NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Charlotte Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Monday, March 22, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas
Trends
Both teams are currently contrasting strongly in terms of form.
Whereas the Spurs are enjoying a four-game cover streak, the Hornets are suffering an 0-3 ATS losing streak.
All three of the Hornet losses have come by double digits. Two came by over 20 points.
Key Injury
On top of playing poorly as a team, Charlotte lost its starting point guard, LaMelo Ball, to a season-ending injury.
Ball had played 22 minutes in Charlotte’s last game before suffering a wrist fracture.
A legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate, Ball was the team’s third-leading scorer, led the team in assists per game, and led the Hornets in usage rate.
With his prowess in transition and overall his court vision and passing ability, he made guys around him better.
Hornet Offense vs. Spur Defense
Even if Ball had been healthy, the San Antonio defense would still have presented the Hornet half-court offense with a redoubtable match-up.
Half-court efficiency has been a problem for Charlotte, causing it to be more reliant on scoring in transition instead.
In the half-court, Charlotte primarily wants to attack the basket.
With guys like Terry Rozier who enjoy driving the ball, Charlotte averages the seventh-highest field goal attempt rate within five feet of the basket.
The Spurs, however, are the NBA’s top team at limiting opposing efficiency within five feet of the basket.
LaMarcus’ Aldridge’s absence helps in this respect because he is slow-footed and rather valuable for his ability to stretch the floor on the offensive end.
In his place, rim protectors like Jakob Poeltl help secure San Antonio’s interior defense.
Strong rim protection also allows Spur perimeter defenders to guard opponents more closely behind the arc.
San Antonio’s perimeter defense is also supported by a scheme that allows individual players to switch in order to avoid having to fight through screens to prevent opponents from using ball-screens to procure open looks.
As measured by frequency rate, the Spurs excel at limiting open and wide open three-point attempts.
Strong perimeter defense will be useful against a Hornet team that is one of the more reliant teams on three-point shooting.
As for transition opportunities, the Hornets will still want to create and make use of them, if possible.
Without Ball, the Hornets are undoubtedly weaker in this respect. But transition offense still forms a significant part of their offensive identity as multiple Hornet players are well-built to run down the court.
However, the Hornet transition attack will have to deal with a Spur defense that allows the eighth-fewest transition points per game.
Spur Offense vs. Hornet Defense
In its last four games, Charlotte has allowed 116, 129, 116, and 125 points per game, respectively.
As measured by points per game, San Antonio brings comparable offensive competence as at least one of Charlotte’s last four opponents.
San Antonio also compares to Charlotte’s last opponent in terms of being reliant on ball-screen actions designed for the ball-handler.
Most importantly, leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is back playing after dealing with his father’s death.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Monday, March 22, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Bucks Offense vs. Pacer Defense
Offensively, Milwaukee is rather reliant on scoring inside.
But the Pacers enjoy solid interior defense thanks especially to center Myles Turner.
With his rim protection, Turner has entered into conversations for Defensive Player of the Year.
He currently leads the NBA with 3.4 blocks per game.
Turner is also a major reason why the Pacers allow the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
You might say: granted that the Pacer interior defense is top-notch, doesn’t Milwaukee possess a superstar who makes his living as a rim-attacker?
This is true, the Bucks do have a perennial MVP candidate in Giannis. However, Giannis is listed as ‘doubtful’ for tonight’s game.
Milwaukee will still want to score in other ways. It is the most reliant team on transition opportunities.
But the Pacers allow the fourth-fewest transition points per game.
They do not waste their energy on offensive rebounds that would take away their ability to get back on defense.
Instead, they are focused on not allowing quick and easy baskets.
Milwaukee is also very reliant on attempting three-pointers, although its drive-and-kick game does take a hit with Giannis’ absence.
As measured by frequency rate, Indiana excels at limiting open and wide open three-point attempts partly because its perimeter defenders have a solid shot-blocker behind them who can clean up any messes at the rim.
Pacer Offense vs. Buck Defense
Indiana, which attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket, has just the sort of offense that I lack confidence in against a team like Milwaukee.
The Bucks are one of the best teams at limiting field goal efficiency and attempts within five feet of the basket.
They are known for their drop coverage on ball-screens and for their help defense in the interior.
So they are built to take away what Indiana most wants to do offensively with guys like Malcolm Brogdon and even characteristic shooters like Doug McDermott focused on trying to attack the basket.
Parlay Verdict
Charlotte will have to play its first complete game without its key point guard.
With or without Ball, the Hornets match up poorly against a strong San Antonio defense guided by higher-level rim protection and switch-heavy perimeter defense.
The Spurs will have the best player on the court in DeRozan, who will lead the Spurs’ ball-screen-heavy offense against Charlotte’s recently and consistently hapless half-court defense.
Indiana and Milwaukee promise to provide a lower-scoring game tonight where each defense takes away what the opposing offense most wants to do.
Best Bet: Parlay Spurs ATS & Bucks/Pacers Under 232 at -116 with Bookmaker (Odds TBA)
Charlotte Hornets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Monday, March 22, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas
Trends
Both teams are currently contrasting strongly in terms of form.
