NBA Parlay for Wednesday's Slate at (+273) Features Rockets and Warriors
Best Bet: Parlay Rockets +7 at -105 & Warriors -7.5 at -110 at +273 odds with BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Wednesday, January 4, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans
Key Pelican Injuries
Most notably, New Orleans misses star forward Zion Williamson to injury.
By a fair margin. Zion leads his team in scoring.
In this sense, his absence removes a significant source of Pelican offense.
But two other would-be key Pelican players will also miss tonight's game.
Power forward Larry Nance Jr. is listed as 'out' for tonight's contest.
Moreover, small forward Brandon Ingram is not going to return from his toe injury-induced absence until the middle of this month.
The Pelicans will thus also miss their second-leading scorer.
Their First Meeting
Nance Jr.'s absence might not seem significant, in the sense that he is not one of his team's leading scorers whereas Zion and Ingram are the team's top point-getters.
But let's look at these teams' first meeting.
New Orleans hosted Houston on November 12 and won 119-106.
In that game, three Pelicans scored 20 or more points.
Those three players were none other than Zion, Ingram, and Nance Jr.
The top healthy scorer from that game was Jose Alvarado, the team's backup point guard who scored 12 points.
Without these three players, it is hardly clear who New Orleans can rely on for scoring -- CJ McCollum can only do so much by himself, especially if he's not happening to have one of his better nights from behind the arc.
Pelican Perimeter Defense
Objectively speaking, New Orleans has a vulnerable perimeter defense.
The Pelicans allow the fourth-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and the sixth-highest frequency of wide-open ones.
Moreover, they rank 26that limiting opposing three-point attempts.
These statistics indicate that opponents ably accrue three-point attempts against the Pelican defense, and that these attempts often go uncontested by Pelican defenders.
Zion's absence magnifies these arenas of vulnerability and renders the entire Pelican defense more vulnerable.
New Orleans will miss his versatility, his amazing combo of size and speed that makes him effective when switching on ball screens and that enables him to contest opposing shot attempts behind the arc and in general effectively.
The team wants to switch one-through-five, and it could do so with Nance Jr.
With him on the floor, the Pelican switch rate increases dramatically.
His absence makes it easier for opposing ball-carriers to use screens to have space for themselves either to drive or to shoot.
Rocket Offense
Primarily, Houston wants to score at the basket or behind the arc.
The Rockets are primed to thrive from three against the Pelican perimeter defense.
They rank 10thin three-point attempts and feature multiple guys who will be inclined to take advantage of open shooting opportunities.
But, personnel-wise, they might be better at scoring at the basket, which they can also do against a Pelican defense that allows the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Guards Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are most inclined to test the Pelicans inside.
Detroit Pistons vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, January 4, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco
Hard to Like Detroit
It is hard in general to bet on a team, like Detroit, that can't shoot, can't defend, and can't function together on a team either on offense or on defense.
Evidence for the first deficiency is in the fact that the Pistons rank 28thin shooting percentage.
Regarding the team's inability to defend, the Pistons own the NBA's second-worst defensive rating.
As for the last deficiency, the team ranks 27thin assists per game and, on defense, commonly miscommunicates and otherwise looks disjointed.
Detroit's defensive problems are pervasive, but their issues with ball-screens perhaps does the most to highlight their inability to coordinate together as a team.
Whereas Detroit can't do these fundamental things, the Warriors have no such problems -- they have shooters, they play much better defense than the Warriors, and they pass each other the ball.
Guard-Heavy Offenses
It is no coincidence that the Pistons' rare successes have come against teams whose scoring is spearheaded by their big men, as was the case with Orlando.
Conversely, a guard-centered offense like Portland's exceeded 130 points.
With Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, Golden State can do the same.
The Warriors are deep and well-stocked at the guard positions, helping them to win five straight overall and to build dominant ATS and SU win percentages at home.
Best Bet: Parlay Rockets +7 at -105 & Warriors -7.5 at -110 at +273 odds with BetOnline
Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Wednesday, January 4, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans
Key Pelican Injuries
Most notably, New Orleans misses star forward Zion Williamson to injury.
By a fair margin. Zion leads his team in scoring.
In this sense, his absence removes a significant source of Pelican offense.
But two other would-be key Pelican players will also miss tonight's game.
Power forward Larry Nance Jr. is listed as 'out' for tonight's contest.
Moreover, small forward Brandon Ingram is not going to return from his toe injury-induced absence until the middle of this month.
The Pelicans will thus also miss their second-leading scorer.
Their First Meeting
Nance Jr.'s absence might not seem significant, in the sense that he is not one of his team's leading scorers whereas Zion and Ingram are the team's top point-getters.
But let's look at these teams' first meeting.
New Orleans hosted Houston on November 12 and won 119-106.
In that game, three Pelicans scored 20 or more points.
Those three players were none other than Zion, Ingram, and Nance Jr.
The top healthy scorer from that game was Jose Alvarado, the team's backup point guard who scored 12 points.
Without these three players, it is hardly clear who New Orleans can rely on for scoring -- CJ McCollum can only do so much by himself, especially if he's not happening to have one of his better nights from behind the arc.
Pelican Perimeter Defense
Objectively speaking, New Orleans has a vulnerable perimeter defense.
The Pelicans allow the fourth-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and the sixth-highest frequency of wide-open ones.
Moreover, they rank 26that limiting opposing three-point attempts.
These statistics indicate that opponents ably accrue three-point attempts against the Pelican defense, and that these attempts often go uncontested by Pelican defenders.
Zion's absence magnifies these arenas of vulnerability and renders the entire Pelican defense more vulnerable.
New Orleans will miss his versatility, his amazing combo of size and speed that makes him effective when switching on ball screens and that enables him to contest opposing shot attempts behind the arc and in general effectively.
The team wants to switch one-through-five, and it could do so with Nance Jr.
With him on the floor, the Pelican switch rate increases dramatically.
His absence makes it easier for opposing ball-carriers to use screens to have space for themselves either to drive or to shoot.
Rocket Offense
Primarily, Houston wants to score at the basket or behind the arc.
The Rockets are primed to thrive from three against the Pelican perimeter defense.
They rank 10thin three-point attempts and feature multiple guys who will be inclined to take advantage of open shooting opportunities.
But, personnel-wise, they might be better at scoring at the basket, which they can also do against a Pelican defense that allows the highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Guards Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. are most inclined to test the Pelicans inside.
Detroit Pistons vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, January 4, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at Chase Center in San Francisco
Hard to Like Detroit
It is hard in general to bet on a team, like Detroit, that can't shoot, can't defend, and can't function together on a team either on offense or on defense.
Evidence for the first deficiency is in the fact that the Pistons rank 28thin shooting percentage.
Regarding the team's inability to defend, the Pistons own the NBA's second-worst defensive rating.
As for the last deficiency, the team ranks 27thin assists per game and, on defense, commonly miscommunicates and otherwise looks disjointed.
Detroit's defensive problems are pervasive, but their issues with ball-screens perhaps does the most to highlight their inability to coordinate together as a team.
Whereas Detroit can't do these fundamental things, the Warriors have no such problems -- they have shooters, they play much better defense than the Warriors, and they pass each other the ball.
Guard-Heavy Offenses
It is no coincidence that the Pistons' rare successes have come against teams whose scoring is spearheaded by their big men, as was the case with Orlando.
Conversely, a guard-centered offense like Portland's exceeded 130 points.
With Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, Golden State can do the same.
The Warriors are deep and well-stocked at the guard positions, helping them to win five straight overall and to build dominant ATS and SU win percentages at home.
