NBA Parlay for Monday's Slate at (+140) Features Dallas and Portland
Parlay: Mavericks -7.5 at -105 & Trail Blazers ML at -440 at +140 odds with Bookmaker
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
Houston's Streak
Whereas Dallas is constantly winning games, the Rockets are mired in a rut.
Currently, Houston has lost eight of its last nine games.
Relevantly to my Best Bet for this game, the Rockets lost their last three games, and they lost all of them by 15 or more points.
Houston's Recent Perimeter Defense
A semi-consistent feature of Houston's most recent losses has been the success its opponents have had from behind the arc.
It was surprising that the Rockets lost their last game, against the Knicks, by 20 points because the Knicks struggled from deep.
But before that game, the Rockets allowed Dallas to convert 18 three-pointers.
Before getting blown out by Dallas, Houston lost to a Celtic team that made 20 threes.
Rocket Perimeter Defense
These most recent results indicate that Houston still has one of the NBA's worst perimeter defenses.
As these results suggest, the Rockets allow the most three-pointers per game.
More deeply, they allow the third-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and the highest frequency of wide-open ones.
Evidently, opponents consistently are able to shoot and make a lot of uncontested threes when they face Houston.
Why This Matters
Houston's poor perimeter defense is particularly relevant to this game because its opponent is not a team like New Orleans that would rather attack the basket.
Instead, Dallas prefers to shoot threes. The Mavs attempt the third-most three-pointers per game.
Dallas is thus the kind of team to blow out Houston by scoring an absurd number of points,
Maverick Weapons
Obviously, watch out for scoring machine Luka who, especially lately, seems primed to score 40 or more points on any given evening.
Also look out for Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Both are higher-volume shooters converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.
Wood, in particular, is enjoying strong form.
Can Houston Keep Pace?
Dallas does a relatively good job of deterring opponents from attacking the basket.
While the Mavs have tried to prioritize rim protection, they benefit in this respect from their characteristic preference for drop coverage.
Mav defenders, though, also excel along the perimeter.
They rank among the best teams at limiting open and wide-open three-point attempts.
Their defensive strengths are relevant to this game because, if Houston does not attempt to score at the rim, then it will likely attempt a three.
The Rockets attempt the 10th-most threes per game and match up poorly against higher-ranked perimeter defenses.
Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland
Detroit's Streak
The Pistons should be expected to lose because they are very much a young team learning how to win -- three of their usual starters, with usual starter point guard Killian Hayes still suspended, are 21 years old or younger.
Pertinently to this game, the Pistons are 1-7 SU after a straight-up win.
Piston Guards' Defense
With the point guard Hayes suspended, Cory Joseph is the next man up on the depth chart.
Joseph is known for being the experienced veteran who will come in and do what's asked of him especially on the offensive end, even if he commits too many unforced turnovers along the way.
But he has never been known for his defense.
Fellow guard Jaden Ivey has shown flashes on offense while suffering from inconsistency on that end of the floor.
He is consistently vulnerable on defense, though.
His on-ball defending, in particular, needs a lot of work, as opposing ball-handlers easily attack him.
While this line of analysis may seem superfluous in view of the entire Piston team's terrible defense -- Detroit ranks second-to-last in defensive rating -- the poor defense of Piston guards is particularly worth highlighting for matchup-related reasons.
Portland Guards
Portland matches up well against Detroit because it is a guard-heavy team.
Star Damian Lillard and fellow guard Anfernee Simons are Portland's leading scorers.
They will thrive against Piston guards who won't be able to contain them.
The Trail Blazers will win tonight because, not only is Detroit a young team learning to win, but also because Portland has the superior guard play -- Detroit's rookie and backup-caliber veterans cannot compete with Portland's lethal scoring duo.
Parlay: Mavericks -7.5 at -105 & Trail Blazers ML at -440 at +140 odds with Bookmaker
Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET at Toyota Center in Houston
Houston's Streak
Whereas Dallas is constantly winning games, the Rockets are mired in a rut.
Currently, Houston has lost eight of its last nine games.
Relevantly to my Best Bet for this game, the Rockets lost their last three games, and they lost all of them by 15 or more points.
Houston's Recent Perimeter Defense
A semi-consistent feature of Houston's most recent losses has been the success its opponents have had from behind the arc.
It was surprising that the Rockets lost their last game, against the Knicks, by 20 points because the Knicks struggled from deep.
But before that game, the Rockets allowed Dallas to convert 18 three-pointers.
Before getting blown out by Dallas, Houston lost to a Celtic team that made 20 threes.
Rocket Perimeter Defense
These most recent results indicate that Houston still has one of the NBA's worst perimeter defenses.
As these results suggest, the Rockets allow the most three-pointers per game.
More deeply, they allow the third-highest frequency of open three-point attempts and the highest frequency of wide-open ones.
Evidently, opponents consistently are able to shoot and make a lot of uncontested threes when they face Houston.
Why This Matters
Houston's poor perimeter defense is particularly relevant to this game because its opponent is not a team like New Orleans that would rather attack the basket.
Instead, Dallas prefers to shoot threes. The Mavs attempt the third-most three-pointers per game.
Dallas is thus the kind of team to blow out Houston by scoring an absurd number of points,
Maverick Weapons
Obviously, watch out for scoring machine Luka who, especially lately, seems primed to score 40 or more points on any given evening.
Also look out for Christian Wood and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Both are higher-volume shooters converting over 40 percent of their three-point attempts.
Wood, in particular, is enjoying strong form.
Can Houston Keep Pace?
Dallas does a relatively good job of deterring opponents from attacking the basket.
While the Mavs have tried to prioritize rim protection, they benefit in this respect from their characteristic preference for drop coverage.
Mav defenders, though, also excel along the perimeter.
They rank among the best teams at limiting open and wide-open three-point attempts.
Their defensive strengths are relevant to this game because, if Houston does not attempt to score at the rim, then it will likely attempt a three.
The Rockets attempt the 10th-most threes per game and match up poorly against higher-ranked perimeter defenses.
Detroit Pistons vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Monday, January 2, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland
Detroit's Streak
The Pistons should be expected to lose because they are very much a young team learning how to win -- three of their usual starters, with usual starter point guard Killian Hayes still suspended, are 21 years old or younger.
Pertinently to this game, the Pistons are 1-7 SU after a straight-up win.
Piston Guards' Defense
With the point guard Hayes suspended, Cory Joseph is the next man up on the depth chart.
Joseph is known for being the experienced veteran who will come in and do what's asked of him especially on the offensive end, even if he commits too many unforced turnovers along the way.
But he has never been known for his defense.
Fellow guard Jaden Ivey has shown flashes on offense while suffering from inconsistency on that end of the floor.
He is consistently vulnerable on defense, though.
His on-ball defending, in particular, needs a lot of work, as opposing ball-handlers easily attack him.
While this line of analysis may seem superfluous in view of the entire Piston team's terrible defense -- Detroit ranks second-to-last in defensive rating -- the poor defense of Piston guards is particularly worth highlighting for matchup-related reasons.
Portland Guards
Portland matches up well against Detroit because it is a guard-heavy team.
Star Damian Lillard and fellow guard Anfernee Simons are Portland's leading scorers.
They will thrive against Piston guards who won't be able to contain them.
The Trail Blazers will win tonight because, not only is Detroit a young team learning to win, but also because Portland has the superior guard play -- Detroit's rookie and backup-caliber veterans cannot compete with Portland's lethal scoring duo.