Whereas the Spurs are enjoying a four-game cover streak, the Hornets are suffering an 0-3 ATS losing streak.
All three of the Hornet losses have come by double digits. Two came by over 20 points.
Key Injury
On top of playing poorly as a team, Charlotte lost its starting point guard, LaMelo Ball, to a season-ending injury.
Ball had played 22 minutes in Charlotte’s last game before suffering a wrist fracture.
A legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate, Ball was the team’s third-leading scorer, led the team in assists per game, and led the Hornets in usage rate.
With his prowess in transition and overall his court vision and passing ability, he made guys around him better.
Hornet Offense vs. Spur Defense
Even if Ball had been healthy, the San Antonio defense would still have presented the Hornet half-court offense with a redoubtable match-up.
Half-court efficiency has been a problem for Charlotte, causing it to be more reliant on scoring in transition instead.
In the half-court, Charlotte primarily wants to attack the basket.
With guys like Terry Rozier who enjoy driving the ball, Charlotte averages the seventh-highest field goal attempt rate within five feet of the basket.
The Spurs, however, are the NBA’s top team at limiting opposing efficiency within five feet of the basket.
LaMarcus’ Aldridge’s absence helps in this respect because he is slow-footed and rather valuable for his ability to stretch the floor on the offensive end.
In his place, rim protectors like Jakob Poeltl help secure San Antonio’s interior defense.
Strong rim protection also allows Spur perimeter defenders to guard opponents more closely behind the arc.
San Antonio’s perimeter defense is also supported by a scheme that allows individual players to switch in order to avoid having to fight through screens to prevent opponents from using ball-screens to procure open looks.
As measured by frequency rate, the Spurs excel at limiting open and wide open three-point attempts.
Strong perimeter defense will be useful against a Hornet team that is one of the more reliant teams on three-point shooting.
As for transition opportunities, the Hornets will still want to create and make use of them, if possible.
Without Ball, the Hornets are undoubtedly weaker in this respect. But transition offense still forms a significant part of their offensive identity as multiple Hornet players are well-built to run down the court.
However, the Hornet transition attack will have to deal with a Spur defense that allows the eighth-fewest transition points per game.
Spur Offense vs. Hornet Defense
In its last four games, Charlotte has allowed 116, 129, 116, and 125 points per game, respectively.
As measured by points per game, San Antonio brings comparable offensive competence as at least one of Charlotte’s last four opponents.
San Antonio also compares to Charlotte’s last opponent in terms of being reliant on ball-screen actions designed for the ball-handler.
Most importantly, leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is back playing after dealing with his father’s death.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Monday, March 22, 2021 at 9 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Bucks Offense vs. Pacer Defense
Offensively, Milwaukee is rather reliant on scoring inside.
But the Pacers enjoy solid interior defense thanks especially to center Myles Turner.
With his rim protection, Turner has entered into conversations for Defensive Player of the Year.
He currently leads the NBA with 3.4 blocks per game.
Turner is also a major reason why the Pacers allow the second-lowest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
You might say: granted that the Pacer interior defense is top-notch, doesn’t Milwaukee possess a superstar who makes his living as a rim-attacker?
This is true, the Bucks do have a perennial MVP candidate in Giannis. However, Giannis is listed as ‘doubtful’ for tonight’s game.
Milwaukee will still want to score in other ways. It is the most reliant team on transition opportunities.
But the Pacers allow the fourth-fewest transition points per game.
They do not waste their energy on offensive rebounds that would take away their ability to get back on defense.
Instead, they are focused on not allowing quick and easy baskets.
Milwaukee is also very reliant on attempting three-pointers, although its drive-and-kick game does take a hit with Giannis’ absence.
As measured by frequency rate, Indiana excels at limiting open and wide open three-point attempts partly because its perimeter defenders have a solid shot-blocker behind them who can clean up any messes at the rim.
Pacer Offense vs. Buck Defense
Indiana, which attempts the most field goals within five feet of the basket, has just the sort of offense that I lack confidence in against a team like Milwaukee.
The Bucks are one of the best teams at limiting field goal efficiency and attempts within five feet of the basket.
They are known for their drop coverage on ball-screens and for their help defense in the interior.
So they are built to take away what Indiana most wants to do offensively with guys like Malcolm Brogdon and even characteristic shooters like Doug McDermott focused on trying to attack the basket.
Parlay Verdict
Charlotte will have to play its first complete game without its key point guard.
With or without Ball, the Hornets match up poorly against a strong San Antonio defense guided by higher-level rim protection and switch-heavy perimeter defense.
The Spurs will have the best player on the court in DeRozan, who will lead the Spurs’ ball-screen-heavy offense against Charlotte’s recently and consistently hapless half-court defense.
Indiana and Milwaukee promise to provide a lower-scoring game tonight where each defense takes away what the opposing offense most wants to do.
Best Bet: Parlay Spurs ATS & Bucks/Pacers Under 232 at -116 with Bookmaker (Odds TBA)
