Houston/New Orleans Total

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
The stats for the meetings between these 2 teams ever since the Hornets joined the Western Conference are as follows...

10-3 to Under at an average of 171.6 points for all games*

6-0 to Under at an average of 165.0 points for games in Houston*

*They've met once in the final week of a reg. season in Houston when neither team had anything at stake, and totaled 235 points. Given this fact, I've ignored incl. this result above.


And, more recently.....

Houston

- is 11-2 to Under at an average of 178.5 points playing a home game off an Over result this season (highest total in the 13 games here is 197, and that was an Under result).

- is 5-1 to Under at an average of 181.3 points off consecutive Over results (The sole Over came in a road game, and Houston has played Nawlins at home in such a spot already this season, they totaled 169 pts).

- is 4-0 to Under at an average of 173.7 points off 4 consective games that totaled 189 pts or more, over last season and this season (their last 4 games totaled 214/192/216/211 headed into this Hornets game. Houston has not had 5 straight games total 189 or more pts over this period).

- is 6-2 to Under at an average of 186.7 points off consecutive games that totaled 200 pts or more, over last season and this season (both overs came in road games. Houston has not had 3 consecutive games surpass 200 pts over this period).

- is 7-2 to Under at an average of 187.1 points playing a 3rd game in 4 nights vs a team with a winning record (the 2 Overs here coming vs GDS & PHX).



New Orleans

- is 10-2 to Under at an average of 181.5 pts in straight-up losses to non-run 'n gun teams this season.

- is 6-0 to Under at an average of 186.5 pts off consecutive Over results, when playing teams vying for post season spots.

- is 6-1 to Under at an average of 181.8 points in a road B2B games vs "non-run 'n gun" teams (the sole Over went over the line by 3 pts).

- is 19-10 to Under on the road this season, vs 21-10 to Over at home. Road games are the place to target Nawlins under results.


Entering this game, both of these teams have registered 2 Over results in their previous 2 games. Combined, they have just 4 instances of 3 consecutive Over result streaks this season (NOR 3, HOU 1), with Houston especially simply having no recent history whatsoever of extended streaks of scoring at all, and here both are off consecutive contests that have exceeded 200 pts. This plays right into their history with one another (esp. with the venue being Houston), and thats even before considering Nawlins will be without Wells or West (nearly 30 pts average in scoring missing - West had 26 pts & 12 rebs in the 169 pt contest in Houston earlier this season) for this game. Even thou I'm never keen to bet on a total thats dropped points, with the number still 190.5 here, I simply cannot ignore the above numbers, aligned with the fact that after 3 days of non-stop Over results generally I feel it's about time the wheel once again turned on that front.

Under 190.5
 
Nawlins has 8 road losses by 9 points or more this season, just 2 losses by 1-8 points, and has gone 37 games without a home team winning by 1-8 points. That says if they lose, odds are heavily for the margin being in excess of 9+ points. Of course, one can argue that 37 games without such a result (home team win by 1-8) means that its certainly due, but the stats are what they are. but they do have a phenomenal road record (only BOS's is better, and they're in the weaker conference) and their competing in this game I expect, since if they don't it makes Over more likely imo.
Put a gun to my head and make me play Nawlins in some form, I'd go for the ml before the spread - either they do it (with their great road record, and the fact they've won the last 5 meaningful contests between the 2 sides in HOU) or (given the stats I just related) they dont.
 
read a sick stat about this game earlier today about the Home team cashing @ a huge clip. with these situations...think its in the tout plays.. not sure.
 
I like New Orleans myself and feel this is a perfect game to turn the tables as you have stated that they are more prone to losing on the road by more than 9. I think that this could be the game Houston has the toughest time w/o Yao. Should be a close game to me in the end.
 
Put 3 units on NO+6

Hope both streaks come to an end today.

GL on the under---------my buddy had the over:pillow:
 
gl,

only thing I'd say against all the litany of stats you laid out would be that these two teams have scored unders in their last 2 h2h and based on previous trends I'd bet that an over is coming


<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datahl2">02/22/08</td><td class="datahl2">01/13/08</td><td class="datahl2">04/14/07</td><td class="datahl2">03/25/07</td><td class="datahl2">02/03/07</td><td class="datahl2">11/05/06</td><td class="datahl2">03/23/06</td><td class="datahl2">01/14/06</td><td class="datahl2">12/28/05</td><td class="datahl2">11/05/05</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table style="width: 720px; height: 42px;" class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell">U 190</td><td class="datacell">U 186.5</td><td class="datacell">O 191</td><td class="datacell">O 191</td><td class="datacell">U 181</td><td class="datacell">U 186.5</td><td class="datacell">O 178</td><td class="datacell">U 174.5</td><td class="datacell">O 172.5</td><td class="datacell">U 175.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
this series seems trendy

U
U
O
O
U
U
O
U
O
U
 
Any take on the Utah/Denver game? How is the best Home team, against one of the worst road teams (among playoff caliber teams) only laying 6? Would love your input
 
trainwreck - take out the meaningless mid-April contest (the 235 total), and you'll see all the Overs in that pattern belong to games played in Nawlins, but thats not where this one is being played.

I like the fact Over is favoured at wagerline and the line has dropped. No matter what you think of wagerline's consensus figures, reverse line movement (esp. w/totals) there has proven itself over time from my observation.
 
that being said its pretty amazing how well Rick has been able to change the way his team plays (tempo, shot selection) in the middle of the season. irregardless of Yao's absence, makes it hard to cap accordingly.

trend pattern continues
 
houston is always near tops of 3's taken

Alston and Tmac are the biggest bombers

this may fly in the reg season but come playoff time..u cant get away with being a jumper team...Dikembe is not a low post threat...they will get exposed..enjoy it now Rockettes
 
Yao missed a home game vs Nawlins last season, and it totaled 161 pts. This game comes down to (1) simply one of those 3-ball shooting days, and (2) Nawlins licking cock - any team conceding 39 pts in 1 period on the road to a fellow playoff team isnt one setting itself up to do anything in the post season.
 
Yao missed a home game vs Nawlins last season, and it totaled 161 pts. This game comes down to (1) simply one of those 3-ball shooting days, and (2) Nawlins licking cock - any team conceding 39 pts in 1 period on the road to a fellow playoff team isnt one setting itself up to do anything in the post season.


i agree BC....Nawlins gave that game away in the 2nd Q

u end the 1Q leading and go into HT down 13???? huh? sure up the 3 line and make them beat u inside if they can

im surprised comin from Byron such a lousy effort on D
 
We didn't looked very tired tonight except for CP3. The worst part about it was they did the same couple of things over and over again to hit those 3's and we just never adjusted even though I've seen the same exact thing from other teams against us and we rotated on defense just fine. That was just a unreal amount of 3's both teams connected on as well.
 
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