Por-cello to Lead Boston Orchestra to Game Four Victory in Houston on Wednesday
Houston hosts Boston for Game Four on Wednesday at 8:39 ET on TBS. This game should see some scoring, but Boston will do the greatest part of it.
Wednesday, 8:39 ET (TBS)
MLB Pick: Boston ML
Boston’s Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28 ERA) has enjoyed an excellent postseason thus far, allowing one run in 6.2 innings. He shut down a desperate Yankees lineup through five innings and pitched a perfect inning in Sunday’s victory against Houston. Porcello is yielding +9.6 units. The Red Sox have won six of the last seven games in which he’s started, including beating the Yankees twice, Houston once, and Atlanta, another playoff team. In Porcello’s last trip to Houston, he allowed two runs in six innings.
Porcello relies on five different pitches with between 11 and 29 percent frequency. Lately, he’s amped his fastball usage with success. In three October outings, he hasn’t allowed a hit with his fastball even though he’s thrown it more than twice as often as any of his other pitches. Porcello relies on deception in that he lets the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches—for example his fastball and change-up—to closely intersect, so that batters struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. His fastball distinguishes itself with arm-side tail that, combined with its good location, toys with the batter’s perception of whether it will land for a strike or a ball. He places it with 28 percent frequency in the three upper- and left-most spots in the strike zone. He’s able to elevate his fastball well partly because of the high spin rate that he gives it. The spin also deceives the batter, who struggles to discern the fastball’s movement and tends to swing through or underneath it.
He has other effective pitches at his disposal, above all a change-up that yields a .231 opposing BA and a sinker that yields a .215 opposing BA. Both thrive on deception through closely intersecting release points. Both are elusive with strong arm-side movement. But his sinker distinguishes itself from his change-up with greater dip and greater velocity. This distinction is important because the difference between his pitches forces the batter to attempt a larger adjustment with his swing after he waits to discern which pitch is approaching him. Porcello also locates both pitches well. He most frequently places his sinker on the outermost horizontal periphery of the zone and keeps his change-up with 40 percent frequency in the four lowest, right-most spots in the zone.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brock knows. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DoDamage?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#DoDamage</a> <a href="https://t.co/eQyMtV0z0l">pic.twitter.com/eQyMtV0z0l</a></p>— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) <a href=" ">16. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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Houston’s Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 ERA) hasn’t pitched in this postseason yet. He has thrown only four innings since September 15. Consequently, he could be rusty. But even if he isn’t rusty, he’s in a bad spot today. Houston is yielding -2 units in his home starts and has lost in his last three home starts against postseason teams—the last victory came against lowly Cleveland in May.
Morton distinguishes himself with velocity. His fastball is his most frequent pitch and he throws it with average 96 mph. His sinker is his second-most frequent pitch and it averages 95 mph. Both pitches comprise 60 percent of his arsenal. Morton’s style makes him a bad match-up for the Red Sox, who rank fifth in slugging against high-velo (94-99 mph) pitches. Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez slug over .500 against them. Holt has been having a surprisingly strong postseason, slugging 1.000 so far in 10 at-bats and he’s primed to continue his success.
Because of the strong match-up, Boston has been a thorn in Morton’s side. In Houston, Boston achieved six runs in 5.1 innings against him in June. In 101 career at-bats against him, Boston batters hit .347 and slug .574. Bogaerts is 7-for-14 with two doubles and two homers. Andrew Benintendi is 4-for-10 with a double and a homer.
Houston hosts Boston for Game Four on Wednesday at 8:39 ET on TBS. This game should see some scoring, but Boston will do the greatest part of it.
Wednesday, 8:39 ET (TBS)
MLB Pick: Boston ML
Boston’s Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.28 ERA) has enjoyed an excellent postseason thus far, allowing one run in 6.2 innings. He shut down a desperate Yankees lineup through five innings and pitched a perfect inning in Sunday’s victory against Houston. Porcello is yielding +9.6 units. The Red Sox have won six of the last seven games in which he’s started, including beating the Yankees twice, Houston once, and Atlanta, another playoff team. In Porcello’s last trip to Houston, he allowed two runs in six innings.
Porcello relies on five different pitches with between 11 and 29 percent frequency. Lately, he’s amped his fastball usage with success. In three October outings, he hasn’t allowed a hit with his fastball even though he’s thrown it more than twice as often as any of his other pitches. Porcello relies on deception in that he lets the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches—for example his fastball and change-up—to closely intersect, so that batters struggle to discern which pitch is leaving his hand. His fastball distinguishes itself with arm-side tail that, combined with its good location, toys with the batter’s perception of whether it will land for a strike or a ball. He places it with 28 percent frequency in the three upper- and left-most spots in the strike zone. He’s able to elevate his fastball well partly because of the high spin rate that he gives it. The spin also deceives the batter, who struggles to discern the fastball’s movement and tends to swing through or underneath it.
He has other effective pitches at his disposal, above all a change-up that yields a .231 opposing BA and a sinker that yields a .215 opposing BA. Both thrive on deception through closely intersecting release points. Both are elusive with strong arm-side movement. But his sinker distinguishes itself from his change-up with greater dip and greater velocity. This distinction is important because the difference between his pitches forces the batter to attempt a larger adjustment with his swing after he waits to discern which pitch is approaching him. Porcello also locates both pitches well. He most frequently places his sinker on the outermost horizontal periphery of the zone and keeps his change-up with 40 percent frequency in the four lowest, right-most spots in the zone.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Brock knows. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DoDamage?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#DoDamage</a> <a href="https://t.co/eQyMtV0z0l">pic.twitter.com/eQyMtV0z0l</a></p>— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) <a href=" ">16. Oktober 2018</a></blockquote>
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Houston’s Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 ERA) hasn’t pitched in this postseason yet. He has thrown only four innings since September 15. Consequently, he could be rusty. But even if he isn’t rusty, he’s in a bad spot today. Houston is yielding -2 units in his home starts and has lost in his last three home starts against postseason teams—the last victory came against lowly Cleveland in May.
Morton distinguishes himself with velocity. His fastball is his most frequent pitch and he throws it with average 96 mph. His sinker is his second-most frequent pitch and it averages 95 mph. Both pitches comprise 60 percent of his arsenal. Morton’s style makes him a bad match-up for the Red Sox, who rank fifth in slugging against high-velo (94-99 mph) pitches. Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt, Mookie Betts, and J.D. Martinez slug over .500 against them. Holt has been having a surprisingly strong postseason, slugging 1.000 so far in 10 at-bats and he’s primed to continue his success.
Because of the strong match-up, Boston has been a thorn in Morton’s side. In Houston, Boston achieved six runs in 5.1 innings against him in June. In 101 career at-bats against him, Boston batters hit .347 and slug .574. Bogaerts is 7-for-14 with two doubles and two homers. Andrew Benintendi is 4-for-10 with a double and a homer.
