HonestD's Season Long NBA Thread

[HonestD]

Well, it's finally here. My favorite and best sport. Usually, I post analysis with my predictions, but this season I'm going to deviate away from that try something new which should allow me to remain more consistent in the posting.

Later in the season I may attach a unit scale to the picks, but until further notice, every pick will be uniformly bet. Good luck to everyone!

10/16/18



Sixers +5

 

[B.A.R.]

Awesome,

Glad to see ya posting.

Tend to agree here...Good luck.

 

[HonestD]

Warriors/Thunder under 220.5


A lot of the questions coming into this game surround the Thunder and how they'll do without Russ. They definitely will miss the chemistry they've built up, especially the Westbrooks/Adams combo. The lack of depth definitely hurts as well. We'll likely being seeing a good amount of Raymond Felton who is a shadow of his former self and not much of an offensive threat. He's been known to try to do a little too much on his own, offensively and will need to be a facilitator when on the floor, but to who?

Adams is coming into the game with lower back soreness, and even if he does play will likely be a bit tight. The Thunder are likely to bring in Noel and or Patterson, who I'm fans off from a defensive perspective but their offense is suspect.

In four games last season against the Warriors, Paul George averaged 20, but off of almost 19 shots. His defense is top notch, but I fully expect the struggles to efficiently put the ball in the bucket against Golden State to continue for him and the entire Thunder team tonight. I project a fair amount of his shots to be isolated, with a defender in front. For the Thunder to have any chance to stay in this game, it's going to have to be from an all out defensive effort.

There isn't much to say about Golden State. They come in heavily favored and will likely live up to the double digit spread tonight. Damian Jones is starting at center, and is my main concern. How well he can protect the paint? I watched a bit of pre-season and he had difficulties not only protecting the rim, but staying home in general. He's got one job and that's to protect the paint. He's athletic and young, but how well does he learn? We'll see tonight.

Overall, these two teams always play each other tough, and historically the under has been money. I think the Thunder struggle to crack 100 tonight and it's just a matter of how bad Golden State wants to run the score up.

 

[HonestD]

1-1 YTD
System Plays: 0-1
Capped Plays: 1-0


10/17/18 (System Plays)

Bucks/Hornets under 217
Nets/Pistons under 212
Hawks/Knicks under 213.5
Nuggets/Clippers under 226
Wolves/Spurs under 210.5
Pelicans/Rockets under 229.5

 

[HonestD]

Nuggets/Clippers under 226

Watched the Nuggets a good amount this preseason. They look like they have promise after falling short of the playoffs the last couple years and I believe, now know what it takes, just to make the playoffs. Their main goal will be finding consistency and not losing to the bad teams. The easiest way to find consistency on a night in and night out basis all starts with defense. When shots aren't falling, you can always rely on "hustle and hear" to grind out wins.

Paul Millsap has been on the record in saying that he wants to turn Denver into a top defensive team. Granted, it was only pre-season, but the Nuggets did rank 7th in defensive effieciency and the Clippers actually ranked 1st. The Clippers should be one of the top defensive teams this year.

Avery Bradley has also been on the record in saying that he thinks him and Beverly will be the best defensive guard duo in the league. Add in the likes of Gortat, Harrell, and Boban, there's no reason why this Clippers team should be any less than 3rd or 4th in the league in defensive rating.

I think Denver plays at a relatively slower pace this year in regards to the run and gun pace that we're used to seeing. They are looking to establish a new identity and hopefully will find success this season doing something different.

Expect this game to be highly competitive all game long and 226 in my opinion is a solid ten points too high.
Bet this under with confidence.

 

[HonestD]

Mavericks +1.5

It's crazy how interesting of this game this is despite both teams having recent history of being irrelevant. The individual match-ups between the DeAndres and Booker vs Smith Jr are interesting and obviously we're all curious to see how Luka Doncic does.

Doncic is my pre-season pick to win rookie of the year. If he stays healthy, the sky is the limit for this kid. Despite being only 19, this kid plays far beyond his years. He's the total package and possesses so many skills. He'll be a tough guard for anybody and I think the Suns are a perfect team for him to play his first career game against.

I'm not going to get too much into the individual match-ups despite them being super interesting because that's not where I think the story of this game lies.
Despite getting the first pick in the draft, I think the Suns have regressed with the guys on their roster. They don't have nearly as many athletes and have added more role players. The problem with role players is that most of them can't create their own shots. Even Jamal Crawford is a shell of his former self and not only is he not that great offensively anymore, his defensive is a major liability.

Ariza has been known as a jack of all trades guy, but even last year in Houston I wasn't sold on him and I think him and Anderson both are now playing on a much lower grade team and won't have nearly as much success this season shooting the three. I'm wondering other than Booker, who isn't known to be an amazing facilitator, how these guys are going to get good, consistent looks.

Overall, I think the depth between the two teams is pretty lopsided and the Mavericks should beat a team who's lost their last three season openers, all at home by an average of 27 points.

 

[Big daddy naught]

Is booker ready to go after having surgery in preseason?

 

[HonestD]

Is booker ready to go after having surgery in preseason?

Yes.

 

[HonestD]

Knicks -3.5

The Hawks travel to the Big Apple for the battle of the Treys. I expect the more experienced guard tandom of Bourke and Hardaway Jr to have their way with Young and Bazemore. Burke/Hardaway are an underrated guard duo in my opinion, and should find a lot of good scoring opportunities tonight.

Young will find his way eventually, but it's going to take time for him to get accustomed to the NBA and it's size and speed. Even in college he was jacking up a lot of unnecessary shots as well as reckless layup attempts often resulting in a bad pass or turnover.

Both teams have some key injuries. Porzingas, Muliday, and Lee are out for the Knicks. John Collins and Dwayne Deadmon are ruled out for the Hawks. The Knicks are likely to play Ntilikina, who's a solid defender at the SF and he'll be guarding Prince.

The Hawks are going to be shorthanded in scoring and I believe the Knicks have the upper hand both offensively and defensively.
Kanter is going to be a stud this season. It's crazy how many guys have come through OKC the last few years. I think he'll be a 20/10+ guy or close to it and few teams will have an answer for him.

Especially short handed, I don't see the Hawks having enough talent to beat too many teams right now unless they catch another bad team on a bad night.