Today's Picks Include a +271 NBA Parlay
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at FTX Arena in Miami
Context Matters
This is a game where it is easy to do the wrong thing as a bettor, particularly if you are inclined to account for trends.
It is true that the Heat are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games against Charlotte and that the "under" is on a 3-0 run between these teams this season.
However, we have to consider the context in which these games took place because it differs markedly from the current context.
Their first meeting took place way back in October and happened without efficient and high-volume Hornet three-point shooter Terry Rozier.
These teams' last two games took place on February 5 and February 17, respectively.
Charlotte entered the first of those two meetings on a three-game losing streak and it entered the second one having lost two in a row and eight of its last nine.
It's not fair to simply suggest that the Hornets can't perform well against the Heat when they played them either several months ago and without Rozier or in the midst of a terrible stretch of play where they were struggling against just about everybody and anybody.
Exploiting The Heat Perimeter Defense
Arguably the biggest reason why the Hornets should be able to succeed against Miami's defense is that it is relatively vulnerable along the perimeter.
It likes to be aggressive, employing traps and springing double teams.
This aggressiveness entails individual defenders leaving their man in order to harass an opposing ball-handler.
The opposing ball-handler will then pass the ball in order to force the defense to rotate.
By exploiting a numerical advantage, the opposing offense will find an open shooter.
Situations like this explain why the Heat allow the highest frequency of open three-point attempts.
Charlotte is just the team to profit from this point of vulnerability because it attempts the sixth-most threes per game.
The NBA Odds imply that it matters significantly that Charlotte is the road team.
However, the Hornets average 38 percent from deep in road games compared to 34.6 percent from deep at home.
A big part of their shooting ability is Rozier's presence. He shot well over 43 percent from deep in this most recent month.
Given the Hornets' increased shooting efficiency on the road, it feels like we are getting free points on the spread just for the fact that they are playing in Miami tonight.
Rest for Lowry
It is reportedly likely that Miami will rest Kyle Lowry.
While Lowry's offense is certainly valuable, his defense has often been underrated.
Currently, Lowry's defensive rating 106.5 -- remember that defensive ratings are like golf scores in that a lower rating is better than a higher one.
With his defense in mind, Lowry's absence hurts Miami's chances today and it also hurts the chances for the "under" to hit.
When Lowry has missed games this season, Tyler Herro has played more.
Importantly for the "over," Herro offers Miami a defensive downgrade relative to Lowry while, on offense, he is a characteristically efficient shooter from deep who ably creates his own shot from basically any range.
Heat Offense vs. Hornet Perimeter Defense
Like Charlotte, Miami is particularly capable of making a lot of threes this game.
Similar to Miami, Charlotte's perimeter defense is highly vulnerable. The Hornets allow the highest frequency of wide-open three-point attempts.
Charlotte's problems are not so innocuous in their diagnosis as Miami's.
Whereas Miami does certain things and is willing to accept what it allows from deep, the Hornets show issues with communication, a lack of discipline, problematic awareness, odd instances of scheming, and instances of inexperience.
Miami is the team most built to take advantage of Charlotte's perimeter defense in the sense that it owns the NBA's top three-point percentage.
The Verdict
This game will feature a lot of scoring stemming especially from each team's success behind the arc.
Charlotte's strong three-point shooting will allow it to continue its 5-1 ATS run on road games.
While the Hornets are coming off a bad loss, they've been great about bouncing back, with one example being their upset over Utah which followed a 15-point loss to New York.
Besides giving up a lot of threes, the Heat will be hurt by Lowry's absence, which means less good defense will be on the court for them.
Best Bet: Parlay Hornets +5.5 at -108 & Over 224 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat
Tuesday, April 5, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at FTX Arena in Miami
Context Matters
This is a game where it is easy to do the wrong thing as a bettor, particularly if you are inclined to account for trends.
It is true that the Heat are 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games against Charlotte and that the "under" is on a 3-0 run between these teams this season.
However, we have to consider the context in which these games took place because it differs markedly from the current context.
Their first meeting took place way back in October and happened without efficient and high-volume Hornet three-point shooter Terry Rozier.
These teams' last two games took place on February 5 and February 17, respectively.
Charlotte entered the first of those two meetings on a three-game losing streak and it entered the second one having lost two in a row and eight of its last nine.
It's not fair to simply suggest that the Hornets can't perform well against the Heat when they played them either several months ago and without Rozier or in the midst of a terrible stretch of play where they were struggling against just about everybody and anybody.
Exploiting The Heat Perimeter Defense
Arguably the biggest reason why the Hornets should be able to succeed against Miami's defense is that it is relatively vulnerable along the perimeter.
It likes to be aggressive, employing traps and springing double teams.
This aggressiveness entails individual defenders leaving their man in order to harass an opposing ball-handler.
The opposing ball-handler will then pass the ball in order to force the defense to rotate.
By exploiting a numerical advantage, the opposing offense will find an open shooter.
Situations like this explain why the Heat allow the highest frequency of open three-point attempts.
Charlotte is just the team to profit from this point of vulnerability because it attempts the sixth-most threes per game.
The NBA Odds imply that it matters significantly that Charlotte is the road team.
However, the Hornets average 38 percent from deep in road games compared to 34.6 percent from deep at home.
A big part of their shooting ability is Rozier's presence. He shot well over 43 percent from deep in this most recent month.
Given the Hornets' increased shooting efficiency on the road, it feels like we are getting free points on the spread just for the fact that they are playing in Miami tonight.
Rest for Lowry
It is reportedly likely that Miami will rest Kyle Lowry.
While Lowry's offense is certainly valuable, his defense has often been underrated.
Currently, Lowry's defensive rating 106.5 -- remember that defensive ratings are like golf scores in that a lower rating is better than a higher one.
With his defense in mind, Lowry's absence hurts Miami's chances today and it also hurts the chances for the "under" to hit.
When Lowry has missed games this season, Tyler Herro has played more.
Importantly for the "over," Herro offers Miami a defensive downgrade relative to Lowry while, on offense, he is a characteristically efficient shooter from deep who ably creates his own shot from basically any range.
Heat Offense vs. Hornet Perimeter Defense
Like Charlotte, Miami is particularly capable of making a lot of threes this game.
Similar to Miami, Charlotte's perimeter defense is highly vulnerable. The Hornets allow the highest frequency of wide-open three-point attempts.
Charlotte's problems are not so innocuous in their diagnosis as Miami's.
Whereas Miami does certain things and is willing to accept what it allows from deep, the Hornets show issues with communication, a lack of discipline, problematic awareness, odd instances of scheming, and instances of inexperience.
Miami is the team most built to take advantage of Charlotte's perimeter defense in the sense that it owns the NBA's top three-point percentage.
The Verdict
This game will feature a lot of scoring stemming especially from each team's success behind the arc.
Charlotte's strong three-point shooting will allow it to continue its 5-1 ATS run on road games.
While the Hornets are coming off a bad loss, they've been great about bouncing back, with one example being their upset over Utah which followed a 15-point loss to New York.
Besides giving up a lot of threes, the Heat will be hurt by Lowry's absence, which means less good defense will be on the court for them.
Best Bet: Parlay Hornets +5.5 at -108 & Over 224 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
