which prevents the batter from tracking its movement. It also boasts a strong vertical drop and solid arm-side movement, which makes it elusive. Verlander’s slider is even nastier. Its opposing BA is .184. Its movement is tight and fast and he locates it with 40 percent frequency in the two lowest-right spots in the zone.
Cleveland batters are slugging only .357 against him. In 387 at-bats, they’ve mustered six homers (.01%). Edwin Encarnacion is 5-for-34 against him.
The Astros’ bullpen has consistently been one of the best. It ranks fourth in September in ERA. Tony Sipp has thrown seven shutout innings in September. Collin McHugh has thrown 5.1 consecutive shutout innings.
Houston won the regular season series 4-3 against Cleveland. But it’ll be tough to win tonight with a cold lineup that’s produced only 12 runs in its past five games. Also because of its good pitching, the „under“ has hit in Houston's last seven games.
Houston and Cleveland open up the ALDS in Houston on Friday at 2:05 ET on TBS. The total set by oddsmakers is low, but not low enough for two of baseball’s most elite pitchers.
Cleveland Indians (91-71, 77-75-10 O/U) at Houston Astros (103-59, 70-84-8 O/U)
MLB Pick: Under 6.5
The recent history of Cleveland’s Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA) shows a mix of good and bad. His bad outings came when he had to pitch off less than five days’ rest. Conversely, Kluber has allowed zero runs in three of his last four starts off five days’ rest. The one exception came when he allowed three runs at Boston. But his 1.74 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) in that outing indicated that he actually pitched well. Kluber’s postseason ERA is 3.54 because he had an awful postseason last year. In 2016, he allowed one run or fewer in four of his six starts. Whether he struggled in 2017, as opposed to in 2016, because he had to face the Yankees every time is a question that we can’t answer. The fact is that Kluber has a proven record of success in the postseason unless he’s facing the Yankees.
Kluber relies on a sinker-slider-cutter combo. The three pitches comprise 84 percent of his arsenal. One of Kluber’s weapons is deception. He allows the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches to closely intersect so that the batter struggles to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. This deception inhibits the batter to react well to a given pitch, especially given both the uniqueness and strong movement of Kluber’s pitches. HIs sinker has strong arm-side movement, his slider strong glove-side movement, and his cutter a funky mix of vertical and horizontal movement. Another tool is sequencing. He doesn’t rely on one pitch too often in a given scenario. For example, in an even count, there are three different pitches that he relies on with at least 20 percent frequency, so that he remains unpredictable. His pitches are also difficult due to their location. His favorite spot is the lowest-right spot of the strike zone, where his pitches land with 12 percent frequency,
Houston batters have yet to figure out Kluber. 10 of them have had at least 10 at-bats against Kluber, but only three of them are batting above .250. Jose Altuve, for instance, is 5-for-24 against him.
Cleveland’s bullpen has improved, ranking ninth in September in ERA. Oliver Perez has a 2.25 September ERA, Adam Cimber has a 2.53 September ERA, and Jon Edwards has thrown 5.1 consecutive shutout innings.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Houston, we have arrived. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RallyTogether?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#RallyTogether</a> <a href="https://t.co/0WxFW7HmwQ">pic.twitter.com/0WxFW7HmwQ</a></p>— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) <a href=" ">4. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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Houston’s Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) has allowed one run or fewer in four of his past five outings. In the other outing, he allowed two runs. Last season involved Verlander’s first playoff experience since 2014. His 2017 postseason ERA was 2.21. Verlander is notorious for being even stronger during the day, where his career ERA is 3.15 compared to 3.53 at night.
Verlander’s top pitch is his fastball. He leans on it with 61 percent frequency and most in all scenarios. Its quality is so high that he’s predictable with it and locates it poorly, but it still yields a .214 opposing BA. His fastball is hard, which makes it hard for the batter to react well, and has significant spin, which prevents the batter from tracking its movement. It also boasts a strong vertical drop and solid arm-side movement, which makes it elusive. Verlander’s slider is even nastier. Its opposing BA is .184. Its movement is tight and fast and he locates it with 40 percent frequency in the two lowest-right spots in the zone.
Cleveland batters are slugging only .357 against him. In 387 at-bats, they’ve mustered six homers (.01%). Edwin Encarnacion is 5-for-34 against him.
The Astros’ bullpen has consistently been one of the best. It ranks fourth in September in ERA. Tony Sipp has thrown seven shutout innings in September. Collin McHugh has thrown 5.1 consecutive shutout innings.
Houston won the regular season series 4-3 against Cleveland. But it’ll be tough to win tonight with a cold lineup that’s produced only 12 runs in its past five games. Also because of its good pitching, the „under“ has hit in Houston's last seven games.
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